Asteroid 2024 YR4

Fire tears the sky

Stone breath from the silent void

Earth holds its last breath

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Author’s Notes:

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on 27 December, 2024 by the ATLAS-CHL survey in Chile. Its size is approximately 40 to 90 metres in diametre. Early calculations suggested a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth on 22 December, 2032, marking it as one of the highest-risk asteroids ever identified. However, subseqent observations have effectively ruled out the possibility of a 2032 impact, deducing the probability to near zero.

Both NASA and ESA have removed Asteroid 2024 YR4 from the Earth-impact risk lists, and it’s currently rated Level 0 on the Torino Scale. The focus has now shifted to the Moon. The chance of a lunar impact on 22 December, 2032 has increased to 4.3%, up from 3.8%, based on James Webb and ground observatories.

If the asteroid hits the Moon, it wouldn’t significantly affect its orbit, but would be a rare and spectacular event visible from Earth. Of course, there could could be future changes since surrently the observations are hold due to the asteroid now being behind the Sun and won’t be visible from Earth until 2028. However, James Webb may re-observe it, helping refine its trajectory.

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This Senryu is for Mikeydred unofficial June challenge.