How to Win a Division Without Even Trying

The NFC South is wide open this year. But no one seems to want it.

I'll be honest, I seriously thought the NFC South would get out of their doldrums about three years ago. Usually, in this current divisional format, a division is only bad once in a while. Emphasis on once. Remember: at one point, the NFC West was bad. The NFC South started going south (no pun intended) at around 2022. It's 2026, and the division's getting worse. The NFC South is the only one of the current eight division to see a sub-.500 winner more than once. Both times, it was the Panthers--going 7-8-1 in 2014, and 8-9 last year.

This year, the division winner, whoever it is, could end up with eight wins, if they're lucky.

Now here's the thing: I like these trainwreck divisions, because it's always interesting seeing a team sputter and wheeze their way to a division title. Of course, purists tend to complain about such things, saying that sub-.500 teams shouldn't be in the playoffs. This is because that such teams not only reach the playoffs, they start the playoffs at home, usually against a Wild Card team who won about 10 or 11 games. To that, I always put the blame on the Wild Card teams. If they wanted to have home field, they should have won their divisions. Plain and simple.

The NFC South has completed nine full weeks of action this season, so they are halfway done and nowhere close to .500. Let's take a look at how these teams are faring so far:

Carolina Panthers (3-5)

The Carolina Panthers have a terrible defense and have been blown out twice at home. They've also lost three straight games, yet here they are in first place in the NFC South. Carolina's Week 9 saw them at home against the Denver Broncos, and it was a back and forth affair that saw them come up short, 26-21, dropping them to 1-3 on their home field. This was their first game following the team's firing of their defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, as their defensive struggles included giving up a combined 102 points in their two biggest losses of this season.

The Panthers had their bye week during Week 5, so they are in it for the long run the rest of the way. Their next five games: @ NO, BAL, @ TB (MNF), @ MIN, and NO. That's pretty iffy. They should be the Lamar-less Ravens, but that's the only certainly. Division games in the NFC South are immensely unpredictable.

New Orleans Saints (3-5)

I still remember being told to "watch out for the Saints," because they could win the division. They were right; they could, but only because of how bad it is. They did look good in their first two games--an overtime loss to the Lions, and then going to Baltimore and beating Lamar Jackson! That's big! Unfortunately, the Saints didn't really capitalize from this, as they lost three straight following that big win, but all it took to get back in this division race was winning two of their last three. This included a nail-biting 23-22 overtime win over the Cleveland Browns; serving as the only NFC South team to win this week.

The game against Cleveland was their first following their bye, and they sit tied for first place in the division, though they are in second place due to Carolina having a better division record. Next five games: CAR, @ CHI, @ CIN, GB, @ CAR. Amazing that the Saints have five division games left, so that gives them plenty of chances to make a dent in the South.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)

The last time I mentioned the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a group story, it was about their 0-4 start. They were the only NFC team at 0-4, which is normally curtains in the NFL, but I also said that the Bucs had a chance because of the division they're in. I also said they should win three of their next five games and be back in it. That's exactly what happened. They actually entered Sunday Night Football as winners of three of their last four, and they nearly took this one in Chicago. Despite having five takeaways, the Bucs still fell short thanks to a last second Bears field goal.

Even so, that's three out of five, and their two losses in that stretch were close ones. Tampa Bay's bye week is next week, but after that: @ DET, CAR (MNF), LAC, @ BAL, NO. Considering that they're 2-0 in division play, and one of those wins was a road blowout win in Charlotte, I wouldn't be shocked if TB wins four of those five games. They could become only the second team to start 0-4 and reach the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

The Falcons are halfway into their 10th season following 28-3, and they are still quite the odd team. They started 2-2, but since then, they've lost four of their last five. It gets stranger. The one win in the skid: against the Niners. Yeah. The Falcons serve as the lone team who beat the Niners this year, yet here they are, at 3-6, and still finding embarrassing ways to lose. A week after beating the Niners, they were shut out, 16-0, by a Buccaneers team who had no completions. Their latest loss was to the Cincinnati Bengals; a 34-17 defeat in the Spanish capital of Madrid.

Despite it all, the Falcons (who are only in last place via H2H) still have a realistic shot. They host Kansas City next week, but following their bye: @ MIN, DET, @ CLE, @ WSH. It should be very interesting to see how they fare.

The NFC South is a mess, but it's an entertaining mess. Only one team will emerge from this, and chances are, that team will have lost more games than they win. But the road to get to that point will be full of intrigue and chaos, that is a fact!