A Stocking Stuffer of Playoff Scenarios (Week 16)

Week 15 was absolutely chaotic, but we fans haven't seen anything yet! Three weeks remain in the NFL season, and we are now in the holiday stage, and that's where so much can happen. In the case of Week 16, it's the NFL's Christmas Week, and in the spirit of giving, a lot of playoff spots can be given out, while other teams could end up with coal in their stockings. As the iconic Gladys Knight once sang, "Let's get down to the real nitty-gritty."

In the AFC, the conference's two playoff bound teams, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, remain tied atop the standings at 11-3, with Buffalo having the tiebreaker. A big shift took place in the AFC standings on Week 15, as the Cincinnati Bengals took over the AFC North lead, and now hold the #3 position at 10-6. Remaining at #4, the Tennessee Titans, who now lead the AFC South at 7-7, meaning that a) the South winner will most likely be the #4 seed, and b) no South team (in either conference) has a winning record.

The Baltimore Ravens were knocked down to the #5 seed, which is the top Wild Card position, at 9-5. The Los Angeles Chargers and the Miami Dolphins move above the playoff line at 8-6, with the Chargers being #6 due to their recent win over the Dolphins. The teams capitalized on the losses from the New England Patriots and the New York Jets, who both dropped to 7-7. The rising Jacksonville Jaguars improved to 6-8, as did the Las Vegas Raiders, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Cleveland Browns. The Indianapolis Colts are 4-9-1 and are only alive because of the division; they are eliminated from the Wild Card race.

In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles lead the conference at 13-1, while the Minnesota Vikings (aka "The Comeback Kings") improved to 11-3 and locked in the NFC North. The San Francisco 49ers also locked in their own division and improved to 10-4, but as for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers...oh boy. The Bucs' loss dropped them to 6-8, but they still lead the NFC South, which continues to be an absolutely beautiful disaster.

In the Wild Card standings, the playoff bound Dallas Cowboys are 10-4 after their overtime loss, and as for the New York Giants and the Washington Commanders, the former improved to 8-5-1 with their win over the latter, who dropped to 7-6-1. Washington's loss makes the race just a bit closer, as the Seattle Seahawks and the Detroit Lions are close behind at 7-7, while the Green Bay Packers have an outside shot at 6-8. Similar to last week, the rest of the NFC South (tied at 5-9) remains alive for the obvious reason, but mathematically, they also remain alive for a Wild Card spot.

So that's the playoff picture, and the scenarios are quite chaotic. Four teams can clinch playoff spots, two divisions can be clinched, a top seed could be locked up, and on the negative end, eight teams can be eliminated this week. Here we go:

The Buffalo Bills' last second victory over the Miami Dolphins not only put them in the playoffs, it also placed them in the driver's seat for the AFC East. The Bills can now capture their third straight AFC East crown with a win or tie, or if the Miami Dolphins lose or tie. Buffalo will be in the Windy City facing the Chicago Bears on Christmas Eve, so this should be easy pickings for them. In the shocking event that the Bills do come up short, they'll have to wait for Christmas Day and pull for the Packers to pull it off in Miami. The Bills also control their own destiny as far as the #1 seed is concerned; if they keep winning, they'll get it.

For the Cincinnati Bengals, it's Year Three of the Joe Burrow era, and even though it was shaky at first, it's building up at the right time. As I said after Super Bowl LVI, the days of the old "Bungles" are over. They are no longer the joke of the AFC North; they are a serious threat. The Bengals came back to beat the Bucs in Week 15, and as a result, they took over the AFC North lead. Cincy's on tap to repeat as AFC North Champions, but before that, they have to get into the big dance. A win or tie this week will get it done, or a Jets loss or tie will get it done. The Jets host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, meaning that the Bengals could get into the playoffs before they take the field in Foxboro on Christmas Eve. If the Bengals do win, they can lock up the division as early as Week 17.

