5 Major Questions for the Canadiens this Offseason

With just a couple of weeks left in the NHL season, the Canadiens are well on their way to a second consecutive last place finish in the Atlantic Division, with a record of 30 wins, 38 losses (and 6 OT losses) for 66 points in 75 games (a 72-point pace). However, all hope is not lost. Last season, the Habs finished with an abysmal 55 points. This is already a 17 point improvement compared to last season. It will be an interesting offseason to say the least. Will Kent Hughes continue the rebuild by trading veteran players for prospects and draft picks? Or will he make a splash in free agency or on the trade market to push for a playoff spot next season?

Looking towards the offseason, the Canadiens will have two lottery picks in the top half of the draft, allowing them to either draft two very solid prospects, or leverage one of these picks for an established player. Assuming Carey Price’s contract is put into LTIR, the Canadiens should have nearly $20 million in cap space going into next season.

What Will Caufield’s Contract Look Like?

Cole Caufield will be a restricted free agent this Summer (without arbitration rights). He is coming off his rookie contract, making just under $900K per year and will be expecting a big raise. A few years ago, I would have predicted a bridge deal for Caufield. This is because despite all the talent he has shown, he has yet to prove that he can keep scoring consistently for an entire season. However, the new trend in the NHL is to lock up your young star players to 8-year contracts, and I expect the same for Caufield.

In his rookie season in 2021-22, Caufield was the odds-on favorite to win the Calder trophy. This was because of that solid playoff performance the previous season, where he scored 4 goals (12 points) in 20 games helping the Habs reach the Cup finals. However, Caufield struggled under head coach Dominique Ducharme scoring just 1 goal (with 7 assists) in his first 30 games. He did finish the season on fire with 22 goals (and 13 assists) for 35 points in the remaining 37 games.

This past season, Caufield pick up where he left off – with 26 goals (and 10 assists) in 46 games before his season-ending shoulder injury. Had Caufield not struggled at the start of last season, or had his season not been cut short due to injury, I would have expected him to sign a contract exceeding Suzuki’s $63 million over 8 years due to the higher value placed on pure goal scorers. However, because of these factors, I expect a Toews-Kane situation where Caufield will sign an identical contract to Suzuki.

Will the Habs Trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois?

The rumor mill has been hot on this topic for a while. Dubois has made it clear that he wants to play for Montreal, and he has shown no interest in signing any contract extension with the Winnipeg Jets. Now recently on 32 Thoughts the Podcast, NHL Insider Elliott Friedman revealed that he is 95% certain Dubois will end up with the Habs. Friedman also reported that there have been serious trade talks between the two sides. So the question is, will the Habs trade for Dubois, sign him as a free agent in 2024 or should Montreal avoid acquiring him at all.

Pierre-Luc Dubois was drafted 3rd overall in 2016 by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Now playing for the Winnipeg Jets, Dubois has 127 goals (297 points) in 428 NHL games. Dubois has developed into a 60-point per season player and would be a solid addition to any NHL team.

Montreal can use another elite center. They do currently have Nick Suzuki, who is one year younger, and has also become a 60-point per season player in his own right. However, having a solid one-two punch down the middle is essential for any team wanting to make a deep playoff run - and the Habs are missing a good center for their second line. They tried Dvorak, but he has been underperforming over the past two seasons. Last Summer, the Habs traded for Monahan, with some hope he could bounce back to his old ways and become the number two middle man – but injuries have prevented that from happening. Kirby Dach has played well, but he will need to live up to his draft potential (3rd overall in 2019) if the Habs hope he can play on the second line. Therefore, if the Habs acquired Dubois, he would slot in perfectly as the second line centreman.

So will the Habs trade for him this Summer? Well it depends on the price. On paper, trading for Dubois, a very good and young centreman (he will be 25 years old this Summer), usually comes with a steep price – a high end first rounder, a good 3rd line centreman, and a solid prospect. However, due to the Jets' desire to get something in return for Dubois, before he can walk to free agency in 2024, the Jets should be willing to trade him to Montreal at a discount. Perhaps Dvorak, a 2024 second round pick and mid-tier prospect would be enough.

I still think that this would be too steep of a price to pay for one more season of Dubois. Although I expect the Habs to improve next season, they likely won’t be in playoff contention. Using draft picks or prospects to acquire Dubois won’t help with the rebuild. Kent Hughes would be better off waiting for 2024 to sign him in free agency.

Will Hughes trade long-time Habs leader Brendan Gallagher?

Brendan Gallagher is the longest serving Habs player (save for Price who has basically retired). He was the diamond in the rough, taken in the 5th round (147 overall) of the 2010 draft. With 201 goals (397 points) in 668 games played, including two 30-goal seasons, it’s safe to say that he was a very successful draft pick. However, when Gallagher signed his big 6-year extension ($39 million) taking him into his mid thirties, we knew this was Bergevin paying for past performance. And unfortunately, that is precisely the case.

Unfortunately, Gallagher has struggled over the past couple of seasons, with just 7 goals in 2021-22 and only 7 goals so far this year. This contract has already aged poorly. Trading Gallagher, a leader in the locker room would be tough. Both because of a lack of suitors willing to acquire his contract, but also because of his leadership he can provide for the next generation of Habs players. Therefore, I doubt Kent Hughes would trade Gallagher this Summer.

Will the Canadiens Re-sign Sean Monahan?

The Montreal Canadiens acquired Sean Monahan and Calgary’s first round pick in the 2024 draft, in a move to create cap relief for the Flames. Monahan had earned his big paycheck – at his peak, he was scoring more than 30 goals per season. However, recent injuries and a lack of production resulted in his contract becoming an albatross for the Flames.

Monahan had a strong start to the season with the Canadiens – 17 points in 25 games. Based on his play, he was likely going to be traded to a contender at the trade deadline, potentially for a first round pick. Unfortunately, a lower body injury has ended his season. Monahan will become an unrestricted free agent this Summer. At this point, he does not hold much value due to his recent production. Therefore, it would be wise for Hughes to sign Monahan at the right value – perhaps a one-year contract with a $2 million base with performance add-ons would be fair value for both Monahan and the Canadiens. With this salary, it is low risk to the Habs, and if it pays off, he can be traded at next years trade deadline.

Will the Habs win the Draft lottery and select Connor Bedard?

Not likely. The Habs only have an 8.5% chance of winning the draft lottery. Kent Hughes should not be banking on adding Connor Bedard to the organization. He should instead focus on developing the young prospects for the Habs, and push for solid playoff performances in future years.