An Open Examination of Russia's Military Situation

What is the true state of Russia's military? Reports from both Russian and Western sources present a bleak picture. To learn the true tale, read today's new amazing narrative. ❕🧐🕶🕶🧐❕

What condition is Russia's military actually in? Both Russian and western sources aren't giving us a good picture. The number of casualties in Russia has been astounding. In times of intense conflict, casualty reports are typically kept very secret, and both Russia and Ukraine have kept their death tolls under wraps. The issue of morale affects both countries, but for Russia, it is especially important to keep both its military and its people in the dark about the true cost of its special military operation. The majority of estimates put the number of Russian casualties at around 100,000, with 25 of these being combat fatalities. The EU recently estimated that Ukraine had also suffered 100,000 casualties, and it is believed that the EU's estimate was based in part on intelligence gathering.

The EU quickly redacted its report after Ukraine protested. However, if this information is accurate, there is no way that Russian casualties are anything close to this level. Ukraine was on the defensive for the majority of the conflict. Simple battlefield math predicts that, in a battle between equal foes, the offensive side will suffer more losses than the defensive. So, if Ukraine has lost 100,000 people, Russia has probably lost 50 to 100 more due to the nature of the conflict. The number of non-combat deaths and injuries, however, further inflates the number of Russian casualties. Only some Ukrainian units were properly outfitted at the beginning of this war, and Ukrainian forces were not particularly well armed or equipped.

The average Ukrainian unit is now better equipped than its Russian counterpart, thanks in large part to a concerted westward push, and we're not just talking about weapons. Famously, Russian troops advancing on Kiev voiced their dissatisfaction over a lack of food and water. When Ukrainian forces defeated Russian forces or forced them to retreat, they frequently found insufficient and expired rations. Russian invaders were observed robbing stores of food and drinking water. Given the abundance of websites offering genuine Russian military rations for sale online, that should raise some alarm bells for an outside observer. As per usual, systemic corruption is to blame, but poor Russian logistics have also claimed lives other than those related to food and water.

Winter gear is needed in great quantities on both sides as winter sets in. The west was able to provide Ukraine with all the winter gear its troops would require because it had foreseen this need. In early October, when Russia went to send winter equipment to its own troops, it learned that up to 1 million items were missing, including five million winter uniforms. According to a quote from State Duma delegate Andrei Gurulev, "I'm still not sure where the 1. At the points of personnel reception, 5 million sets of uniforms were kept in storage. Today, the form is problematic, followed by another issue. Gurulev, however, should not have been as surprised as he appeared to be given that corruption in the Russian army is rampant and stealing supplies is essentially a tradition.

It was all there, so where did it go? No one anywhere can explain this in any way. Russian soldiers would strip the priceless wiring from their own vehicles during the Chechnya wars and resell it in the neighborhood markets. Even though the majority of that equipment would be used against their fellow soldiers, they would steal large quantities of ammunition, grenades, and even RPGs to sell at local markets. Any missing equipment would simply be written off as a result of administrative errors or destroyed in battle, with armory staff fully complicit in the heist or intimidated into it. There are some reservations about the Russian military's lack of winter-ready gear and nutrition. Russian soldiers appear to be suffering from hypothermia in one video that has gone viral, which was shot by a Ukrainian drone.

The Russian soldiers are shown in the video huddling together while they sleep in order to stay warm. A Ukrainian drone then drops a grenade on them. But when the grenade goes off, only one of the soldiers makes an effort to crawl out of the hole, with the others hardly exhibiting any signs of life. Numerous commentators have called attention to the subpar winter clothing the soldiers are sporting in the video and noted that it would take extreme circumstances, such as hypothermia, for someone to fail to react when a grenade is literally exploding next to them. Lack of protective gear will harm Russian soldiers more as the winter worsens, especially as Vladimir Putin and his generals prepare a major offensive to try to push Ukraine back, though not much better, Russian equipment isn't doing much better.

It was quickly apparent that corruption and incompetence in the Russian military had severely harmed its stockpiles of equipment. Because of a fatal flaw in their tires, vehicles were infamously left on the side of the road. Tire rot, which is brought on by the rubber weakening when exposed to the sun, was clearly visible in many of the captured vehicles. Vehicles are regularly rotated by mechanics to prevent this, so that one side isn't always exposed to the sun. However, cheap Chinese-made tires also had an adverse effect on Russian vehicles, with one particularly well-known incident involving the abandonment of a high-priced air defense vehicle because its tires had failed. It turned out that many Russian vehicles were using cheap Chinese tires that were not intended for the vehicles they were mounted on.

In addition, unlike western tire manufacturers, Russian tire manufacturers did not x-ray and analyze their tires for structural flaws that might impair their performance. It is clear that Major Corruptavich simply pocketed the price difference between buying the intended, high-quality tires and the cheaper ones. This isn't a case of the Chinese making just bad tires; they produce perfectly good tires for their own military vehicles. The once-dreaded tank forces of Russia have performed horribly in Ukraine. Apocalyptic tank loss rates for any modern force are estimated to be around 1500 for Russia. According to current estimates, if sanctions were lifted tomorrow, Russia would need up to ten years to completely rebuild its armored forces, whereas it would take much less time to deploy less capable but lighter forces.

When discussing Russian reconstruction, it's important to keep in mind that the country continues to be the second-largest exporter of arms in the world and has excellent industrial potential. But even that depends on a variety of variables, not the least of which is the fact that the Russian economy has been severely impacted by sanctions and will continue to be so in the future. The GDP of Russia is predicted to contract by 3 this year alone, and the country's inflation rate could increase to 14 or higher again in 2013. Even more concerning, the EU has restricted most Russian energy exports and set a price cap on Russian oil at $60 per barrel. While the rest of the world is not bound by this cap, it is expected that many of its allies in the west will abide by it.

What's more, anyone who imports Russian oil using western infrastructure or on vessels covered by western insurance companies is obligated by law to adhere to this price cap. The decision will have a significant negative impact on Russia's finances, as the country's economy is disproportionately dependent on the energy industry, with up to 60% of government income coming from the sale of energy exports. The reconstitution of forces is also made more challenging and time-consuming by sanctions on the technological goods required for modern weapons. However, the issue with Russian armor goes beyond the challenges associated with its replacement.

Russian tanks have shown serious flaws when faced with modern threats. The majority of anti-tank missiles used today attack from the top, which causes them to rise into the air upon launch and land directly on top of the tank's weaker turret roof armor. Russian tanks have a serious issue with this because their autoloaders use a carousel mechanism to store the ammunition that surrounds the turret. This means that if a direct hit penetrates the armor, all of the ammunition will explode, instantly destroying the crew and sending the turret flying.

When facing enemy tanks, this might not be a major issue, but the widespread use of modern ATGMs on today's battlefield has turned Russian tanks into deathtraps for their crews. Ironically, because of the ATGM threats, a Russian tank may be safer today when battling a peer tank than light infantry. A significant issue with Russia's military that has not yet been resolved is highlighted by its problems with tanks.

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