Why is Russia struggling in the global arena?

Cracks in Putin's Iron Grip: Russia Faces Crisis as Failures Mount

Vladimir Putin has ruled Russia with an iron fist for over two decades. But military humiliations, economic woes, and dissent may finally threaten his authoritarian control. This blog examines the multiplying challenges Putin faces at home and abroad.

Putin's Invasion of Ukraine Backfires

Putin expected a quick victory when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Instead, his military has suffered continual defeats.

In June 2023, Putin made a rare admission of "significant losses." Meanwhile, Ukraine's counteroffensive using Western weapons recaptures territory. Key transport hubs like Melitopol are threatened, which could isolate Russian troops.

Night fighting capabilities and precision rocket artillery allow Ukraine to strike Russian supply lines far behind enemy lines. Outgunned and demoralized, Russia turns to obsolete weapons from North Korea and Iran while its tank exports dry up.

Dissenting Voices Emerge Against Putin's War

Putin suppresses dissent ruthlessly. But failures in Ukraine have provoked criticism even among loyalists.

In June 2023, leading MP Konstantin Zatulin declared Russia had failed all its stated war aims in Ukraine and gained nothing. Outspoken oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin predicts endless losses and either mass executions of generals or civil war in Russia.

Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries publicly humiliated Russia's military leadership before being exiled for growing too powerful. Putin now faces threats from without and within.

Arrest Warrant and War Crimes Haunt Putin

Putin travels internationally at personal legal risk. The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for alleged abduction of Ukrainian children.

South Africa nearly canceled a BRICS summit due to threatened protests if Putin attended. Meanwhile, atrocities against civilians in Bucha and elsewhere expose Putin's personal command of a terror campaign.

Along with blowing up dams and creating ecological disasters, Putin's army faces evidence of systemic war crimes. He awarded medals to killers in Bucha. Putin may go down in history as a criminal whose disasters destroyed Russia.

Sanctions and Blunders Shatter Russian Economy

Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports have cost billions in lost revenue. India and China demand steep discounts while buying less.

Putin's "excess profits" tax on businesses to fund the flailing war effort exacerbates economic woes. Meanwhile, the poorly performing military shows off Russia's outdated technology. Arms sales that buoyed Russia's economy in the past have plummeted.

Humiliated on the battlefield, Russia now depends on China militarily. But China competes directly in the global arms market. Putin has weakened Russia perhaps permanently.

Putin's Catastrophic Miscalculation

Everything Putin has done since February 2022 has backfired disastrously. His ambition to reconstitute the USSR and dominate Ukraine has ruined Russia's global standing.

Sweden and Finland are joining NATO, contrary to Putin's goals. The EU has cut reliance on Russian oil and gas for good. Russia's reputation, economy and population are collapsing as Putin doubles down on failure.

Only terminating the war and removing Putin can avert further catastrophe. Russia faces the prospect of revolution, partition, or being dominated by China. But the hardest challenges are still ahead.

Conclusion: Putin's Downfall?

Putin's iron grip on Russia may be slipping as the country endures one disaster after another. From sabotage to cross-border attacks, challenges are multiplying beyond Putin's control.

While the future remains uncertain, Russia retains massive destructive potential under Putin. But his misrule also threatens the stability and survival of the Russian state. Either renewed repression or regime change may follow.

In reckless pursuit of glory, Putin has brought Russia to the brink of ruin. Whether he persists through tyranny or is removed by rivals, Putin's name will be synonymous with catastrophe. After decades of brutality and failure, change in Russia is inevitable.

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