US debt deal heads to vote despite hard-line conservative revolt

Last night, a significant milestone was reached in the United States as progress was made towards reaching a deal on the country's debt ceiling. Despite facing opposition from hard-liner conservatives, the deal successfully cleared its first procedural hurdle. However, the ultimate test lies ahead tonight with a crucial vote that will determine the fate of the agreement. Without an agreement, the U.S. would reach its borrowing limit on Monday, leading to potential default on its $31.4 trillion debt and causing severe repercussions such as non-payment of federal and military workers and a potential economic crisis.

Joining us now is Jordan Weissman, the Washington editor of the political newsletter "Semaphore." Jordan, thank you for joining us. Last night's clearance of the major hurdle is undoubtedly significant, but tonight's vote is the real make-or-break moment, isn't it?

Jordan: Absolutely. While there are still some last-minute procedural disputes taking place, the general consensus in Washington is that the deal is likely to pass. The numbers seem to be in favor of the bill, despite its imperfections. As we heard in the clips earlier, this deal involves compromises from both sides.

Host: Could you remind us of some of the key compromises that have been made?

Jordan: Certainly. This was an intense clash between Republicans and Democrats. Initially, Republicans pushed a bill along party lines that demanded substantial cuts to the annual budget, including the repeal of Joe Biden's climate legislation. Understandably, these demands were unlikely to gain traction with Democrats in the Senate or the White House. On the other hand, President Biden stated that he wouldn't negotiate at all, accusing Republicans of employing hostage tactics and deeming the entire process illegitimate. Eventually, both sides came together and engaged in negotiations, resulting in a budget deal that is somewhat normal. While it is slightly more favorable to the party out of power than usual, it isn't far from the norm. The deal includes a temporary freeze on certain federal spending, acceptance of some cuts in IRS investment, and the introduction of new work requirements for a major safety net program. Overall, while not perfect, the compromises are not catastrophic.

Host: Indeed, the willingness of Democrats to accept these compromises suggests that they understand the importance of reaching an agreement. However, given the looming deadline, can all the necessary paperwork be completed in time if the deal is passed tonight?

Jordan: I believe it is feasible. Although there may always be last-minute obstacles, the Senate seems prepared to expedite the process. It doesn't appear that anyone intends to delay the proceedings merely for the sake of providing fodder for reporters. So, if all goes well, there should be sufficient time to complete the required paperwork.

Host: That is reassuring to hear. These situations often bring attention to both economic and political aspects. In this case, what does the state of affairs reveal about the current frayed relations and divisions?

Jordan: While it may seem that House Republicans are highly fragmented, they are perhaps less so than initially perceived. The House Freedom Caucus represents a hard-line contingent that aimed for an extreme bill, demanding more than what was realistically achievable. However, the majority of House Republicans appear willing to support this compromise, recognizing the substantial budget savings it could yield. They are relatively content with what Speaker McCarthy has offered. Nonetheless, some hardliners have criticized the legislation as a betrayal and briefly discussed the possibility of ousting McCarthy. However, such talk has quickly subsided.

Host: The mood in the markets remains calm, and it seems like a deal will be reached. Yet, this process has endured for months, involving weeks of meticulous negotiations. If, by any chance, this deal falls through, is there any room for further negotiation and compromise?

Jordan: If the deal were to collapse at this late stage, it would undoubtedly be