MLB Pennant Race 2026: What in the World?!

I was originally going to wait a week to start my weekly recap of the pennant races in this home stretch of the MLB season, but there are certain things I just have to glaze over. But let's look at the scenario here. There are five weeks--35 days--left in the MLB regular season. Barely over a month left! There's a lot to decide, which is normal; five weeks isn't a whole lot, but it's more than enough time for teams to go on a run.

Of course, this is the fifth year of the current Postseason format that allows 12 teams to qualify (six in each league). The top two of the three division winners head straight to the Division Series, while the other teams face of in the best-of-three Wild Card Series. One series will feature the #3 seed (the lowest division winner) against the #6 seed (the lowest Wild Card), while the other series will feature the #4 seed (the highest Wild Card) against the #5 seed (the 2nd Wild Card). The winner of the 3/6 series faces the #2 seed in the Division Series, while the winner of the 4/5 series will face the #1 seed. It's a case of the margin of error increasing bit by bit. The Wild Card Series is best-of-three, the Division Series is best-of-five, and the LCS and World Series are both best-of-seven.

So let's look at the story so far:

American League East

The stories in the American League are why I'm starting early with this weekly recap. First off, let's talk about what's on top of the junior circuit. The three best records in the AL are all in the East: the Tampa Bay Rays, the New York Yankees, and the Boston Red Sox. They are the only teams with 70+ wins at this point. The Rays lead the division, but they are on a skid. After winning nine straight, Tampa Bay's lost seven of their last 10 games. The Yankees have capitalized on TB's recent woes, winning six our last seven and moving within three games of the division lead. As for the Red Sox, they just can't stop winning games, yikes. Granted they did finally slow down and lose five straight, but they followed that up with yet another winning tear--having won seven of their last 10 games.

These three teams will definitely be in the postseason, but here's the thing. The East winner will most likely be #1 in the entire league, and one of these three teams will start the postseason on the road.

As for what else is going on in the American League:

Not What Kool Moe Dee Envisioned

Five weeks left in the season, and nobody in the American League West has a .500 record. A few months ago, I wrote about the AL West being mid at the one-third point of the season, but I thought it would improve. Then again, I also thought the A's had a shot at the division. That's what I get for thinking. The Astros still suck, but the West continued to collapse upon itself in the months that passed. As a result, we have the Astros and Rangers tied for first place... at 65-66. Houston has the tiebreaker; their season series is already over, and Houston finished with a 9-4 record against their in-state rivals. The Mariners have taken a huge nosedive, but they're somehow knocking at the door--standing three games behind the postseason line.

While the Rangers sit in second place in the West, they are also holding the 3rd Wild Card position via tiebreaker over the Cleveland Guardians, who are also 3.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox for the American League Central lead. The Toronto Blue Jays have not been playing like a team who almost won the World Series, but they're just a game and a half behind the line. The Minnesota Twins and the Baltimore Orioles are each two games out. Even the Detroit Tigers have an outside shot. They have losing records, and two teams with losing records are above the postseason line, but the race is still intriguing.

Cut and Dry

While the American League has the chaos, the National League has been very calming. The Central and West races are pretty much a done deal; the Milwaukee Brewers (six game lead) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (nine game lead) have their divisions all sewn up, though the Atlanta Braves' stranglehold in the East is shrinking. Atlanta has a three game lead over the Phillies, and the Wild Card race isn't really much either. The Cubs, Phillies, and Padres hold the three spots at the moment, and the only teams with outside shots are the Diamondbacks and Marlins. The D'Backs have had problems getting back to the postseason following their pennant win in 2023 (I still recall how that late Braves/Mets doubleheader eliminated Zona in 2024), yet with five weeks to go, they're only two games out. The Marlins having an outside shot is excellent, because the postseasons have not been reaching Miami in their franchise history.

Below the Marlins, there's not a lot a realistic chances. The Cardinals are 5.5 games out, but they can't get anything together. The Nationals are better than expected, but still a long ways away. The Pirates are too busy ruining Paul Skenes' great starts, the Reds are a far cry from that team who stole the last spot last year, and the Mets... well... the less said about them, the better.

I can't believe we are so close to this year's Postseason starting! The regular season ends on September 27, and the Postseason begins with the Wild Card Series on September 29. I am so ready for the Postseason, and I'm ready to see who will join this year's 12-team party!