They might be on our way

The universe is an awe-inspiring expanse, filled with billions of galaxies, trillions of stars, and countless planets. Considering the potential for even a fraction of these planets to support life, one would expect the universe to be teeming with civilizations. However, we see no evidence of extraterrestrial life, only vast emptiness. This raises the question: Where is everyone else?

The answer to this intriguing enigma could be both exciting and unsettling. It is possible that we are among the earliest forms of life in the universe, born before the emergence of most other civilizations. But this situation may soon change. Aliens could appear and rapidly surround us, initiating an irreversible competition for dominance in the cosmos.

While the ideas presented in this video are based on scientific papers, they involve significant extrapolation from limited data. Therefore, it is important to approach them with skepticism. Nonetheless, let's explore three fundamental questions that shed light on the galactic competition:

How quickly can bacteria develop the ability to build spaceships and become a spacefaring civilization? Life, as we know it, undergoes a series of complex steps, starting from non-living matter evolving into the building blocks of life. From there, cells organize into self-contained units and eventually collaborate to form multicellular organisms. This process continues until complex creatures with advanced cognitive abilities, tools, and language emerge. A civilization must then arise from cultures that value progress and technological advancement. Finally, they must venture beyond their home planet. On Earth, life appeared soon after the formation of oceans, but it took billions of years to transition from single-celled organisms to multicellular life. The development of culture, civilization, and space travel occurred rapidly in comparison. However, it remains uncertain whether this speed is typical or exceptional. Additionally, passing one step does not guarantee the completion of subsequent steps. Multicellularity, for instance, evolved independently over 25 times on Earth, but only one species has developed the capability to build spaceships. The number of steps life needs to pass and the time it takes to give rise to a technological civilization are unknown. It is probable that life has been attempting these steps on trillions of planets for billions of years. The absence of other technological civilizations in our observations suggests that we may be a rare exception, among the first or even the first technological civilization in the Milky Way.

Why does humanity exist now? The universe is approximately 13.8 billion years old, but it is unlikely that many other technological civilizations had the opportunity to arise before us. In the early universe, the conditions were hostile for life to emerge and thrive. Early stars frequently exploded, galaxies collided, and supermassive black holes emitted vast amounts of radiation, capable of sterilizing entire galaxies repeatedly. Our Sun formed toward the end of this chaotic cosmic era. Never before has the universe been as conducive to life as it is now. Hence, humanity has appeared at an exceptionally favorable time, possibly the earliest point at which life could flourish.

What about the future? Our Sun is brighter than 90% of stars in our galaxy and will continue to grow brighter. In approximately one billion years, it will heat up Earth's oceans and eventually engulf our planet entirely. In the galactic context, our Sun's lifespan is short-lived. Most stars are red dwarfs, which can sustain habitable planets for tens of trillions of years. Life on such planets has an incredibly long timeframe to emerge and overcome the necessary challenges. Even without knowing the rarity or commonness of life, this increases the likelihood of technological civilizations emerging in the future rather than the past. If civilizations arise randomly in the Milky Way over a trillion-year period, only a few, if any, would have emerged prior to our existence. Within the current billion-year window, a few more civilizations might arise before all potential spacefaring civilizations come into being. This distribution, resembling a tsunami, results from the complexity of the necessary steps for technological development and the existence of a deadline for spacefaring civilizations. Any civilization that arises afterward would struggle to find room to survive. Therefore, all potential civilizations must emerge and thrive before this deadline, which humanity has seemingly met.

But why haven't we encountered aliens on Earth? Humans possess curiosity, an expansionist drive, and a hunger for energy. We have spread across the globe, shaping it according to our needs. Our technology has continually advanced, initially slowly, but then at an astonishing pace. If these characteristics persist, and our descendants seek prosperity, they will inevitably expand into space. We could harness the energy of a Dyson swarm and transform other planets into habitable homes. We could even travel between stars, reaching planets in distant solar systems. An expanding technological civilization would be challenging to overlook. Our telescopes would detect their energy usage and identify artificial interference with stars and planets. Furthermore, such activities are highly disruptive to the environment. Just as human activity has left no chance for a civilization of squirrels to emerge, the presence of loud civilizations in the past, terraforming planets or harvesting stellar energy, may have prevented our own existence. If aliens had colonized Earth while we were still evolving from primordial sludge, humans may never have come into being. Therefore, loud civilizations inadvertently create a deadline for the emergence of new civilizations.

Quiet civilizations, on the other hand, would be limited to their own star systems and have little noticeable impact on the cosmic environment. Humanity currently falls into this category. We would not be detectable from the other side of the Milky Way. If other civilizations remain quiet indefinitely due to their culture or limitations, they pose no concern for us. However, we have only one example to draw from—humanity. Currently, we are on a trajectory toward becoming a loud civilization. If we are not exceptional and other civilizations with motivation and resources eventually expand beyond their home planets, they will seek to claim their portion of the galaxy. Interactions with other civilizations may not necessarily lead to conflict, but they would certainly result in the establishment of new boundaries that could endure indefinitely. In the worst-case scenario, a civilization could be completely surrounded by more advanced empires, forever consigned to the periphery of the galaxy, with no control over their destiny.

Therefore, if we desire a seat at the galactic table, we must act now. If we are truly early, we have an incredible opportunity to shape and colonize thousands or even millions of planets according to our vision and aspirations. Someday, when we encounter other civilizations, we can meet them as equals. Wouldn't that be a remarkable outcome?