Could Prigozhin Oust Putin?

Reading a recent story in the Washington Post, I was struck by the opinions it reported about Putin’s shrinking circle of trusted advisers and his apparent lack of a strategy for the Ukraine war after 300 days of failure. This is an extract of what the Post reported:

“There is huge frustration among the people around him,” said one Russian billionaire who maintains contacts with top-ranking officials. “He clearly doesn’t know what to do.”

And Putin is losing friends.

Putin spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping over video conference on Friday morning in Moscow in an effort to showcase the two countries’ ties. Although Xi said he was ready to improve strategic cooperation, he acknowledged the “complicated and quite controversial international situation.” In September, he’d made clear his “concerns” over the war.

India’s Narendra Modi this month wrote an article for Russia’s influential Kommersant daily calling for an end to “the epoch of war.” “We read all this and understand, and I think he [Putin] reads and understands too,” the state official said. — Washington Post

Undoubtedly there are a few people in Russia who wake up in the morning and, as they look at themselves in the mirror and shave, wonder how they could themselves replace Putin.

Who could those shavers be?

The list is very limited. No women for sure although some do shave.

To be successful in a coup, the person would have to be able to count on being able to control the key levers of power: the military and the FSB at the very least. Putin’s hold on the military has always been tenuous, but his grip on the FSB is octopus-like (although he does have detractors in the FSB).

Because Putin has so emasculated the government of Russia, there are very few obvious candidates to succeed him without his sanction.

I’ve cut loose here with my speculation on the subject after some reflection.

The USSR way

In the days of the USSR, the Supreme Soviet could keep a dead leader alive for days while they squabbled behind closed doors to ‘choose the new pope’.

Upon suffering a stroke in 1975, [Leonid] Brezhnev’s ability to lead the Soviet Union was significantly compromised. As his ability to define Soviet foreign policy weakened, the General Secretary increasingly deferred to the opinions of a hardline brain trust comprising KGB Chairman Yuri Andropov, longtime Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, and Defense Minister Andrei Grechko.

The Ministry of Health kept doctors by Brezhnev’s side at all times, and Brezhnev was brought back from near-death on several occasions. At this time, most senior officers of the CPSU wanted to keep Brezhnev alive.

- Wikipedia

We don’t know how Putin’s death will come about, but it’s unlikely that many would want to keep him alive were he to become incapacitated.

Military candidates?

The obvious ones are:

• Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu are devalued following the debacle in Ukraine and are clinging tentatively to their posts.
• Sergei Surovikin (‘General Armageddon’) is a Russian Armed Forces army general and is now running the war in Ukraine. He is a notedly fearsome and ruthless operator but arguably too detached from the political action in Moscow to kick out Putin, although distance could work in his favour. Many might see him as a bit too extreme — and many might not.

They may carry the military weight, but could either execute a coup?

Yes.

But would it succeed?

Political candidates?

Putin has eliminated any serious political contenders who could move against him. Those that remain are weakened.

• Dmitry Medvedev, a protege of Putin’s has sat in the president’s chair and is perhaps the most obvious. Then Putin changed the law and Medvedev was demoted. He sings Putin’s tunes but would be unlikely to garner enough broad support effectively to usurp Putin. He is a busted flush.
• Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister — a career diplomat and able politician. A doubtful candidate although well known on the world stage.

It’s unlikely in my view that a political outsider from the provinces would succeed. The route takes time — after all, Putin took seven or eight years to climb the ladder after leaving the KGB.

But consider Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. He is both a soldier (he commands his own army of 20,000 with Putin’s agreement) and a politician, close to Putin but even more right wing. He’s outspoken and confrontational, perhaps the sort of personality that the Russian people would take to at first glance. The Chechen leader was among the few high-profile voices in Russia who addressed the reality of the Russian army’s retreat and the heavy losses suffered early in the Ukraine war and sharply criticised the military leadership.

Business candidates?

