Moore's Law Is Dying

Transistors on integrated circuits have been doubling every year since the 1970s in a historical trend known as Moore’s law. It's been amazing so far, and in some ways, it has allowed civilization to progress at a pace not previously imaginable. However, there are several reasons why it won't last. “Well, first of all, in about ten years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore’s law. In fact already we see a slowing down of Moore’s law. Computer power simply cannot maintain its rapid exponential rise using standard silicon technology. Intel Corporation has admitted this” (Kaku). We’re reaching the limits of what electrons can do, and that is not going to change.

The first is the most simple, physics. Transistors can only get so small. At some point, they will be small enough to be affected by quantum tunneling. Basically what this means is that electrons will start behaving like waves as described by Einstein rather than particles. On large transistors, this doesn’t happen, but on the atomic and subatomic level, this will cause problems with transistors. “As chipmakers have squeezed ever more transistors onto a chip, transistors have gotten smaller, and the distances between different transistor regions have decreased. So today, electronic barriers that were once thick enough to block current are now so thin that electrons can barrel right through them” (Seabaugh). The result of this quantum tunneling keeps the device from functioning properly. It's like a kitchen knife. The width of the blade can keep shrinking and shrinking, although it cuts better, it won’t keep that shape forever as things fold up and break more easily if they’re too thin.

The second is more complex. As transistors get smaller, they produce more heat per area, and it becomes more difficult to manage that heat as the chips have limited space for cooling. Without any limits, the chip can get hot enough to burn itself. The current cooling methods used by chipmakers aren’t going to be able to keep up with the heat generation of smaller transistors. There’s a limit to how small and fast transistors can become using standard semiconductor technology.

We need a new way to keep up with Moore’s law. That new way may be better software. “If transistors can’t get smaller, then coders have to get smarter” (Conner-Simons). This means that coders have to find ways to program computers that require fewer transistors making software more efficient rather than increasing the number of transistors. Throwing more hardware at the problem will no longer be a solution. It will be smarter software. While it is true that increasing computer power will be quite useful, this goal could be accomplished through other means other than simply shrinking transistors. If we can improve the efficiency of software, then making our chips smaller won’t be necessary. Better software may be able to solve both the problems of transistor heat and size.

Looking back, Moore's law is an incredible phenomenon that has predicted immense computing power to the palm of our hands. Computers have been the driving force of technological innovation and have helped spark a technological revolution. However, as we move forward into the future, computing will only become more important. Self-driving cars rely on computing to make quick and logical decisions. Smart homes rely on computing to monitor the environment and power appliances. Even medicine is relying on computing to analyze patient data and find cures to previously incurable diseases. But it is limited, and new technology will be needed to continue the computing revolution. Without it, who knows how far we would be? The end of Moore's law means that we are going to have to re-invent computing technology once again. This is a problem, but it's also an opportunity. There is going to be a lot of money and power tied up in this transition, and the company that manages this transition best is going to see its stock value rise because they are going to be supplying the computing power of the century.

Sources:

Connor-Simons, Adam. “If Transistors Can't Get Smaller, Then Coders Have to Get Smarter.” MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 5 June 2020, news.mit.edu/2020/mit-csail-computing-technology-after-moores-law-0605.

The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. “Moore's Law.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 26 Dec. 2019, www.britannica.com/technology/Moores-law.

Kaku, Michio. “Tweaking Moore's Law: Computers of the Post-Silicon Era.” Big Think, Big Think, 13 Apr. 2012, bigthink.com/videos/tweaking-moores-law-computers-of-the-post-silicon-era-2-2.

Moore, Bo. “Will Overheating My CPU Cause Any Real Damage?” Pcgamer, PC Gamer, 28 Sept. 2016, www.pcgamer.com/cpu-temperature-overheat/.

Talukdar, Banani, et al. “REVIEW PAPER ON NEW TECHNOLOGY BASED NANOSCALE TRANSISTOR.” Advances in Materials Science and Engineering: An International Journal (MSEJ), Mar. 2016, www.academia.edu/44048177/REVIEW_PAPER_ON_NEW_TECHNOLOGY_BASED_NANOSCALE_TRANSISTOR?email_work_card=view-paper.

Seabaugh, Alan. “The Tunneling Transistor.” IEEE Spectrum: Technology, Engineering, and Science News, 30 Sept. 2013, spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/devices/the-tunneling-transistor.