Why Patrik Laine Will Win the Calder

Each year, the NHL Draft brings a new crop of talent. Teams with the benefit of having a first overall pick get the chance to add a young player who might turn the franchise around. Some players wind up being superstars, like Crosby, Ovechkin, or Stamkos. Other times, names like Stefan or DiPietro are more synonymous with failure or bust. In recent years, the NHL Draft has been full of depth — offering any team with a top five pick the chance to grab a great player.

That was true once again this season when Auston Matthews was selected first overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs. While Matthews seemed to be the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall from the very start, it is the second overall pick who has made the Calder Trophy race highly contested. Patrik Laine, selected second overall by the Winnipeg Jets, has remained in step with Matthews statistically as the year has gone on and currently leads the way in rookie scoring. Despite missing time due to injury, Laine has produced at an amazing clip. Just last week, Laine grabbed his third career hat trick, and hasn’t even turned 19-years-old.

Here’s why Patrik Laine is the better candidate for the Calder Trophy:

Exceeding Expectations

Auston Matthews entered the NHL with high expectations. As the first overall pick Matthews immediately drew attention league-wide, and the standing consensus tends to be that the first pick will lead the race for Rookie of the Year. To be fair, Matthews has at least met these expectations. He hasn’t shown much of an adjustment period in coming to the NHL. On his very first night, he scored four times. He hasn’t scored four goals every night, but he has found consistency this season.

Laine had his fair share of high expectations too, but has gone from playing in the shadow of the league’s top pick to out-pacing him in every category. Laine was expected, optimistically, to be the second-best rookie this season. However, he has surpassed Matthews in offensive statistics and in leading his team. Laine has 30 goals to Matthews’ 28, and leads him in points as well. He also has an astonishing shot percentage of 19.9%, putting him in the top ten overall. He’s scored those 30 goals on just 151 shots. Matthews, on the other hand, is one of the most frequent shooters in the game, netting his 28 goals in 206 shots. Laine has proven to be more efficient and has converted more often than his Toronto counterpart. He is averaging nearly a point per game, is second in the league in goals per game (0.55) and is third behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in goals created per game (0.41). He’s responsible for the third most offensive point shares (6.5) in the league, in step with Malkin and MVP candidate Connor McDavid. Matthews lags behind in every one of these categories.

While it may not be surprising to see Laine put up such big numbers, it is surprising to see him adjust so quickly to the NHL while outperforming a player like Matthews or other stars like McDavid.

More With Less

While Laine’s efficiency has been outstanding, this idea is about more than that. This extends to the fact that Laine has also played less games than Matthews, having missed time due to a concussion. With his first major injury behind him rather quickly, Laine jumped right back into competition with a four-game point streak that saw him grab six points (2G, 4A). Laine is smashing franchise rookie records in Winnipeg and has done so with great efficiency.

The most obvious way this applies, though, is in the overall makeup of the two teams. Laine plays for a Winnipeg Jets team that stands outside the playoff race, while Toronto is in the midst of a potential run at a division title. Looking at the two teams as a whole, Laine is the true bright spot on a team that is struggling (all due respect to Mark Scheifele), while Matthews is one cog in a wheel that is rolling along just fine. The management of Lou Lamoriello, Brendan Shanahan, and Mike Babcock have the most to do with Toronto’s turnaround. While Matthews is becoming the key to the system, there is plenty of talent up and down this roster to drive Toronto’s current success. In Winnipeg, the story is much different. The team has a great top line, and Laine is the epicenter of it. Beyond that, the team has had its share of injuries and struggles — especially in net. In many ways, Laine is carrying the Jets on his back; Matthews has the benefit of sharing that load in Toronto.

Perhaps the expectations for Matthews have taken some pressure off of Laine and allowed him to focus on his own game without comparison. Whatever the reason, he’s on track to win the trophy and make history in doing so. The last Finnish-born player to win the Calder Trophy was also the last Winnipeg Jet to do so. Laine looks to follow in the footsteps of the Finnish Flash himself, Teemu Selanne, and become a legend in his own right.