BBC senior political analyst Peter Barnes reports that recent polls continue to follow the trends observed throughout the election campaign. Labour maintains a strong lead of approximately 20 points over the Conservatives, despite both parties experiencing a slight decline in their average scores. Currently, Labour holds 41% and the Conservatives 21% in the BBC poll tracker.
Reform UK has seen a gradual increase, now reaching 16%, the highest since they were known as the Brexit Party in 2019. The Liberal Democrats have also seen a modest rise in their average share since the campaign's start, while support for the Greens, SNP, and Plaid Cymru has remained consistent.
Party Support Gaps
Polls are based on samples of over 1,000 people, weighted to represent the country accurately. There is always a margin of error, indicating the real percentage could vary. The true support for each party likely falls within the ranges provided.
Latest UK General Election Voting Intention (as of 19 June 2024)
Labour: 41% (36-46%)
Conservatives: 21% (16-26%)
Reform UK: 16% (13-19%)
Lib Dems: 11% (8-14%)
Green: 6% (3-9%)
SNP: 3% (2-4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (<1-2%)
*Note: The SNP and Plaid Cymru campaign only in Scotland and Wales respectively, so the margin of error for their support across Great Britain is within +/- 1%.
Poll Tracker Details
Each dot on the chart represents a poll result for a party, summarized with an average line to show trends clearly.
Poll Sources
The poll tracker uses data from members of the British Polling Council, adhering to rules on transparency. However, membership does not guarantee quality. Included polls come from organizations like BMG, Deltapoll, Ipsos, YouGov, and others. Only headline percentages on voting intention are included, calculated by excluding those who answered "don't know" or "won't vote." Most polls cover Great Britain, with some covering the entire UK.
Funding for Polls
Polling companies often work for news organizations, TV programs, and campaign groups. Where stated, the client information is included in the data tables.
Margin of Error
For the Conservatives and Labour, the true support might be within five percentage points of the average. Historically, nine out of ten polls before election day have been within this range of the actual national vote shares from 2010 to 2019. The margin is smaller for other parties like the Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Reform UK, and even smaller for the SNP and Plaid Cymru.
Averaging Polls
A party's support estimate is a rolling average of polls from the past fortnight, using the most recent poll from each company for that day's averages.
Variations Between Polling Companies
Different polling methods and question wording can lead to variations in results. Pollsters also apply different "weights" to reflect the voting population's makeup and handle respondents who are uncertain about voting differently.
Voting Intention Questions
Polling companies typically ask a question like, "If a general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" Some companies categorize certain parties under "other," and Reform UK has been included as a distinct option in polls since autumn 2022. Support for Plaid Cymru is included under "other" in polls by Techne.
Key People Involved in the General Election 2024 Poll Tracker
Political Analysts and Commentators
Peter Barnes: BBC's senior political analyst, providing insights and commentary on polling trends.
Political Party Leaders
Keir Starmer: Leader of the Labour Party, aiming to maintain their lead in the polls.
Rishi Sunak: Leader of the Conservative Party, working to close the gap with Labour.
Richard Tice: Leader of Reform UK, which has seen a rise in support.
Ed Davey: Leader of the Liberal Democrats, focusing on increasing their share.
Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay: Co-leaders of the Green Party, maintaining steady support.
Humza Yousaf: Leader of the SNP, campaigning primarily in Scotland.
Adam Price: Leader of Plaid Cymru, focusing on Welsh constituencies.
Polling Organizations
BMG Research: Provides data on voter intentions.
Deltapoll: Conducts and analyzes election-related surveys.
Ipsos: A leading market research company, contributing to the poll tracker.
YouGov: Known for its extensive polling and data analysis.
Savanta: Supplies polling data included in the tracker.
Redfield and Wilton Strategies: Another key player in political polling.
British Polling Council
Members: Organizations like BMG, Deltapoll, Ipsos, YouGov, and others that adhere to standards of transparency and methodology in polling.
These individuals and organizations play crucial roles in shaping and interpreting the data that informs the General Election 2024 Poll Tracker, helping to provide a clearer picture of the political landscape as the election approaches.
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