China's Population Crisis

An interesting demographic trend with profound implications for China's population is occuring.

During most of the past six decades, birth rates in China remained high and the population grew. However, in 2022, China experienced more deaths than births, leading to a population decline for the first time in 60 years. Understanding the significance of this requires considering China's status as the world's manufacturing hub, largely due to its vast population. Manufacturing contributes nearly 30% of the country's economic output. Despite a loss of nearly a million people in 2022, China's population remains at its peak, with approximately 1.4 billion individuals. Yet, projections suggest it could decrease by almost half by the century's end. Over the years, China's growth and governmental policies have influenced its population dynamics. Presently, efforts are being made to stabilize population growth. However, these attempts may come too late.

During the 1950s, under Mao's leadership, China witnessed one of the most devastating famines in history, resulting in 30 million deaths. A sharp increase in mortality rates and a simultaneous decline in birth rates caused the population to shrink. Subsequently, a baby boom occurred, compounded by advancements in global healthcare that lowered infant mortality rates. This led to an average of six children per family, prompting the government to view the situation as concerning. Consequently, the "Later, Longer, Fewer" policy was introduced, advocating for delayed marriages, extended birth intervals, and reduced births. This policy gradually decreased China's birth rate, yet it wasn't deemed sufficient. In 1980, the government implemented the stringent one-child policy, which restricted most families to a single child. This policy was enforced rigorously, involving sterilization campaigns, IUD insertions, and induced abortions. Although effective in controlling population growth, these measures proved excessively harsh.

For a population to maintain stability in the long run, each couple must have an average of 2.1 children, known as the replacement rate. However, China has maintained a fertility rate significantly below this threshold for over three decades. In 2016, the one-child policy was repealed, and a three-child policy was briefly implemented before allowing families to have as many children as desired in 2021. Despite these changes, the unique family structure resulting from the one-child policy remains a challenge. With a 4-2-1 family model, where couples have four parents and one child, single children face increasing pressure to care for aging relatives. Economic factors also play a role, with rising living costs discouraging families from having multiple children. Financial strains and work pressures lead more than 50% of young people to opt for a single child.

The population crisis extends beyond birth rates to the age distribution, with a disproportionately large elderly population compared to young people. This aging population, coupled with sustained low fertility rates, poses challenges for China's future. The country's economy, once driven by a booming population, now faces constraints due to demographic shifts. While China's rapid economic growth elevated it to global prominence, its per capita GDP remains lower than high-income countries. Rural areas, in particular, have not reaped the benefits of economic progress, and China lacks sufficient social infrastructure to support its aging population. With a slowing economy, China's role as a manufacturing giant faces reevaluation, affecting its global influence and internal priorities.

China's experience is not unique, with several Asian and European nations also grappling with population declines. However, the rapidity of China's demographic changes sets it apart. Just 40 years ago, China leveraged its burgeoning population to become an economic powerhouse while simultaneously attempting to curb population growth. Now that population growth has ceased, China must reconsider its future trajectory, both domestically and on the global stage.