NBA Top Shot Value Explained

NBA Top Shot is an officially licensed digital collectible created by Dapper Labs. Videos of amazing NBA plays called “Moments” are captured and packaged in a digital trading card using block chain technology. Specifically this is an NFT (or non-fungible token). You can learn more about blockchain here and NFTs here. These Moments are acquired through opening packs (note: it is pretty difficult to get a pack right now but not impossible) or buying individual cards on Top Shot’s Marketplace. After experiencing the platform for myself, I truly think the concept of NFTs will change the way we collect and consume things on the internet.

Who is interested?

• Blockchain/crypto enthusiasts - anybody who believes that Bitcoin is the next thing in currency is all over NFTs and Top Shot.
• Card Traders - it gives them everything they get from the cardboard market and more. Although, some of the community is against digital collectibles.
• Fantasy Sports Enthusiasts - the skills that make you good at fantasy sports make you good at trading sports collectibles. In the future, there will be an app called Hardcourt where you can use your cards in fantasy basketball contests.
• Casual NBA Fan - The “Sportscenter Top Ten Moments” will always elicit feelings of excitement in the everyday person

How do these things become valuable?

As I write this, a total of four moments have sold for the price of $100,000. This is currently the highest a moment can be sold for as the site is still in Beta mode. The number one question I think people have about this is -- “Why is this more valuable than the same clip I can watch on Youtube?” Great question. It is the same reason why printing out a picture of Lebron James rookie card is not worth the price of the paper it is printed on while a “10” graded rookie card of Lebron is worth over $10,000. The card market is able to layer value in unique ways - printing techniques, machinery, licensing, etc. Blockchain technology allows The same thing is happening here so let’s take a look.

Name Value

A player's own brand has a spectrum of values. The NBA does a fantastic job of branding and marketing their superstars. These 4 stars are a mix of superstar HOF vets and Uber talented up and comers. Name value can fluctuate with individual plays in big moments, like a buzzer beater 3-pointer in the playoffs. Name value changes in similar ways to the way player value changes in fantasy sports. This is unique because everything can be traded so quickly, player values can spike and fall from play to play, game to game, and season to season. Capitalizing on these quick changes in player value is not possible in the traditional trading card market. Well, it is, but you can’t instantly trade the assets to cash in on the value of a player who just made a massive play on a big stage. More on this later.

Rarity of card

Blockchain technology allows Top Shot to create scarcity of these moments in a secure way. The unique blockchain code used by DapperLabs, called FLOW, prevents these Moments from being reproduced and blockchain's ability to track an asset from creation to the platform then from user to user prevents any internet thieves from engaging in any tom-foolery. It's the same as “Topps” having unique printing presses and machinery to produce cards, or even the US government having the same thing to print money. You need the blockchain code owned by Top Shot to create NBA Licensed Moments. This is what makes it “non-fungible”, unique, different from just any old video on YouTube. It's important to note here that Moments are scarce AND the NBA decided this is the unique token they wanted to license - that's huge.

Top Shot packages Moments in aesthetically pleasing ways that highlights their rarity such as HOLO MMXX and Cosmic. They also release the Moment's in themed sets. The current rarities are:

• Common - Anything with over 1,000 mints (copies)
• Rare - anything with under 1,000 mints
• Legendary - anything with under 100 mints - some moments in this tier have gone for 100K.
• Platinum Ice Ultimate - Only 3 mints - these are not available yet and will only be available during via auction.
• Genesis Ultimate - Only 1 minted and only available through auction.

Type of Play

Here is what I believe to be the loose hierarchy of “Type of Play Value”

• Dunk - Everyone’s favorite, you don’t need to know a lot about basketball to appreciate a good dunk
• Block - The defensive version of a dunk
• 3 Pointer - the finesse play, I think the value here can fluctuate with the context of the three pointer and the depth. Steph Curry’s 60 footer 3 pointer is way more valuable than a typical 3 pointer.
• Steal - I am not sure if this is correct but it sure felt right. I think that matters.
• Jumpshot
• Lay-up
• Handles
• Assist

Note -- the context of how “clutch” the play is: when it happened, on what stage, etc. matters. A steal in the NBA finals to clinch the game is worth way more than a typical dunk. A high flying assist for an alley-oop dunk in the playoffs will be more valuable than a typical jumpshot etc.

Series

I believe that “series” is a store of long term value. Even common Moments will be valuable as long as they are “series 1” this depends on if Top Shot is here to say. Hold your common Moments if they are "Series 1" and have a few other things going for them

Number within an edition

Another layer of value storage is the number within an edition. A 1/25000 is way more valuable than a 557/25000. This is just the way the market currently works in its infancy and human desire to hold the “first” of something. Other numbers have extra value as well. Examples:

• Same number as the player’s jersey
• Any “23”
• The last number of an edition
• Popular numbers, 666, 420, 69, 888 etc.

The "Moment"

I alluded to this final store of value earlier but I think this is what is going to be the biggest reason why even casual sports fans will invest in this.

Allen Iverson Stepping over Ty Lue, Ray Allen hitting a corner three to tie Game 6 in the NBA Finals, Tyler Herro's "snarl" after an and-one in the playoffs last year. These moments make people feel something and if we can get this out there for people to own, interact with, and enjoy I think it will take off. It won’t matter that its block chain or “galaxy opal” to the everyday person. The moment, in concert with a players individual name value, is the most valuable aspect for the everyday person. My hope is that there is some sort of way to “display” your moments in the physical world as well. I am picturing a popular holiday gift in Philadelphia being a digital frame containing a set of “Moments” from a 76ers playoff run 9if that ever happens, ZING!). These “Moments” can elicit feelings that baseball cards and traditional trading cards can’t.

The bigger the stage the bigger the player the bigger the hype the more valuable the ”Moment”.

Now, let's take a look at the "anatomy" of a card that went for $100,00 on the top shot marketplace.

The only reason this card isn't going for more right now is because the site is in beta as Top Shot onboards a larger user base. During this time, the highest a card can go for is 100K. Imagine what this thing could go for if Morant continues his meteoric rise and the platform has hundreds of thousands of users.

In closing, I want to make sure everyone knows that there are plenty of things that could go wrong with this. I'll write about those more in another article, but before you put money into this you should know that the site is often down for maintenance and it is currently impossible to withdraw funds. Dapper Labs has a disclaimer in their site that mandates an identity check - complete with a picture of your license and a facial scan - and several weeks (I've heard 6) of transactions. If dealing with that uncertainty and the bugs in the site is worth it to you to get on the ground floor, invest away. It's a lot of fun.