Qualifying Offer Part Two: Pitchers

The World Series may have been an incredible finish to the 2017 season, but baseball is a 365-day business. All thirty teams had until the afternoon of November 6 to issue a qualifying offer to any of their pending free agents. The qualifying offer is a one-year deal with a value equal to the average of MLB’s top 125 salaries in the most current season. This year, the value is $17.4 million.

The details revolving the qualifying offer in regards to draft pick forfeiture and compensation are too complicated to explain here, but you can read them on Major League Baseball’s website.

This year, nine players received the qualifying offer. Players who are expected to earn well over the value of the QO were obvious candidates to receive one, such as Jake Arrieta and Mike Moustakas. We will not discuss those guys, because any team willing to shell out the big bucks for them is probably not going to be deterred by draft pick forfeiture. However, this series will discuss the guys on the lower end of the earning power spectrum, including players who did not receive one at all!

Lance Lynn

In a strong four-year stretch from 2012-2015, Lance Lynn was the 17th best pitcher in baseball by FIP and 19th by fWAR. Lynn’s performance was phenomenal, but succumbed to Tommy John surgery that sidelined him in 2016. Lynn’s return to the mound this year brought familiar results (a 3.43 ERA and 186.1 IP), and now his agents are looking to score him a five-year deal worth $100 million.

Unfortunately, it is unlikely he will get that contract, and the QO does not help him much. Lynn’s peripherals this year included a strikeout rate the declined from a career 22.9 percent to 19.7 percent. Additionally, Lynn’s career walk rate of 8.7 percent jumped up to 10.1 percent. His career FIP had been a strong 3.36; in 2017, it was an ugly 4.82. Part of the problem was that he gave up a lot more homers (1.3 HR/9, one of the worst marks in the league), and his BABIP was an extremely low .244 that might spell doom for him in the future.

The draft pick forfeiture attached to Lynn is going to hurt his market more with better pitchers such as Alex Cobb available at at similar price. Additionally, up to 20 players from MLB Trade Rumors’ Top 50 Free Agents list could be considered relievers; teams may elect to sign two or three relievers at a cheaper price than Lance Lynn, all while avoiding draft pick forfeiture.

Alex Cobb

I am not sure how much Alex Cobb will get this offseason. Not too many years, because he is 30 and missed two full seasons. Not too much money, because he is the third or fourth best pitcher on the market, and there are a ton of relievers available. However, if this guy is bought at a discount, it will absolutely be worth the draft pick compensation. It was a savvy move by Tampa to extend Cobb the QO because they see his metrics and know how valuable a team might find him to be.

Cobb posted a career-low walk rate in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, which is impressive. He also historically posts strong ground-ball rates, along with a strong xwOBA (.315) the first two times against the opposing batting order. According to FanGraphs, Cobb had the tenth most valuable curveball in the game this year, and we all know how important that is becoming.

It is very likely an analytical team such as the Cubs will be very interested in Cobb. Cobb is a much better pitcher than Lynn but available at the same price. On that line of thinking, despite the industry being slightly surprised that the Rays offered Cobb the QO, it makes perfect sense for everyone because Cobb will both reject the QO and still get good money.

All Those Relievers

Are you a team with a window of contention that might not last six years? Do you want to avoid having to dish out 6/$160 million (a $27 million AAV) for 180 innings a year from a 31-to-36-year-old Yu Darvish? Do you want to avoid paying big money and forfeiting draft picks to get Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb? What if I offered you three high-end relievers, each on deals no longer than three years and for AAVs adding up to no more than $20 million? If so, ask your general manager about Mike Minor, Tyler Chatwood, and Anthony Swarzak. They are all great; they add up to 180 quality innings; they are cheaper; and they do not require long commitments. Ask your GM about these relievers, the right pitching staff for you.

After a postseason that brought national recognition to tandem starting, early pulls, and heavy bullpen usage, we can expect pitching depth to be all the rage this winter (or at least even more so than usual). To make things even more interesting, there is a ton of pitching depth available this winter on the free agent market! As I noted before, up to 40 percent of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list can be considered relievers. It is possible there will be gems snapped up in January by teams that do not want to commit four years or $50-$150 million on a starter. Not all of these relievers will get three or four years, nor will all of them get an AAV of $7 million. That is just the nature of a market teeming with talent, so these relievers without QOs attached may be the new cool thing to acquire in bunches. We will find out soon enough!

That will wrap up our discussion of pitchers, and therefore our discussion of players who received the qualifying offer. As always, if there are any interesting developments, we will discuss them in a later column. Next time, we will focus on former Reds shortstop and QO snub Zack Cozart!