How China rose to the top of the nuclear power world, and how the United States is attempting to make a comeback

Key Points

1. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that China is currently building 21 nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of 21.61 gigawatts. More than two and a half times as many nuclear reactors are being built in the United States as in any other nation.

2. China has two goals in mind when developing nuclear energy: It must fulfill a huge amount of energy demand, and in recent years, its reliance on coal has resulted in air pollution. A clean source of electricity is nuclear.

3. The success of the United States in regaining its nuclear dominance at this time, according to analysts, depends in great part on new, more compact modular reactor designs.

China has taken the lead globally in the development of new nuclear power.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, China is currently building 21 nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of more than 21 gigawatts. That is 2.5 times more nuclear reactors being built than in any other nation.

With eight reactors currently under construction that will be able to produce more than six gigawatts of power, India currently has the second-largest nuclear buildout. Turkey, which came in third, is currently building four nuclear reactors with an estimated 4.5 gigawatts of power.

The fourth reactor of the Vogtle power plant in Georgia, which will be able to produce little more than 1 gigawatt, is the only nuclear reactor currently being built in the United States. (A gigawatt can roughly power a mid-sized city for comparison's sake.)

According to Jacopo Buongiorno, a professor of nuclear science and engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "China is the de facto world leader in nuclear technology at the moment."

According to Kenneth Luongo, president and founder of the Partnership for Global Security, a non-profit organization focused on nuclear and transnational security and energy policy, China is "the determined and pacing leader in global nuclear ambition at the moment." China is "leading, even racing ahead," according to Luongo.

That wasn't always the case.

The fleet of nuclear reactors that the United States currently has is evidence of its former superiority.

According to the IAEA, there are 93 nuclear reactors in operation in the United States with a combined ability to produce more than 95 gigawatts of power. That much exceeds anything in any other nation. The World Nuclear Association stated in a recent report on the nuclear supply chain that many of those reactors should be operational for some time to come because nuclear reactors can be permitted to operate for 60 years and in some cases for as long as 80 years.

According to the IAEA, France is the nation with the second-highest number of operational nuclear reactors, with 56 reactors capable of producing over 61 gigawatts. With 55 operational reactors and a capacity of more than 53 gigawatts, China ranks in third.

"It is generally acknowledged that the United States no longer leads the world in nuclear energy. Midway through the 1980s, the tendency started, Luongo told CNBC.

The American nuclear industry was just getting begun, whereas China was just getting going.

According to Luongo, "China started constructing its first reactor in 1985, just as the U.S. nuclear build-out started to experience a steep decline."

How did China emerge as the world's nuclear power?

Because supply and demand are inversely correlated, new nuclear reactors are typically constructed in areas with rapidly growing economies.

According to the World Nuclear Association's most recent supply chain report, half of the nuclear reactors currently under construction are in non-OECD countries, including China, while more than 75% of the nuclear capacity currently in use is located in nations that are a part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

China's energy output has increased along with its GDP. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, China's overall energy output increased significantly from 1,280 terawatt hours in 2000 to 7,600 terawatt hours in 2020.

According to John F. Kotek, senior vice president of policy development and public affairs for the nuclear energy institute, an advocacy group, "the primary imperative is to meet what has been a staggering growth in demand over the past twenty years," he told CNBC. Therefore, they have been building a lot of everything, not just nuclear power plants.

According to the International Energy Agency, coal still generates almost two-thirds of the nation's electricity, with nuclear energy making up barely 5% of the total.

However, China's usage of coal to meet its soaring electrical demand has resulted in a secondary issue: polluted air. There is an urgent need for more clean electricity generation, according to Kotek, who spoke to CNBC. "With the huge growth in coal use, along with the dramatically increased private vehicle ownership, there has come a dire need for more clean electricity generation," he said.

Because nuclear energy production does not emit any greenhouse gases that contribute to air pollution or global warming, China has embraced nuclear power as a quick and efficient means to produce significant amounts of clean energy.

The Chinese have long been pro-nuclear, but they now appear to have made a commitment to a truly large scale that might reach 150 gigawatts in 15 years. And it appears that they will achieve that objective," Buongiorno told CNBC.

By a wide margin, this will be the largest nuclear capacity expansion in history, according to Buongiorno.

According to Luongo, China began its nuclear program by purchasing reactors from France, the US, and Russia. France helped China build its first domestic reactor, the Hualong.

The government's tight control over the economy as a whole and the energy industry is one factor contributing to China's dominance.

