Why Did Ukraine Launch a New Counteroffensive Against Russia?

Ukraine's Counteroffensive: Slow and Steady Gains Overpowering Russia's Artillery Stronghold

After months of hype and preparation, Ukraine finally launched its long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian invaders in the east. Progress has been slower and more incremental than many hoped. However, Ukraine is steadily grinding down Russia's advantages. This article examines Ukraine's evolving strategy and tactics allowing it to gain ground despite stiff resistance.

High Expectations Dampened in Early Months

Ahead of the counterattack, Ukraine rotated thousands of troops off frontline duty to train extensively with NATO militaries. These newly trained units armed with advanced Western weapons were expected to spearhead major breakthroughs when the offensive kicked off.

However, the first weeks of the counteroffensive did not match these high hopes. Ukraine enforced a total media blackout across the eastern front as the attack commenced. Russia exploited this silence, rapidly spreading disinformation about supposed catastrophic Ukrainian losses on social media and state propaganda outlets.

Although completely fabricated, this narrative undermined Western will to continue supplying arms to Ukraine. After all, what was the point if all the fancy new NATO gear was just being obliterated the moment it crossed the border?

In reality, Ukraine was making reasonable gains given the circumstances. Exact losses are kept secret by Ukraine and its NATO partners for good reason. But it's believed that in the first week, Ukraine lost around 4 of the 85 Leopard 2 main battle tanks donated by Europe. Similarly, a couple dozen of the Bradley infantry fighting vehicles gifted by the US have been knocked out over the summer.

This level of armor attrition is well within expected limits. Moreover, most damaged Western vehicles have been quickly recovered from the battlefield and repaired to return to the fight.

Most importantly, these modern tanks and IFVs fulfilled their primary purpose: safeguarding Ukrainian crews against lethal harm. Photographic evidence shows that even severely damaged Leopards and Bradleys protected their occupants from blasts that would have proven fatal in the vulnerable Soviet-era tanks operated by Russia.

Adapting to Russia's Heavily Fortified Defenses

By spring 2022, Russia had multiple months to extensively fortify defensive lines in occupied Ukrainian territory. Vast networks of trenches, anti-tank ditches, minefields, and pre-sighted artillery guarded key logistics and population centers.

Facing these prepared defenses manned even by poorly trained conscripts, Ukraine's initial attempts at breakthroughs along the line proved very costly. Russia's numerical advantage in artillery also enabled it to relentlessly bombard attack zones.

After weeks of bloody fighting yielded only minor gains, Ukraine transitioned away from a focused offensive strategy. Instead, Ukrainian forces adopted a more conservative posture aimed at slowly grinding down Russia's advantages.

Methodically Neutralizing Russia's Artillery Dominance

Throughout the invasion, Russia's great advantage in long-range artillery has allowed it to devastate Ukrainian positions with relative impunity. At times, Russia possessed an estimated 20:1 advantage in tubes over Ukraine. Even in early 2022, this slackened only to around 8:1 or 6:1 as munition shortages afflicted both sides.

To counter this imbalance, Ukraine held its limited artillery assets in reserve during the counteroffensive phase. Ukrainian batteries patiently waited for their Russian counterparts to reveal firing positions during bombardments.

Once enemy guns opened up, advanced NATO counterbattery radars precisely tracked their origin point. Highly accurate Western 155mm and Excalibur GPS-guided shells then eliminated the enemy batteries with surgical strikes.

This tactic has extracted an extremely heavy toll on Russia's artillery arm. For the first time since the war began, Ukraine has reached near parity with - or even overmatched - Russia's guns along some sectors of the front.

Neutralizing Russia's long-range fire supremacy has been key to preventing utter devastation of Ukraine's attacking forces. Artillery dominates modern combat, and Russia's sole real advantage for most of this war has been its higher volume of lower-quality tubes.

Striking Occupier Logistics and Critical Infrastructure

In tandem with artillery strikes, Ukraine has utilized special forces, partisans, and long-range Western weapons to interdict Russian supply lines and logistics infrastructure in occupied areas.

Precision missile strikes have systematically destroyed ammunition depots, fuel storage, rail links, repair facilities, and bridges along the Russian logistics chain. This methodical campaign has severely complicated Russia's ability to sustain its artillery forces and frontline units.

Russia's military was already teetering from corruption and neglect before the war. With Western sanctions fully in effect, replacing these losses has become extremely challenging.

Preparing for a Decisive Blow Against a Weakened Adversary

Though progress has been slower and more incremental than many hoped, Ukraine has nonetheless degraded Russian forces while steadily building up its own combat power.

More advanced NATO armor like Abrams tanks and Leopard 2A7s are now arriving from North America and Europe. These tip-of-the-spear systems overmatch anything in Russia's roster, especially after the best Soviet-era equipment has been exhaustion against Ukraine's fierce resistance.

Meanwhile, the long-awaited delivery of F-16 fighters, Patriot air defense batteries, and longer-range HIMARS rocket systems will help neutralize Russia's residual edge in the air and allow Ukraine to strike deeper behind enemy lines.

Stockpiles of effective, standardized NATO artillery ammunition are also growing, reducing Ukraine's dependence on obsolete Soviet calibers. This will maximize the effectiveness of Ukraine's own guns and captured Russian systems recycled into service.

If the West maintains a steady flow of hardware resupply and parts, Ukraine will soon field an overwhelmingly qualitatively superior military compared to a weakened, demoralized Russian force drained by six months of brutal losses.

All the pieces are in place for a crushing Ukrainian victory on the battlefield if the collective West can shake off unwarranted fears of Russia's nuclear posturing and commit fully to Ukraine's just cause.

Plenty of Cause for Optimism Despite Slow Initial Progress

To summarize, Ukraine's counteroffensive has certainly not achieved the rapid gains that many supporters hoped for early on. However, by patiently eroding Russia's strengths while consolidating its own military power, Ukraine has put itself in an increasingly favorable position as the war enters a prolonged phase.

There is good reason for optimism even if pundits are impatient with the pace of Ukraine's gains. Russia's window for victory grows smaller by the day as its offensive potential and morale crater while Ukraine leverages the immense industrial capacity of NATO nations.

For Ukraine and its backers, maintaining resolve and judiciously pressing their advantages is key to securing victory without needless sacrifice of lives. Moscow will not concede defeat easily, but its prospects decline steadily.

Of course, the story of the counteroffensive still has many chapters left. But if Ukraine can continue its patient, methodical approach, it may set the stage for reclaiming all occupied territory and even cripple Russia's imperialist ambitions for decades hence. The fruits of Ukraine's courage and NATO's renewed martial strength will be a more peaceful Europe in the years ahead.

📝 SOURCES

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