There are many oligarchs who could take the chair, but any that are seen as a threat in the slightest way are quickly eliminated by Putin, wherever they are in the world.

But there is one obvious candidate, one who Putin cannot yet dispense with.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin’s favourite billionaire chef and ‘owner’ of the Wagner Group of mercenaries could certainly be a candidate.

He has plenty of time to think, dream and plan as he shaves his head as well as his chin. He has a big head.

How could a coup succeed?

I’m not an expert in these matters but here goes with the wild speculation…

Kill him after a show trial or ease him out?

That is the question. Putin is becoming notoriously paranoid about his personal safety. Does Prigozhin cook for him?

A committee

However, it could well be a ‘committee coup’ as was the way in the USSR. Ease him out to pasture as they did with Kruschev.

Unfortunately the Russian parliament today— the State Duma — is a joke, packed with Putin puppets. No one there could keep a secret for a minute.

The State Security Council of Russia is a constitutional consultative body that supports the president’s decision-making on national security affairs and matters of strategic interest. With thirteen permanent members (including Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov — Foreign Minister — and Defence Minister Shoigu) it’s an unlikely crucible for a coup.

But most probably it would not be a formal committee as in the Security Council itself. It’s too obvious. Maybe a subset would work.

It would be an informal committee drawing on key personnel with their hands on the levers. Organisation and security would be a major problem leading up to the event.

It could be that a puppet president would be installed by the committee, maybe Lavrov or Sergei Nayshkin, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (he holds many useful dirty files).

Short and sharp?

The alternative could be a short, sharp military coup to put a strongman in place. It’s very likely in my view that such a candidate would be very hawkish and would be likely to quickly escalate the war in Ukraine.

There are obvious candidates from the military and business sectors as I suggested.

But which?

I think that Ramzan Kadyrov is a non-runner. He has many of the required attributes but he is from Chechnya. That’s not really mainstream Russia and White Russians don’t take to them too well - Russia and Chechnya fought a war.

Anyway he doesn’t shave.

So, what about Prigozhin?

Yevgeny Prigozhin

Formative years

Born in St Petersburg (as was Putin), he was educated at an athletics boarding school.

On 29 November 1979, Prigozhin was given a suspended sentence for stealing (in Leningrad). In 1981 he was sentenced to twelve years imprisonment under articles of robbery, fraud, and involving teenagers in prostitution. In a turning point in his life, Prigozhin ultimately spent nine years in prison before he was released. — https://profilesinfo.com/yevgeny-prigozhin-wiki-networth-age/

I could find no record of him having served in the military.

Business interests

Prigozhin controls a large network of organisations and his family has extensive business interests. Known as ‘Putin’s chef’ he has served food to Putin, French president Jacques Chirac and US President George W. Bush.

The Wagner Group

Prigozhin runs the Wagner Group also known as PMC Wagner, a Russian paramilitary organization. It does not exist as a single corporate entity under that name — rather, it is a larger network of companies and groups that operate together.

It is variously described as a private military company (PMC), a network of mercenaries, or a de facto private army of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The group operates beyond the law because private military contractors are officially forbidden in Russia. Although the Wagner Group itself is not ideologically driven, various sections of Wagner have been linked to neo-Nazis and far-right extremists in Russia.

In December 2021, the EU imposed sanctions against the Wagner Group and eight individuals and three entities connected with it, for committing “serious human rights abuses, including torture and extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings, or in destabilising activities in some of the countries they operate in, including Libya, Syria, Ukraine (Donbas) and the Central African Republic.” (Wikipedia)

Because of its amorphous natre, it’s hard to get a haundle on the Group's size and income as it seeks to avoid sanctions and to hide its cash, As most of its ‘people’ are independent mercenaries any quoted headcount would likely be inaccurate. It’s been adding conscripts and Russian prisoners to its ranks for several months. They make handy cannon fodder.

Besides the Wagner Group, Prigozhin has a large worldwide empire, although he is on the sanctions list and will be cut off from much of any funds flow, although there is plenty of money sloshing around in Russia even now.

