Year-End Clearance (AFC Week 17)

We are down to the final two weeks of the 2023 NFL season, and it's gut check time. The last two weeks are do or die, with the final week putting that phrase to good use. Before 2021, Week 17 served as the final week of the season, but even though it's not anymore, it's still very climactic. In addition, while Christmas was the centerpiece of Week 16, Week 17 is about bringing in the New Year. In the case of this season, 14 of this week's 16 games will take place on New Year's Eve, with no more Monday games for the rest of the season.

This is my third year mapping out the clinching scenarios on Vocal, but for the second time in those three years, I have to split them up and give each conference their own story. The reason is simple: a lot can happen this week--so much so that each conference can pretty much have their own story. The American Football Conference has a lot to decide; all four divisions can be clinched this week, and two other teams can join the party as well. So let's take a look at the AFC playoff picture, and the scenarios.

Baltimore Ravens (12-3)

The Baltimore Ravens still lead the entire conference at 12-3, improving to that record with their big Christmas Day win over the San Francisco 49ers. The win allowed Baltimore to control their own destiny regarding everything in the conference. First off, the AFC North. A win or tie would give them the division, with the second option being a Browns loss or tie. The Ravens could clinch the division as early as Thursday, and in addition, a win would also give the Ravens the #1 seed in the AFC. The Ravens will play during New Year's Eve's early window; a home game against the team sitting at #2 in the conference:

Miami Dolphins (11-4)

The Miami Dolphins increased to 11-4 with their last second win over the Dallas Cowboys, and they are the only team who can challenge the Ravens for the #1 seed in the AFC. In fact, they face the Ravens this week. The win over Dallas put them in the playoffs. A win over the Ravens this week would give them the AFC East. A tie would do so as well. The Bills losing or tying would also give Miami the division. Most important of all, the Dolphins winning over the Ravens would give both teams identical 12-4 records, with head-to-head going to Miami. With that, a win on the final week would lock up #1 in the conference.

Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)

The Kansas City Chiefs are in a peck of trouble entering Week 17. They entered Christmas Day with a golden opportunity to lock up the AFC West, but they completely fizzled against the Las Vegas Raiders on their own field. As a result, not only do they have to wait to clinch the division, but they are eliminated in the chase for the #1 seed meaning that Patrick Mahomes will have to play on Super Wild Card Weekend for the second time in his career. The Chiefs can still capture the West this week, and still control their own destiny; a win or tie will get it done, or the Raiders and Broncos both failing to win. The Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals in Sunday's late window, but here's the thing, KC has lost three straight home games. The defending champs are in quite the dire situation.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)

If the Chiefs' situation is dire, then the Jacksonville Jaguars are basically at DEFCON 1--or very close to it. Their blowout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was their third straight, but lucky for them, everyone else in the AFC South lost. The Jags can still win the division by winning out, but this week's scenario has the Jags needing a win and losses from both Indy and Houston to clinch the South. Here's the problem: is Trevor Lawrence going to play at all this season? Lawrence suffered a shoulder injury during the blowout loss, and it was in his throwing shoulder as well. They need Lawrence, even in their game against the 2-13 Carolina Panthers, because if Lawrence can't play and the Jags somehow lose this, then they need Colts or Texans to lose. If the Jags lose and both of their division foes win this week, the Jags will be eliminated from the division race, as the Colts and Texans actually face each other on the final week.

Cleveland Browns (10-5)

It's amazing how the Cleveland Browns are just winning games left and right. I'm dead serious, what they are doing is absolutely fascinating. The Browns entered Week 16 needing just two wins to reach the playoffs. They picked up a big won on Christmas Eve against the Texans, and as a result, they control their own destiny. The Browns play on Thursday Night Football against the Jets, and a win or tie against New York clinches it. In addition, they not only have a plan B, they have a plan C, D, and E as well. Even if the Browns lose, they can get in with a Steelers loss/tie, a Bills loss, a Jags loss or tie, or losses from both Indy and Houston. Cleveland still has a chance at winning the AFC North, but they need to win out and the Ravens have to lose out--that is the only way that the Browns can win their first division title since 1989.

Buffalo Bills (9-6)

Despite their up and down season, the Buffalo Bills still have a chance of clinching a playoff spot this week. They do need a lot of help, and I do mean a lot. Buffalo has 14 ways to get in, with the first five seeing the Bills needing a win and two or three of the 8-7 teams to lose. The remaining nine scenarios require a tie and three of the 8-7 teams to lose. So yeah, the Bills and their fans will be doing a lot of scoreboard watching on New Year's Eve. The Bills still have a shot at the AFC East this season; if the Dolphins lose, the Bills can take the division by winning out, which includes the head-to-head finale between the Bills and Dolphins in the final week. The Bills host the lowly, lowly Patriots in Sunday's early window, but knowing the Bills like I do, they better be serious. They tend to lose to the faulty teams.

So those are the teams who can clinch this week. But the story doesn't end there.

The 8-7 Teams

The playoff picture includes a four-team 8-7 logjam featuring the Indianapolis Colts, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Houston Texans, and the Cincinnati Bengals. Week 16 saw the Steelers beat down the Bengals, while the Colts and Texans lost their games, resulting in this four way tie. Pittsburgh swept the season series over Cincy, Houston has head-to-head over Pittsburgh, and Indy has head-to-head over Houston, resulting in the Colts being the lone 8-7 team above the playoff line at the #7 spot. None of these teams can clinch spots this week, but regarding the final two weeks combined, Indy's in if they win out. Both Indy and Houston have a good shot at the division; if the Jags lose this week and both of them win, the winner of their head-to-head match takes the division. The Texans will host the Tennessee Titans in Sunday's early window.

The Steelers have been sputtering a tad, but their win over the Bengals gave them a puncher's chance of actually getting into the playoffs. However, while they do hold head-to-head over Cincy, they have lost games to Indy and Houston this year. The Steelers need to win out and both Indy and Houston have to lose one to get in to the playoffs. As for Cincy, they need to win out and need the three others 8-7 teams to slip. Indy is the only team who can't be eliminated from playoff contention this week, but luckily for the other three teams, their elimination scenario isn't "lose and out." The Steelers will be in Seattle this week, and I'll definitely be pulling for Pitt, but that's another story.

Las Vegas Raiders & Denver Broncos (7-8 each)

The Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos are somehow still alive, and not just in the Wild Card race. Each team actually has a legit shot of winning the AFC West. Yes, Denver--who just lost to the Patriots at home--can still win the division. The Raiders will face the aforementioned Colts in Sunday's early window, while Broncos host the Los Angeles Chargers in the late window. And then there's the final week: the Broncos and Raiders will run into each other. If KC loses and both of these teams win this week, a KC loss to LA on the final week will turn this head-to-head game into a division championship contest, with the winner taking the West. That's what we're facing. As for elimination scenarios, both teams have the "lose and out" stipulation.

The AFC has a lot to decide and it makes for a very amazing Week 17! New Year's Eve will definitely get the proverbial ball rolling, right before the ball drops!