American League West Check-In: The First Half (7/17/2026)

With the All-Star Game behind us, the second half of the 2026 MLB season will begin tonight. That means teams are vying to win their respective divisions and clinching Wild Card berths. As far as who will win the American League West title: it'll come down to the wire. In this story, I'll go over how each team from this division fared since my last update by highlighting their records as of June 9, their current overall record, where they stand in the division and Wild Card races, and their schedules for the remainder of July and the entire month of August. Plus, I'll be using Fangraphs to see what the chances are of a team winning the division or clinching a Wild Card spot.

Rangers (49-47)

The AL West pendulum has shifted yet again. It's been an up and down first half for the Rangers, who are currently the new division leaders by a game and half over the next team I'll discuss in a bit. Since the last update on June 9, their record is 17-14. Nearly six months ago, FanGraphs gave the Rangers a paltry 18% chance of clinching a Wild Card berth. For the remainder of July and the entirety of August, their schedule is as follows:

@ATL (3), vs CWS (3), vs SEA (4), @TB (3), @HOU (3), vs SF (3), vs BAL (3), @LAA (4), @ATH (3), vs WAS (3), vs LAA (3), @CWS (3), and @MIL (3)

*Please note that the parentheses represent the number of games in each series

Around the All-Star break last year, the Rangers were under .500 but were in the Wild Card chase for a while during the second half of the season by as much as two games behind other teams for the final spot. However, they crumbled under pressure and ended that season on a disastrous note, finishing at .500, missed the Postseason for the second consecutive year, which led to Bruce Bochy being fired after three seasons as manager. Under first season manager Skip Schumaker, the Rangers will attempt to avoid missing being in October for the third year in a row and win the American League West title for the first time since 2016. Judging by their schedule I just went over, it's going to be a difficult challenge, but it's doable. No lead in a division is safe in Major League Baseball, so now is not the time for the Rangers to let their guards down. One criticism I have with two pitchers in the Rangers rotation is that both Kumar Rocker and MacKenzie Gore give up runs too early in games. Sure, they'll have outings where they'll perform well. However, the both of them need to cut down on the earned runs, because being consistent is key. Relying solely on Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom to bail the team out every time they're desperate of a win in a series isn't going to cut it. The entire rotation has to be in sync, as opposed to having two pitchers carrying all the weight. According to FanGraphs, they have a 40.5% chance of winning the division.

Mariners (48-49)

The defending American League West champions are currently a game and a half behind the Rangers in the division. Being under. 500 is an unusual situation to see the Mariners in, but last year's AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh isn't the same player he was during his 2025 immaculate record-breaking season. I see him finishing the season at least under 25 home runs. Since my last update, the Mariners are 14-17. They currently hold the final Wild Card spot over the Twins, who also has a record of 48-49. According to FanGraphs, they have a 21.6% chance of clinching a Wild Card berth and a 48.8% chance of winning the division. Their schedule for the rest of July and entirety of August are as follows:

vs SF (3), vs CIN (3), @TEX (4), @LAD (3), vs MIN (3), vs DET (3), vs TB (3), @NYY (3), @HOU (3), @MIL (3), vs CHC (3), vs PHI (3), and @TOR (3)

Holding on to the final Wild Card spot isn't going to be easy for the Mariners, but they're aiming to win the division for the second consecutive year. Hopefully, Cal Raleigh will get back to his normal self again.

Astros (47-51)

The lowly Astros are third in the division, three games behind their rivals, the Rangers. Since June 8, their record is 17-14. They're a game and a half behind the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot. Their record since June 8 looks modest, but since losing Carlos Correa for the rest of the season due to an injury, they've struggled. They're not getting any younger and that's not me throwing shade. With Alex Bregman currently with the Cubs and Justin Verlander planning to retire at season's end, there's no way to tell if they'll overcome their upcoming grueling schedule. FanGraphs have them at a 14.5% chance of clinching a Wild Card berth and a disappointing 10.3% chance of winning the AL West. The Astros are used to being in the Postseason. These odds don't look very promising. For the rest of July and entirety of August, their schedule are as follows:

vs BAL, (3), vs MIA (3), @CWS (3), @LAA (3), vs TEX (3), vs TOR (3), @SD (3), @SF (3), vs SEA (3), vs LAA, vs ATH, @NYY (3), and @NYM (3)

Two of the American League teams on their schedule during this span after the All-Star break are against current division leaders. The Astros as a whole have been showing signs of regression. They're not the Astros of the old anymore. They have to know when they're no longer the team that they were in previous years.

Athletics (41-55)

Before the season began, I had the A's clinching a Wild Card spot. Now, they're fourth in the division, eight games back. Plus, they're six and a half games behind the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot. They're a young team and Nick Kurtz definitely have a great future with the Athletics. They won't move into their new ballpark in Las Vegas until the 2028 season. Being so many games behind in both the AL West and Wild Card chase are difficult positions for them to be in, but they'll have to garner a plethora of winning streaks and series wins to overcome those challenges.

Angels (38-59)

Finally, let's talk about the Angels. They're last in the division and 10 games behind the Rangers. It's all but likely they'll miss the Postseason for the 13th consecutive year. The Angels last won the division in 2014. It doesn't feel like that was a long time ago, but this team seems to fall apart every season. The one player I feel sorry for is Mike Trout. Honestly, I feel sad for him. He's been with the Angels for the entirety of his career. He's been the heart and soul of that franchise, but besides the fact of him struggling to stay healthy, Arte Moreno is holding him back. He still refuses to sell the team, and I can imagine the yearly frustration of Angels fans. The trade deadline is at the end of this month and if Mike Trout wants to end his career on a positive note, I would love for him to break his no-trade clause and join the Philadelphia Phillies. I would love to see him win a World Series title. He's from Pennsylvania, so that would be awesome to see him alongside Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. They would be unstoppable and their bats red hot. However, the question is if he was willing to do this, which players would the Angels and Phillies are willing to give up? Mike Trout is such a great player to watch, but he's not the same person he was over a decade ago. He has a great personality and liked by everyone. I do see him as a hitting coach for the Angels at some point after his career is over. There's a 50/50 chance he'll be a Baseball Hall of Famer years from now. When Trout will finally retire is unknown, but until Arte Moreno finally wakes up and sell the team, the Angels will perform poorly for the foreseeable future.

The odds I've shared from FanGraphs are as of July 12, 2026. Please keep in mind that those odds do change daily. I only highlighted three teams and displayed their schedules and odds to making it to October, because mentioning the A's and Angels schedules, plus their odds of making it to the Postseason are pointless.

As I've stated in my first American League West check-in story, the chase for the division crown was a three-way race. It still is and this time, it's the Rangers, Mariners, and Astros. These three teams will have their work cut out for them in the final two months of the season. It'll be interesting how well they'll perform in their respective games we just went over.

I'll post another update on September 1, so please be on the lookout for that story right here on Vocal.

FanGraphs Playoff Odds Graphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs?lg=al&div=w&stat=div&proj=fg