Could AI predict the future?

Imagine this: You and your partner Alex have enjoyed a strong, loving relationship for years, and you're now contemplating engagement. While Alex is enthusiastic about the idea, you can't help but worry about the statistics. You know that many marriages end in divorce, and over 10% of first marriages fail within the first five years. The thought of potentially being part of that statistic makes you hesitant to tie the knot.

Now, imagine you live in a near future where a groundbreaking company has released an AI-based model that can predict the likelihood of a couple divorcing within five years of marriage with 95% accuracy. This AI analyzes data from social media activity, online search histories, spending habits, and histories of marriage and divorce to make its predictions. However, the model does not explain the reasons behind its results—it simply states whether a couple will likely divorce or not.

This scenario raises a crucial question: Should you decide whether to get married based on the AI's prediction?

The Predictive Power of AI

AI has the capability to process and analyze vast amounts of data, identifying patterns and correlations that humans might miss. In this context, a 95% accuracy rate suggests a high level of reliability. However, the model's lack of transparency—its inability to explain why it predicts a divorce—presents significant challenges.

Ethical and Practical Considerations

1. Transparency and Explainability:

- The AI’s prediction lacks explanation, making it difficult to understand the underlying factors. This lack of transparency can undermine your ability to address potential issues proactively.

- Decisions based on unexplained predictions can feel arbitrary and unsettling, potentially eroding your sense of autonomy and trust in the decision-making process.

2. Impact on Relationship Dynamics:

- Awareness of a negative prediction could introduce doubt and anxiety into your relationship, potentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy where the stress of the prediction itself contributes to relationship issues.

- Ignoring the prediction and proceeding with the marriage might lead to constant second-guessing, affecting your peace of mind.

3. Human Agency and Accountability:

- Deferring to an AI prediction shifts agency from you to the machine, making it challenging to justify your decision, especially if it contradicts your current feelings and experiences.

- Accountability is crucial in relationships. Making significant decisions based on an opaque AI model complicates your ability to provide a reasonable explanation to Alex, potentially undermining trust.

4. Potential for False Predictions:

- Even with a 95% accuracy rate, there is a 5% chance of a false prediction. This means one in twenty couples might be inaccurately advised, potentially leading to unnecessary heartbreak or missed opportunities.

Balancing AI Insights with Human Judgment

Given these considerations, let's explore your options and their implications:

1. Get Married Anyway:

- Choosing to marry despite the prediction respects your personal agency and belief in the strength of your relationship. You could view the prediction as one of many factors but ultimately trust in your mutual commitment and ability to navigate challenges together.

2. Break Up:

- Ending a happy relationship based on an unexplained AI prediction might lead to regret and feelings of unfairness. This decision prioritizes statistical insight over your personal experiences and emotions.

3. Stay Together but Unmarried:

- Opting to stay together without marrying might be a middle ground. It acknowledges the AI's prediction without letting it dictate your relationship’s trajectory entirely. However, this decision assumes marriage is the primary risk factor, which may not be accurate.

Moving Forward

1. Discuss with Alex:

- Transparency is vital. Share your concerns and the AI's prediction with Alex. A joint decision that considers both the AI's insights and your mutual feelings will be more balanced and respectful of your partnership.

2. Seek Professional Advice:

- Consider couples counseling to explore any underlying issues that the AI might have identified. Professional guidance can provide valuable insights and strategies for maintaining a healthy relationship.

Conclusion

While AI can offer valuable insights, it is essential to balance these predictions with human judgment, emotions, and mutual commitment. The decision to marry should be based not only on statistical probabilities but also on open communication, shared values, and the genuine bond you and Alex share. Ultimately, whether or not to use the AI's prediction to guide your decision is a personal choice that should reflect both your trust in technology and your faith in your relationship.