What does Carl Sagan Have to Say About the State of AI

Dr. Sagan had very little to say about AI. His comments were more generally about science.

Dr. Sagan did not comment directly about AI, but some of his quotes are very relevant to the current situation of AI.

I was looking on the Internet at Dr. Sagan's statements that are relevant to the current state of AI, particularly how Sam Altman is telling the public and the world about the potential for his AI.

I call it his AI because the things he has been saying are not justified and not supported by any science or experience that would confirm his predictions, claims, and statements.

Altman is not an AI scientist. He has no credentials that would give him credibility to support statements he has been making about his AI. (Yes, I know that the academic community has bestowed upon him honorary degrees, but they do not count for anything except recognition by the university that presented them to him.)

• He has not worked for years as an AI scientist.
• He has yet to make any significant discovery in the field of AI.
• There is no proof that his AI will do what he says.

Why are people listening to him?

From Dr. Sagan,

• "We make our world significant by the courage of our questions and the depth of our answers."

One must ask what significant questions Mr. Altman asks to substantiate his claims.

He has no credibility and is deceiving the public and even other scientists that his claims will come true.

Dr. Sagan has something to say about this phenomenon.

• "One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we have been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We're no longer in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back."

Until a catastrophic accident occurs, this is the risk and the problem.

Dr. Sagan has more to say about being bamboozled.

• "You can't convince a believer of anything, for their belief is not based on evidence; it's based on a deep-seated need to believe."

The believer would rather believe than face reality. In this case, the deep-seated belief is based on the vast amount of money funneled into current AI as they listen to Mr. Altman, the pied piper.

• "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

I ask Dr. Altman to prove his prognostications with actual and verified data. Here are some questions we should be asking — not Dr. Altman — but those scientists with nothing to lose by telling the truth.

What IS the evidence that this approach to AI has anything whatsoever that has any relationship to human intelligence? I am not asking for "what it looks like," but how is the methodology related to brain science? Where is the current brain science supporting AI as a precursor to human intelligence?

• What is the proof that the current craze of AI applications has been tested and verified? Where are the test plan and testing evidence?

After more than fifty years, including more than ten years (a decade) of being an AI scientist working to solve one specific problem of AI, I cannot support the AI that Mr. Altman is selling. It is like buying an automobile with no engine. Eventually, the driver may notice.

I am terribly disturbed by the damage that Mr. Altman had done to the field of AI. He basically has restored to prominence technology that was shelved twice before and was the cause of the two AI winters that occurred.

Thank you, Dr. Sagan, for setting us straight.

June 8, 2024

Dr. Randy Kaplan, Ph.D