Crowded (Week 15)

It never fails. Every December features an NFL playoff race that is just captivating, entertaining, thrilling, and yes, mind-boggling. As it often does, it gets tighter as the weeks run out, but this year has been just insane. The results of Week 14 have seen one team lock in a spot in the 2023 playoffs, but the remaining 13 spots have nearly the whole league still alive and very close in record, for the most part.

Without further ado, here's the picture entering Week 15:

In the American Football Conference, the Baltimore Ravens stand alone as the #1 team at 10-3, and that is because of the Miami Dolphins dropping to 9-4 with their Monday Night loss. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars both dropped to 8-5, with KC's head-to-head win over the Jags putting them at #3, while Jacksonville sits at #4.

Regarding the Wild Cards, it's crazy. The Cleveland Browns hold the #5 spot at 8-5, and I think they're going to get in. I see no way that they mess this up. As for what's below Cleveland, well, it's madness. In the words of LeBron James, "Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five...," six teams at 7-6. This was the result of the Steelers losing the Thursday game, the Colts losing to the Bengals, the Texans being upset by the Jets, and the Broncos and Bills winning. So who is on top of the 7-6 logjam? None other than the hard luck Steelers. Pittsburgh's #6, Indy's #7, and the rest are behind the line by very little. The rest of the field consists of four 5-8 teams who have little to no shot: Chargers, Raiders, Jets, and Titans.

The National Football Conference has a new #1 team: the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners improved to 10-3 and locked in a playoff spot, the first team to do so this season. The Dallas Cowboys have the same record, along with the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Niners' head-to-head win over Dallas placed them at #1, while Dallas is at #2 due to having a better divisional record than Philly. The Detroit Lions dropped to 9-4 and remain at #3, while the 6-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the current holders of the #4 spot.

The Eagles are 10-3, but the loss to Dallas dropped them from #1 to #5 in the conference. The Minnesota Vikings remain at #6, and it's followed by a five-team 6-7 cluster. And guess who's on top of that cluster? That's right: the Green Bay Packers. Tiebreakers have helped the Packers stay above the playoff line above the Los Angeles Rams, the Seattle Seahawks, the Atlanta Falcons, and the New Orleans Saints. God bless this messed up NFC. As a result of all of this, the New York Giants and the Chicago Bears find themselves within close range of the playoff line at 5-8. Good grief; the Bears could enter the playoffs with the #1 overall pick!

As mentioned before, the Niners clinched a spot in the playoffs, and in Week 15, four more teams can join them:

The Baltimore Ravens look like they have a very strong chance of locking up the #1 seed in the AFC. There's four weeks left, which is still a lot of time, but even so, they are clearly in the driver's seat. First off, they have to get in the playoffs, and they have so many ways to get in. Twenty, to be exact. Even so, it's simple. The first nine scenarios involve a win and any two of the six 7-6 teams losing or tying. The remaining 11 involve a tie and either two, three, or four of the 7-6 teams losing or tying. It's a crazy mess, but it should be cleared up in the following weeks. The Ravens will be in Jacksonville this week, and that'll air on Sunday Night Football.

With the way the Eagles were playing, nobody thought that the San Francisco 49ers would even sniff the #1 spot, yet here they are atop the NFC. The Niners locked in a playoff spot with the Packers' Monday Night loss, and they can wrap up the NFC West this week as well. A win or tie or a Rams loss or tie will get it done. The Niners are in Arizona to face off against the lowly, lowly Cardinals, while the Rams will host the Commanders. Both games are in Sunday's late window.

The Dallas Cowboys now sit on top of the NFC East, but they did fail to clinch a playoff spot last week. It's not their fault, they did win their game, which does make their scenario simpler. They have 14 ways to get in, with all but one including them backing in. The other 13 scenarios are quite long and complicated, but the main one is simple: a win or tie puts them in. That's it. It's always nice to control your own destiny, isn't it? The Cowboys will be in Buffalo to face the Bills, which is on Sunday's late window.

It's been seven years since the Detroit Lions last made the playoffs. It's been 32 years since they last won a playoff game. The Lions had expectations after their amazing 2022 season, and they are meeting them so far. While Week 14 did see them upset by the Chicago Bears, Week 15 will see the Lions have a chance to end their playoff drought. They have 13 ways to get in, and six of them involve a win and two or three of the 6-7 teams (Packers, Rams, Seahawks, Saints, Falcons, and even the 1st place Bucs) failing to win. The other seven involve a tie and three or four of the 6-7 teams failing to win. The Lions host the Broncos; one of the three Saturday games this week.

The Eagles have lost back-to-back games after starting 10-1, and worse, the losses came against the 49ers and the Cowboys. This is the third straight week that Philly has a chance to lock in a playoff spot, and in spite of their brief skid, the Eagles do control their own destiny. A win or tie puts them in. There are eight other scenarios that involve some of the 6-7 teams losing, and even a few that involve the Niners and Lions winning. The Eagles face off against one of the 6-7 teams, the Seahawks, on Monday Night Football.

So that's that for the playoff picture and the scenarios entering Week 15, which is a pivotal week: it's the last NFL week before the holidays, where time starts to run out. We should see the logjams become less stuffy during Week 15, as well as the playoff picture becoming much more clear and populated.