Could Prigozhin do it?

He’s obviously smart and well-resourced, but could he run a vast bureaucracy? Yes, just pick capable people as ministers and frighten them.

But is he brave enough to take that step?

Possibly. But perhaps he has too many detractors. Prigozhin is taking power away from the traditional Russian military establishment and nurturing Putin’s dependence on his resources and advice. This trend may inflict deep damage to the future utility of the Russian Armed Forces. who are jealous of his operations in their world.

According to an investigation by Bellingcat, The Insider, and Der Spiegel, Prigozhin’s operations “are tightly integrated with Russia’s Defence Ministry and its intelligence arm, the GRU”. That is substantial leverage.

But would he get buy from the politicians? Possibly, from those on the far right.

And he’s had a few setbacks as his army of mostly conscripts and criminals is finding it tough at the front:

Prigozhin admitted that the “Wagnerites” failed to capture Bakhmut, he is preparing to blame the failure on the Russian Ministry of Defense, — the Institute for the Study of War (United24Media Jan 4, 2023)

But just this week he is claiming that his Wagnerites have taken Soledar, although that is far from being confirmed.

Prigozhin is noted for extreme views which could harness the support of hawks. This is what foreignpolicy.com had to say (recommended, December 2022):

…his real target sits in Moscow: Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin has long been Putin’s pit bull, running covert operations from Africa to the Middle East. Now he sees an opening for greater political power. With Putin’s invasion of Ukraine failing all along the 800-mile front, the Russian leader is searching for culprits, and a battle among different factions is underway.

Should Prigozhin come out on top and emerge as the next minister of defense — or even with an expanded role in Russia’s war — it would presage an even more menacing turn in Moscow. That’s because Prigozhin leads a new generation of hard-liners that surpasses even Putin’s old guard in their aggression. Each will have a say in a post-Putin struggle for power or if the Russian Federation fractures.

In the murky world of Russian military politics, Prigozhin could well get ‘set up’ be the military and a counter-coup could ensue.

Kadyrov in the Kremlin? No way.

Better be careful with that razor, Prigozhin. Close advisors of Russian tyrants have a nasty habit of dying unnatural deaths.

Best stick to cooking for Putin — and don’t forget the hemlock.

Late entry to the race

Thanks to a reader for picking out Viktor Zolotov as late entry.

Viktor Vasilyevich Zolotov) is the current Director of the National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) and a member of the Security Council of Russia.

Zolotov is a former bodyguard to former President Boris Yeltsin, former St. Petersburg Mayor Anatoly Sobchak, and current Russian leader Vladimir Putin. While working for Sobchak, Zolotov became acquainted with Putin, as well as figures in the St. Petersburg criminal underworld. A member of Putin’s siloviki inner circle, Zolotov’s rise to power and wealth happened after he became a close Putin confidante. (Wikipedia)

The 400,000-strong National Guard of Russia is presently the de facto praetorian guard of Vladimir Putin, but as Putin loses credibility it is plausible to imagine Zolotov leveraging his total control over this organization to move swiftly and decapitate potential rivals. Wagner Group is a fraction of the size and its personnel are almost entirely outside of Moscow, whereas Zolotov’s forces are literally everywhere that matters. (AllanMLees).

Zolotov seems to have got his act together, with a TV series episode about the Russian National Guard which he 'self-directed'.

How weird is that?

And the action continues

There are problems with one of the entries:

KYIV/NEAR BAKHMUT, Ukraine, Jan 12 (Reuters) — Moscow named a new commander for its invasion of Ukraine…

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday appointed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov as overall commander for what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, now in its 11th month.

The change effectively demoted General Sergei Surovikin, who was appointed only in October to lead the invasion and oversaw heavy attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

There is speculation that Surovikin was becoming too powerful:

To me it’s a clear sign that the jockeying for position after Putin is already well under way.

***

This story was first published in Medium on 7 January 2023 [since edited and updated in a fast moving race]