A Look at the Vast Decline of the NFC South

I said this once before; I do love "trainwreck divisions," because they get all the interest and attention. This on-and-off trend started in 2010, when the NFC West was so terrible that the Seattle Seahawks ended up finishing first with a 7-9 record. Since then, we have seen our share of mediocre/subpar division champions over the years. Even the NFC North fell victim to this in 2013. I remember that year vividly; Aaron Rodgers missed several weeks due to injury, yet while the Green Bay Packers did regress, so did the rest of the division. Rodgers returned on the final week to defeat the Chicago Bears, resulting in the Packers winning the division at 8-7-1.

Of course, we all remember 2020, when the NFC East took that mantle again (2011 saw the New York Giants finish first at 9-7). The division took a huge nose dive and ended with the Washington Football Team winning the East at 7-9. Even crazier, we were very close to seeing the Giants win the division at 6-10. Now, I've heard all of the outrage over the years:

"Sub-.500 teams shouldn't make the playoffs."

"Sub-.500 teams shouldn't have a home playoff game."

And my favorite: "The entire division should be eliminated."

Look, if you don't want teams with losing records winning the division, then it's really up to the other teams in said division to be better. Plain and simple. So which division is taking the mantle this year? Shockingly, it's the NFC South, and I say "shockingly" for the obvious reason: it's the one with Tom Brady in it. The NFC is at a very weak point this year, but the biggest Achilles' heel is the NFC South. With the 2022 season two-thirds out of the way, no one in the South has a winning record. It was threatening to end up this way before, but it looked like it would be avoided when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won a few games. However, with the loss to the Cleveland Browns (leave it to Brady to lose to a team Rodgers would easily blow out), every team in the division has a losing record. This makes for quite an interesting race entering the final one-third of the season.

Also as a result, a case can be made for any of the four teams to finish atop the South. Let's analyze them, shall we?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Bucs are the lucky team who sits atop the den of iniquity known as the 2022 NFC South. This has been an interesting season for the Brady Bucs. Year One saw them reach the mountaintop, Year Two saw them ousted in the Divisional Playoff in what was supposed to be Brady's farewell. However, Brady decided to give this football thing another year, and well...it's not going too well. Let's get one thing straight: first place is first place. But this?! I don't think anyone saw this coming. At least Brady finally exorcised the New Orleans demon (as I figured he would), but that is one of very few positives for this Bucs season.

It was looking like things would improve with back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, but then, they lost in overtime to the Cleveland Browns. That's not a derailment, but it's bad. The OT loss was TB's sixth in their last nine games, but even with all of that, they still lead the division at 5-6.

The Bucs are the only NFC South team who has had their bye. They have six games left in the final six weeks, and they are as follows: vs NO (MNF), @ SF, vs CIN, @ ARI (SNF at the moment), vs CAR, and @ ATL. A somewhat cushy home stretch, though the Niners and Bengals could be a hindrance. More on the NFC South implications for Week 18 later.

Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

It's been six seasons since "28-3," and the Atlanta Falcons still haven't fully recovered from that embarrassing Super Bowl loss. However, we are seeing the Falcons capitalize on the overall failings of the NFC South, and at one point, they actually led the division after a thrilling overtime win over the rival Carolina Panthers. However, Atlanta has lost three of their last four games since then, including losing the rematch against Carolina, but despite all of this, the Falcons are withing range of a division title at 5-7.

The Falcons do have one glaring problem: they can't seen to defeat their divisional foes. Atlanta is 1-3 against the NFC South this season, with the OT win over Carolina being the one positive in that record. It would have been 2-2 if it wasn't for a very soft Roughing the Passer call, but even so, this Falcons team, against all odds, has a shot at a postseason berth, as well as a home playoff game.

Regarding the Falcons' remaining schedule, they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Week 13, and then they have a bye on the following week. As for their final four games: @ NO, @ BAL, vs ARI, and vs TB. As it stands, Atlanta only has one game left against a team with a winning record, so they have quite an easy schedule ahead of them.

Carolina Panthers (4-8)

It's really funny how the Carolina Panthers' 2022 season is going. After a 1-4 start, the Panthers fire Matt Rhule as head coach, allowing Steve Wilks to take over as the interim coach. After losing to the Los Angeles Rams, the Panthers actually traded their star running back (as well as their only means of offense), Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers, who gave Rhule his last loss as head coach. So based on that, it's clear that the Panthers were starting over and they knew that playoffs were out of the picture, right?

Well, right...except for one thing: the NFC South decided to collapse upon itself. As a result, the team who dealt their best RB and was on the verge of an actual tank? They have a shot. A good one. Their first game in the post-CMC era saw them blast the Buccaneers (of all teams), and since the trade, the Panthers are 3-3. Even though Carolina sits at 4-8, their division record is impressive--3-1 against their division foes, a win against each of their rivals. Based on that, the Panthers really have the best chance to win the division, but we will see how the final weeks go for them.

The Panthers are actually one of two teams who have next week off, but after that: @ SEA, vs PIT, vs DET, and back-to-back road division games in Tampa Bay and New Orleans, the latter taking place in Week 18. Another cushy remaining schedule, though those two road games could be challenging.

New Orleans Saints (4-8)

The New Orleans Saints' 2021 season definitely stood out. It was their first after Drew Brees' retirement, and while they did struggle, they did pick up three wins over Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, finished 9-8, and still came very close to a playoff spot. However, the Saints' 2022 season is their first without longtime coach Sean Payton, and it's not a good one, which proves how unimportant Brees was to the team. The Saints have struggled badly, mainly due to injuries, but still, it's a terrible struggle. They are 4-8 and tied with the Carolina Panthers, but due to Carolina's 3-1 division record, as well as one of their wins coming against New Orleans, the Saints enter the final one-third of the season at the very bottom of the NFC South.

Though the Saints do have four wins, two of them were against 2021 playoff teams, with one of them coming against the defending champion Los Angeles Rams. As for division play, the Saints started their campaign with three straight division games; defeating the Falcons but losing to the Buccaneers and Panthers, resulting in a 1-2 division record at this point. Despite all of this, the Saints, like the other three teams, have a good shot at taking the South.

The Saints will go on the road to face the Bucs on Monday Night Football next week, and then they'll go on their bye. Following the bye: vs ATL, @ CLE, @ PHI, and vs CAR. This is a bit of a tough schedule for the Saints, with the main problem being Week 17--heading to Philadelphia. New Orleans need quite a bit to happen to have a good chance at the division.

So with the division being in this state, I have to talk about the final week: Week 18. As we all know, Week 18's schedule is all division games, just like Week 17 was from 2010-2020, back when the schedule was 17 weeks. In addition, the Sunday Night Football finale is usually a very important winner-take-all game for either a playoff spot or a division title, and regarding the NFC South, the Week 18 schedule shows the Falcons hosting the Bucs, while the Saints host the Panthers. There is a good chance that one of those two games could be for the division, and if that is the case, one of the two games will get the SNF spotlight to end the regular season, while the other will most likely be placed in the early slot (1PM Eastern). However, if more than two teams are alive for the division, then it could be a toss-up regarding which game hits NBC, while the other came could be on the late slot (4:25PM Eastern). In any event, the final six weeks should be very interesting for the NFC South, even in its current state.