Rafael Devers Did the Impossible

Aroldis Chapman is not immune to home runs. He’s given up 19 of them in the regular season in his 8 year career. What’s crazy is that only one has before come off a 102+ MPH, and none have come off of a faster pitch than this.

Here is every single MLB HR from 2013–2017, grouped by pitch velocity.

I’m assuming that the left end of the chart is Jered Weaver’s doing, and the middle of the chart is generally where most MLB pitchers live, but we’re principally concerned with the right side of the chart. After 93 MPH, there’s a significant drop-off in home runs because few pitchers throw significantly harder, and it’s harder to hit a faster pitch.

But there are two anomalies here — there’s a tiny little blip at 103 MPH, showing that two HR since 2013 have been hit off of pitches 103 MPH. Dever’s homerun, and a dinger from Kurt Suzuki, who hit one off of (you guessed it) Chapman last season at 102.6 MPH. Dever’s dinger came off a pitch 102.8 MPH — beating out Suzuki as the fastest pitch ever hit out since 2008, when tracking data began.

Consider the historical unfairness of Chapman — only three pitchers ever (Bobby Parnell, Joel Zumaya, and Chapman) have been accurately clocked in as hitting 103+ MPH. For Parnell and Zumaya, those record breaking pitches were the maximum effort that they could give — but Chapman regularly lives in the 102–103 range.

There’s a great dispute over who the fastest pitcher in baseball history is, as we only have relatively accurate measurements from after WWII — but it’s not hyperbole to think that Chapman is possibly the hardest-throwing pitcher ever, as even with the rudimentary measurements of Walter Johnson and Bob Feller, they might have only ever topped 100 MPH.

Knowing how few pitchers in MLB history have ever thrown 103 MPH, and knowing how infrequently players have hit home runs off said pitches — it’s possible that Devers hit the fastest pitch ever hit for a home run. Not bad for a 20 year old.