379 Companies Are Waiting. Zero New Applications Came In.

From October 26 to November 1, no new IPO applications were accepted across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges. The Shanghai exchange had gone two months without accepting a new application. The Shenzhen exchange had gone three. Over the same period, 379 companies were under review: 198 on the Beijing Stock Exchange, 77 on ChiNext, 67 on the STAR Market, 20 on the Shanghai Main Board, and 17 on the Shenzhen Main Board.

In October, four companies appeared before IPO review meetings, the lowest monthly figure since June 2025. Seventy-seven companies terminated their review, 45 of them on the Beijing exchange. Third-quarter withdrawals reached their highest level of the year.

The entrance has not closed. The Beijing exchange accounts for 52.2% of the queue and was the only venue still accepting applications after September. But the rhythm in Shanghai and Shenzhen has changed. This is not a dropped gate. It is a narrow door screened by board and by industry.

The markings are specific. Shanghai Xihe Technology was accepted onto the STAR Market on June 30, entered inquiry on July 7, a seven-day gap, and cleared its review meeting on October 14, 106 days from acceptance to approval. Yangtze Memory Technologies Holding was accepted on August 21, entered inquiry on September 3, a gap of nine working days, and sought to raise RMB 33 billion. In the same window, many traditional manufacturing applicants wait months for inquiry. Some sit at “under inquiry” after acceptance with no disclosed progress.

The queue’s industry density is clear. As of July 31, of 435 companies under review, 70 were in computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing, 16.1% of the total. Special-purpose equipment, general-purpose equipment, electrical machinery, and automobile manufacturing added roughly 40%. Including electronic materials, nonferrous metals within new chemical materials, and suppliers to those sectors, the share tied to semiconductors, memory, and AI approaches half.

When nearly half the queue sits in one industrial cluster, the rhythm at the entrance is no longer just an issuance regulation issue. The pricing logic for that cluster in the secondary market is moving on another curve.

Anthropic updated its prospectus in early November. Revenue for the first three quarters was $33.242 billion. Third-quarter revenue was $16.956 billion, up about 12-fold year on year. Quarter-on-quarter growth was about 140% in the first quarter, about 144% in the second, and about 46% in the third.

In the second quarter, Anthropic posted $974 million in GAAP operating profit. In the third quarter it swung to an operating loss of $567 million. Computing and infrastructure spending rose from $5.6 billion to $9.9 billion, lifting its share of quarterly revenue from 48% to 58%. That is roughly $108 million a day flowing to data centers and chip procurement.

The prospectus discloses total computing and infrastructure commitments of about $895.4 billion. Of that, roughly $447.5 billion to $448 billion is expected by the end of 2030, with about $69.8 billion due within 12 months. A substantial portion are minimum payment obligations. They must be settled on schedule regardless of whether model usage meets expectations. In the first half of 2026, computing costs were 54.9% of Anthropic’s total revenue. For every $100 of revenue, more than $54 went to computing bills.

Valuation numbers moved. In late October, Pitchbook cut its target valuation for Anthropic to $1.42 trillion. After the revised prospectus, the range some investors considered fell to $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion. The previous benchmark was about $2 trillion.

The reason is not written in a formal report. The numbers point the way. When a company spends more than $55 on computing for every $100 it earns, and carries nearly $900 billion in rigid commitments, absolute revenue growth is no longer enough. It was profitable in the second quarter and posted an operating loss in the third. That turn came in the same quarter when quarter-on-quarter growth fell from 144% to 46%.

Another external variable is also weakening. In the first quarter of 2026, DRAM contract prices rose 93% to 98% quarter on quarter, and NAND rose 55% to 60%. By the third quarter, DRAM had narrowed to 13% to 18%, and NAND to 10% to 15%. Cumulatively, memory prices are still about 3.1 times their 2025 lows. The rate of increase is decelerating. The steepest price elasticity in this AI data-center memory cycle is over. For the secondary market, the chain from price increase to profit expansion, the easiest chain to extrapolate over the past several quarters, is flattening.

On November 2, a joint meeting of three government departments said the relending facility for share buybacks and increased holdings would become a long-term institutional arrangement, with the rate cut from 1.25% to 1%. On November 3, the third swap facility operation launched. Thirty-one institutions submitted demand over RMB 100 billion. The outstanding swap balance is RMB 105 billion.

The policy direction is explicit. But the 1% relending rate is the cost at which banks borrow from the central bank. Financial institutions add a reasonable markup and increase lending. After the markup, the cost of funds reaching listed companies is above 1%. Buyback and increase-in-holdings loans signed total about RMB 440 billion, with more than RMB 280 billion disbursed. The swap balance is RMB 105 billion. Against the A-share market’s total capitalization and daily turnover, the marginal leverage is limited. These tools address whether low-cost funds exist. They do not answer whether companies and investors will use those funds at current valuations and expectations.

The path around reduction constraints is also specific. On the evening of November 3, Shennong Group announced that controlling shareholder and actual controller He Zuxun and Luo Wanyu had dissolved their marriage. After the equity change, He holds 34.72% and Luo holds 14.88%, worth about RMB 2.5 billion. At the moment the split was completed, the compliance threshold for Luo’s share reductions changed materially. Rules can restrict one path. They cannot exhaust all paths.

External constraints leave little room. CME FedWatch data show the market pricing about a 79% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike in December, and a 57% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by January. The Fed’s October meeting held rates at 3.75% to 4%, with two voting members favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Dallas Fed President Logan said at least two more hikes are needed. With Treasury yields elevated and valuation denominators for long-duration growth stocks under pressure, the external friction facing domestic stabilization policy as it tries to push tech stocks higher through valuation expansion cannot be removed by liquidity injection alone.

Between November 2 and 3, in less than 48 hours, three things happened. The relending rate was cut from 1.25% to 1%. The third swap facility launched, with demand over RMB 100 billion. A divorce announcement from Shennong Group changed the reduction threshold for RMB 2.5 billion in market value.

In the same week, 379 companies were under review. Zero acceptances on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges entered their second and third months. In Anthropic’s prospectus, the third-quarter operating loss was $567 million, computing spending was $9.9 billion, and total commitments were $895.4 billion. The quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM contract prices narrowed from 93% to 98% in the first quarter to 13% to 18% in the third.

On the evening the relending rate fell to 1%, a divorce announcement changed the reduction threshold for RMB 2.5 billion in market value. The two events were less than 24 hours apart.