I still remember how last season ended for the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens entered the latter one-third of last season at 8-3, which was #1 in the entire conference, but they would lose their final six games and end up eliminated. The skid was due to the Ravens being without Lamar Jackson, and here it is, a year later, and Lamar is out again. However, the Ravens did manage to get to nine wins this time, and this week, they can get into the playoffs. That's where this gets crazy. The Ravens have ten, count 'em, ten different clinching scenarios! I'll try to keep it simple. The first three involve the Ravens winning and two of these three teams failing to win: Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins. Six others involve a Ravens tie, and three of the six include a Chargers win. Only one scenario involves them backing in, but even that's a crazy one. Scenario #10 states that even if the Ravens lose, they can get in if the Jets and Patriots both lose, the Chargers win, and the Raiders, Browns, and Titans fail to win. Wow! The Ravens host the Falcons on Christmas Eve, though their scenario begins with Thursday Night Football.

Another team who got snake-bit at the wrong time last season was the Los Angeles Chargers. We all still remember that chaotic regular season finale between the Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders; the winner was in, the loser was out, and both tied teams could get in. The game went the full seventy minutes and ended with a Raiders field goal, ending the Chargers' season. Though the game was their final undoing, it was a few weeks in the making, as they lost key games entering that do-or-die matchup. This year, the Chargers have improved and are winning those key games that they would have lost last year, and as a result, they can join the playoff party this week. The Bolts have only three scenarios, with all of them involving a win and a Raiders loss or tie. In Scenario #1, the Chargers will also losses from the Jets and Patriots. In Scenario #2, they will also need losses from the Jets and Dolphins and a Patriots tie. In Scenario #3, they'll also need losses from the Dolphins and Patriots and a Jets tie. They will also have to be patient, as the Chargers will end Week 16 on Monday Night Football in Indianapolis.

The Philadelphia Eagles' dream season has been amazing so far, and this week could see them lock up everything with two weeks left. The Eagles will be in Arlington to face off against the Dallas Cowboys, and if they win, then they get not only the NFC East, but the #1 seed in the conference. If they tie, they'll get the division, but they will need the Minnesota Vikings to lose or tie for Philly to get the #1 seed. However, there's just one problem the team's facing: Jalen Hurts is injured. A shoulder injury could sideline Hurts for the game against Dallas, but if the Eagles do somehow win this with Gardner Minshew starting, then Hurts could get three weeks (including the bye) to rest and properly recuperate for the Divisional Playoff.

The New York Giants are back on track with their win over the Washington Commanders; not only did they move up in the standings, they also clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker over Washington. It's been quite an amazing year for the Giants, and after so many disastrous seasons, the Giants can return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Giants need a win and two of the three following teams to lose: Commanders, Seahawks, and Lions. However, the Giants face the Vikings this week...on the road. So that's a bit of an uphill climb for the G-Men, especially since the Vikings are coming off that big win, and they still have some semblance of a puncher's chance at getting the #1 seed. The aforementioned three other teams are also on the road this week; the Commanders are in Santa Clara, the Hawks head to KC, and the Lions are off to Charlotte.

As I mentioned earlier, eight teams (that's an even one-quarter of the league) can be eliminated this week. Five of them are in the AFC, and out of the five, three of them have the dreaded "lose and out" scenario. The three teams with that scenario: the Colts, the Steelers, and the Browns. Pittsburgh and Cleveland each have a lot of different elimination scenarios, with a bunch of them suggesting that even a win may not save them, but the main one is "lose and out." For the Colts, it's much worse. Their next loss or their next tie will end their season, and it could also end if either the Titans or Jaguars fail to lose, with the latter team's involvement meaning that the Colts' season could end as early as Thursday Night Football. The Raiders and the slumping Jets also face elimination, but neither have the "lose and out" scenario. The other three teams who can be eliminated are all in the NFC: the Saints, the Falcons, and yes, the Packers. For the Saints, a loss and Bucs win ends their season, while the Packers are out with a loss and a Commanders win. The Falcons have four different elimination scenarios, with all of them involving a loss and a combination of wins or ties from some or all of their division foes.

Week 16 will be immensely plentiful to say the least. As a Packers fan, I am confident that the team should make it to Week 17, as I can't see Washington beating the Niners. Other than that, Week 16 will be deliciously fruitful from beginning (TNF) to end (MNF).

Happy Holidays!