How is the fight for Florida shaping up?

BRYCE ON POLITICS

- An increase in voter registration indicates an historic turnout.

It's time for me to begin making preparations to do my annual statistical analysis on voting in Florida. This is when I dust off my spreadsheets and ready myself for the influx of voting data from the state. August 18th is the Florida Primary, and early voting for it is August 8th - 15th. As I'm sure you are aware, Florida is a swing state, just as it was in 2016.

In preparation for the primary, I wanted to check on registration by party affiliation to get a sense of who will be voting in the Fall. Not long ago (June 16th) I read a report titled, "Florida Among Group of States Seeing Decline in Voter Registration." I would really like to know how the reporter came to this conclusion as I found just the opposite, as there are more people registered as of today than in all of 2016.

As usual, I visited the web site of the Florida Division of Elections (under the Secretary of State), which is the agency charged with maintaining such data. Here is what I found:

GOP DEM INDEP  

2020 4,851,116 5,127,920 3,595,208 as of April 30th

2016 4,577,406 4,914,593 3,129,277 Total

+6% +4% +15%

Note: The registration deadline to vote in the Florida primary ended yesterday (July 20th) and I do not yet have the final numbers.

The data reveals an upswing in registration by Republicans (up 6%), the Democrats (up 4%), and Independents (up a whopping 15%). Similarly, my county (Pinellas) is also showing a slight upswing in registration by both parties.

From studying the data, I can make the following observations:

Even though Republicans were behind the Democrats in terms of 2016 registrations, the state went to Donald Trump for two reasons; first, actual voting by Democrats lagged behind Republicans, and; second, Mr. Trump won the vote of the Independents.

Today, both parties are making gains over 2016 and will likely set new records in voting, but the biggest increase is that of Independents. The big question in 2020 is, "Will the Independents still support President Trump?" The Democrats say No, but I believe otherwise. In 2016, they went with Mr. Trump as they knew the nation's capitol is broken and, instead of electing another politician, they gave an outsider a try. To his credit, the president kept many of his campaign promises, including moving the American embassy to Jerusalem, exterminating ISIS, energy independence, reducing government bureaucracy thereby allowing America to go back to work in record numbers, and, an overall improvement in the economy.

In 2020 though, the Independents are fed up with the helter-skelter of the congressional Democrats, and the hate emanating from the far-Left anarchists, including an attempted elimination of our history and sweeping changes to our culture. Independents will likely say, "Enough is enough!" at the ballot box. In other words, the Silent Majority, which includes Independents, will carry the day.

Next, the press contends Republicans are gravitating away from Mr. Trump and turning to former VP Joe Biden. I hear just the opposite; moderate Democrats have had it with the socialist agenda of the far-Left and have no faith in Mr. Biden's abilities to govern. I have personally heard this on multiple occasions from older Democrats who would like to see the party turn the clock back to the 20th century.

The last thing I learned from studying this, is how wrong the "Fake News" can be. Finding the actual data from the State is incredibly easy, so why does the reporter in the article claim Florida is "experiencing a major decline in new voter registration numbers compared to this time in 2016." This is just plain sloppy reporting. It also means "Fake News" is still alive and well in the Tampa Bay area, as well as across the United States. This is why we created "Tampa Bay Conservatives" (TBC) web site to report REAL news. The site can be found at: TBCtampa.com

So, how is Florida shaping up for the 2020 election? If the Republicans and Independents continue making gains in registration, President Trump should have no problem in being re-elected. And as Florida goes, so goes the country.

Keep the Faith!

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Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.