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The Final Countdown (Week 18)

A look at the playoff scenarios for the 18th and final week of the 2022 regular season

By Clyde E. DawkinsPublished about a year ago 7 min read
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First off, the most important news of the entire season: Damar Hamlin is continuing to improve! The most recent report revealed that Hamlin actually touched a relative's hand, and then asked--in writing--the following three-word question:

"Did we win?"

Damar received a touching answer from the doctors: "Yes, Damar. You won...you won the game of life." Everyone is so elated over Hamlin's increased recovery; he was, and still is, in all of our thoughts and has been since that Monday night, and here's hoping that positive road to recovery continues!

After three days of speculation regarding the fate of the Monday Night contest between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals, the NFL officially announced that the game is now cancelled. As a result of the cancellation, the Bengals are AFC North Champions for the second straight year. However, Week 18 still has quite a lot to decide. This is the second year of the current 18-week regular season, which begins with a Saturday doubleheader, followed by 13 games on Sunday's regional coverage, and ending with Sunday Night Football to close the regular season. It's not as chaotic as last season, but it's still quite intriguing. Here's what is at stake for the final week.

Because of the cancellation, the Bills and Bengals will have a 16-game season, while the rest will play the full 17. As a result, the Kansas City Chiefs enter the final week as the #1 seed in the AFC by a half game. Also, only the Chiefs and Bills remain alive for the #1 seed, though the NFL may consider placing the AFC Championship at a neutral site should Kansas City face either Buffalo or Cincinnati (two teams who defeated KC this season) in the last stop before the Super Bowl. If they adopt this, and they most likely will, then a Chiefs win will only get them the bye that comes with the #1 seed. It can also be clinched with a Bills loss, or if each team ties. If KC wins and Buffalo losses or ties, or if KC ties and Buffalo loses, then KC gets the bye and the home field that comes with the #1 seed. However, if the Bills win and KC loses or ties, then the Bills clinch everything. The Chiefs will kick off Week 18 in Las Vegas on Saturday, while the Bills will be in Foxboro on Sunday.

As for the Bengals, they're hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, but the AFC North race is over. However, if the Ravens defeat the Bengals, and they end up facing each other in a Wild Card matchup, then there's a possibility that the home field site could be determined via a coin flip, as both teams would have the same number of wins if the Ravens win. If Cincy wins, there will be no need for a coin flip.

Winner clinches the AFC South, though the Jags have another way in

This, in my view, is the AFC's main event for Week 18. The central scenario for this game became official on Week 16, when the Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the New York Jets, and the Tennessee Titans shockingly lost at home to the Houston Texans. The Jags picked up another game in the division standings and enter this pivotal matchup in sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Becasue of this, while the winner clinches the division and enters the playoffs as the #4 seed, the Jags can also clinch the division if the game ends tied. Despite the division's standings, this game isn't completely do-or-die. If the Titans lose, that's it, their season's over after a 7-3 start. If the Jaguars lose, there's still a backup play, but it's complicated. The AFC South Championship Game will be the second leg of the Saturday doubleheader. If Jacksonville loses this game, their only way into the playoffs is if the Dolphins, Patriots, and Steelers all lose. If even one of them even ties, that's it for Jacksonville. As stunning as this sounds, we could see two playoff teams at 8-9, with one of them being the AFC South Champions.

The Patriots are the only 8-8 team (out of the three) who controls their own destiny

The only other playoff spot remaining in the AFC is the last Wild Card position, and entering the final week, it's the New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins, and the Pittsburgh Steelers all vying for that last spot. The Patriots win over the Dolphins moved them above the playoff line and into that prime position, and they enter the final week as the lone team who controls their own destiny. All they have to do to return to the playoffs: defeat the Bills at home. That's it. If they tie, then they'll need Miami and Pittsburgh to loss or tie, and they can actually back into the playoffs, as losses from Miami and Pittsburgh, as well as a Jacksonville win or tie, will put them in. The Dolphins, who have lost five straight, will face the New York Jets, who have also lost five straight and were eliminated last week. Miami needs a win and a New England loss or tie to get in. If they tie, New England has to lose, and Pittsburgh cannot win. As for the Steelers, their victory over the Ravens kept them alive and gave them a chance to clinch on the final week for the second straight year. If they win, and Miami and New England do not win, they're in. If they tie, the Fins and Pats both have to lose. The Steelers host the Browns on Sunday.

The NFC has three teams alive for the #1 seed: the Philadelphia Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers, and now, the Dallas Cowboys. Once again, Philly wins or ties, they get it all. If Dallas loses or ties, Philly wins the NFC East. If both Dallas and San Francisco fail to win, Philly gets it all. Regarding the Cowboys, if they win and Philly loses, Dallas wins the East. If the Niners lose or tie in addition to the scenario, Dallas gets the #1 seed. The Niners have already clinched the NFC West. If they win and Philly loses, they get the #1 seed. The Cowboys are in DC against the Commanders, the Niners host the Arizona Cardinals, and the Eagles will host the New York Giants. All three games will be in Sunday's late window.

The Seahawks, despite being above the playoff line, don't control their own destiny

Finally, there's the pursuit for the NFC's lone remaining playoff spot. Here's how this was set up. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Carolina Panthers to clinch the NFC South, and as a result, the Panthers were eliminated. The Giants clinched a playoff spot with their win, while the Washington Commanders lost their third straight. The Commanders were eliminated when the Green Bay Packers routed the Minnesota Vikings, and the win also eliminated the New Orleans Saints. The Seattle Seahawks and the Detroit Lions also won, giving us three 8-8 teams pursuing that spot. The Hawks moved above the playoff line, but despite this, they need help to stay there. They host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday's late window, and they need a win and a Packers loss or tie to get in.

Speaking of the Packers...

The Packers are in with a win

I left New Year's Day on Cloud Nine. The Packers were dead in the water as recently as three weeks ago! They entered Week 16 needing everything to go right for them. It did. They entered Lambeau facing a "lose and out" elimination scenario after the Detroit Lions won. They won, and eliminated two other teams. Now it comes down to this. The Packers host the Lions in what is a true do-or-die game that will end the regular season on Sunday Night Football. However, that all depends on what happens in the Seahawks/Rams game. If the Seahawks win, the Lions are eliminated. If the Seahawks lose, they're eliminated, and whoever wins this Sunday Night finale is in. And here's the thing: it's only Detroit who is depending on the outcome of Seahawks/Rams. The Packers control their own destiny. Let me repeat that, because it sounds so beautiful. We control our own destiny. We win, we're in. Period.

Again, this year's Week 18 is a lot different from last year's finale. Last year, the NFC was nearly settled while the AFC had a lot to figure out. This year, it's about equal. Each conference has the #1 seed and the final playoff spot left to decide, though the AFC has the bonus of a division championship game to play out. One thing that remains the same about the final week: the thrills. It will be an amazing finale to what has been quite a surprising season, and I am very excited to see what Week 18 brings us!

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About the Creator

Clyde E. Dawkins

I am an avid fan of sports and wrestling, and I've been a fan of female villains since the age of eight. Also into film and TV, especially Simpsons and Family Guy.

Feel free to follow my social media:

Twitter - Facebook - Tiktok - Instagram

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  • Heather Hublerabout a year ago

    Great recap!!

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