According to Luongo, who spoke to CNBC, "They built a state-supported, financed industry that allows them to build multiple nuclear units at a lower cost." Other than state funding, a state-supported supply chain, and a state commitment to develop the technology, they don't have any special sauce.

Although China's emphasis on developing nuclear energy benefits the world's climate, it also presents geopolitical difficulties.

According to Buongiorno, China's expertise and dedication to nuclear power are advantageous for the technology, the country's energy security, grid stability, economy, and air quality, as well as the prevention of global climate change. "The fear is the geopolitical and economic dependence on China that such initiatives will generate for other countries if they begin to export nuclear technology. The same reasoning holds true for Russia.

U.S. staking its future on cutting-edge nuclear technology

According to experts, the United States may catch up and reclaim some of its old nuclear superiority.

With varying degrees of success, the United States and Europe have steadily resumed developing nuclear energy.

These nations only recently (10–15 years) resumed construction of nuclear power plants. The supply chain and specialist staff had almost entirely vanished, which led to significant cost overruns and timetable delays, according to Buongiorno.

For example, the two massive new nuclear reactors at the Vogtle Plant in Georgia have earned a reputation for taking significantly longer than anticipated and exceeding initial budget projections.

But the United States is moving to reclaim its prior hegemony in the nuclear arena.

"The United States has overturned its domestic political hostility to nuclear power. According to Luongo, it is now a rare instance of a nonpartisan topic.

According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, both Democrats and Republicans are becoming increasingly supportive of nuclear energy: 57 percent of Americans say they favor building more nuclear reactors to provide electricity, up from 43 percent in 2020.

The United States sells some sizable nuclear reactors to eastern Europe while offering subsidies to keep some nuclear plants operating. However, the nation is betting a large portion of its ambition on expanding the market for small modular and advanced reactor technology and creating the necessary fuel enrichment capacity.

According to Buongiorno, "the US may catch up if the new technologies being researched here — compact modular reactors and microreactors above all — would prove to be technically and commercially effective, which is now doubtful.

Smaller nuclear reactors are more affordable not just because they are smaller, but also because their modular design enables the production of individual components in a factory and on-site assembly. As opposed to creating each reactor as a boutique one-off, that procedure is quicker and less expensive.

While some other small modular reactor designs are "more exotically fueled and cooled," Luongo said, like the TerraPower Nuclear Reactor or the X-Energy high-temperature gas cooled reactors, the Westinghouse AP300 and the NuScale small modular reactor are scaled-down versions of light-water reactors, which is the design used by the majority of conventional nuclear reactors.

According to Luongo, "the United States government is investing billions of dollars into their development and demonstration in the hope that they will function, be more affordable than large reactors, and give the United States a larger market for their export." "When the demonstration phase is required by Congress in 2027, we'll see where we are. In some technologies, there are existing delays and rising costs.

Small modular reactors are excellent for supplying heat for industrial operations in addition to being smaller and less expensive to construct, according to Kotek of the Nuclear Energy Institute.

In addition to wanting to export nuclear reactor technology, the United States is trying to revive its nuclear sector.

The United States is aiming to reposition itself to be a key contender in the next 15 years after deciding that it is at a disadvantage in the nuclear export field. "The Trump administration started this, and Biden has stepped it up," Luongo told CNBC. Large nuclear reactors, like those being delivered to Eastern Europe, will make up some of this export business, but "a significant part of this strategy is small modular and advanced reactors," Luongo added.

Again, the US is up against China in this situation.

"China correctly sees the nuclear energy sector as a strategic one. They are aware that exporting nuclear energy promotes the development of strong bonds with international allies. Thus, they have made significant investments in their domestic nuclear energy capacity and are currently looking to export their reactor designs to other countries, according to Kotek, speaking to CNBC. According to Kotek, both China and Russia provide "very attractive financing" and other types of incentives to expand their nuclear industries abroad.

The United States must demonstrate its ability to mine steel domestically in order to secure the export contract.

The United States is known for having the most advanced nuclear energy technology, but Kotek told CNBC that having great plans is not enough because most other countries want to see the technology in action before they consider implementing it. Therefore, the United States would be sensible to encourage an expedited build-out of next-generation nuclear energy systems domestically, so that we're in a position to take proven designs into the global marketplace and reclaim our position as the top exporter of nuclear energy globally.

As the need for clean energy keeps rising, competition for the top rank in the global nuclear business will intensify.

"We and our close nuclear allies are at what I think is just the start of a fierce competition for supremacy in the global nuclear energy export markets," Kotek added.