Is Civilization on the Brink of Collapse?

During the zenith of the Roman Empire, it accommodated approximately 30% of the world's population and was considered a pinnacle of human progress. Its citizens enjoyed the luxuries of central heating, concrete, double glazing, advanced banking, international trade, and opportunities for upward social mobility. Rome held the distinction of being the first city in history with a million inhabitants and served as a hub for technological, legal, and economic advancements. It appeared as an unassailable empire, characterized by stability, wealth, and power.

However, the story took a different turn. Gradually, and then suddenly, the mightiest civilization on Earth experienced a dramatic collapse. When we talk about civilization, we refer to complex societies where labor becomes specialized, social classes emerge, and institutions rule. Civilizations are united by a dominant common language and culture, taming plants and animals to support large cities and often constructing grand monuments. Civilization enables us to operate efficiently on a large scale, accumulate vast knowledge, and harness human ingenuity along with the world's natural resources. Without civilization, many people who exist today would likely never have been born. It's a bit unsettling to acknowledge that collapse is more of a norm than an exception, with nearly all civilizations meeting their end, typically around the 340-year mark.

Collapse isn't a pleasant experience for individuals. Shared cultural identities shatter as institutions lose their organizing power. Knowledge is lost, living standards decline, violence surges, and population often dwindles. The civilization either vanishes entirely, gets absorbed by more formidable neighbors, or something new emerges, occasionally with less advanced technology than before.

Considering these historical trends, what about our contemporary society? Could we, just like how Europeans forgot ancient technologies like indoor plumbing and cement production, risk losing our industrial achievements, from accessible pizza to smartphones or laser eye surgery? Our modern cities sprawl across thousands of square kilometers, air travel is commonplace, and communication is instantaneous. Industrial agriculture, featuring engineered high-yield crops, efficient machinery, and potent fertilizers, sustains billions. Modern medicine has extended our lifespans, and industrial technology offers unprecedented comfort and abundance, despite the challenges it poses to the environment. Several civilizations coexist in the modern world, forming a unified global civilization.

However, our contemporary globalized civilization is potentially more vulnerable than past empires due to deep interconnections. A collapse of the industrialized world would imply the majority of people alive today perishing, as industrial agriculture's failure would make it impossible to feed them. A more significant risk is that a collapse might be so devastating that we couldn't re-industrialize, jeopardizing our aspiration of becoming a multiplanetary species. This would constitute an existential catastrophe, affecting not only the present generation but all potential future generations.

So, how likely is this grim scenario? The good news is that while civilization collapses have occurred regularly, they have never completely derailed global civilization. Rome fell, but other civilizations, like the Aksumite Empire, Teotihuacans, and the Byzantine Empire, persevered. Sudden population crashes have also been limited, with no event causing a worldwide population decline of more than 10%. Even the Black Death, which killed a significant portion of the global population, demonstrated humanity's resilience. While it led to short-term disruptions, it did not hinder long-term economic and technological development. Population size rebounded within two centuries, and the Industrial Revolution followed. History is full of stories of recovery from dire tragedies.

The recovery is likely, even in the worst-case scenario. Agriculture, with one billion workers today, ensures that many survivors could produce food even if the global population dropped significantly. Modern high-yield crops would facilitate recovery. Rebuilding industrial capacity, like power grids and automated manufacturing, would follow. However, we must acknowledge that modern industries rely on economies of scale and intricate supply chains, making it challenging to pick up where we left off, even if infrastructure remains intact.

Thinking about larger timeframes, the Industrial Revolution occurred 12,000 years after the agricultural revolution, indicating that re-industrialization shouldn't be overly challenging on evolutionary timescales. However, the hitch is that the Industrial Revolution was heavily dependent on easily accessible coal, which we still rely on today. Using it excessively not only exacerbates climate change but also hinders our ability to recover from crises. Thus, discontinuing the use of readily accessible coal is crucial to serve as a safeguard in case of disaster.

Moreover, most of the information required to rebuild civilization would likely endure, despite the loss of institutional knowledge. While some knowledge may be lost, much of the technological, scientific, and cultural information stored in the world's 2.6 million libraries would survive the catastrophe. Post-collapse survivors would be aware of what was once possible and could reverse engineer tools and machines they find.

In conclusion, despite the foreboding specter of catastrophic threats, whether natural or human-made, there is room for optimism. Humanity has shown remarkable resilience, even in the face of a global civilizational collapse. Recovery seems feasible, even if accompanied by substantial loss and hardship, allowing the preservation of cultural and technological achievements. However, the stakes remain worryingly high. Nuclear war and deadly pandemics threaten the remarkable global civilization we've established. Humanity's current situation could be likened to a reckless teenager speeding around blind corners without a seatbelt. The good news is that there is still time to prepare for and mitigate these risks. We simply need to take action.