Who else can stop Russia from invading Ukraine?
Are we preparing for war?
The situation on the border between Ukraine and Russia is deteriorating overnight, and EU, NATO and US member states are trying to prepare for a possible military and economic response to Russia if it attacks Ukraine. In fact, the fears that this is increasingly possible are visible. The American president said that the USA could send more soldiers to Romania and Poland, and the French president announced that his country is also ready to supplement the military forces on the eastern flank and to send soldiers to Romania. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is demanding clear concessions from the West not to take action. Until he gets what he wants, the leader of Moscow ordered the addition of troops from the border with Ukraine.
Following the failure of last week's negotiations in Geneva and Brussels, tensions are rising, and European leaders and President Joe Biden are increasingly convinced of Vladimir Putin's aggressive intentions. Joe Biden said Vladimir Putin would order troops to enter Ukraine because "they have to make a move."
The Ukrainian intelligence services are already talking about 127,000 soldiers present at the border between the two states, increasing in the last days. In addition, Moscow brings fighting equipment by train, from the far west and from Siberia.
"I say 52% -48% in favor of diplomacy. We are not just a crisis of Russia's relations with Ukraine, but a crisis of Russia's relations with the West. And the big stake in this battle is not just Ukraine, but Europe and the security order in Europe. That is, what kind of rules we will have in terms of security from now on. There are those who are 30 years old and who have been accepted by the Russians or new rules are accepted. This is where we are. They kicked the door twice, now they are trying to tear down our house and here I am referring to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the Baltic countries, Finland, Sweden ", explains Iulian Fota, director of the Romanian Diplomatic Institute.
Vladimir Putin prepared his strategy extremely well before mobilizing troops in eastern Ukraine
The former presidential adviser on security issues believes that tensions have built up over time and that Vladimir Putin has prepared his steps very well before mobilizing troops in eastern Ukraine.
In addition, I believe that Europe needs to prepare for a difficult period in terms of relations with Russia. And war is not ruled out: “The holiday is over for everyone! We have to accept the idea. If even now, after all this cascade of crises that fall on our heads - from the geopolitical one, to the pandemic, the environmental one, the technological challenges, we don't realize that the holiday is over and we start a process of adaptation to the future, then ... don't look up! The message of the film is clear: look ahead to the troubles, that they are coming from the future. And the role of the scientist is essential to combat the existential problem. And when it comes to Russia, there is an existential stake. Not necessarily for our survival as a people, but for democracy, which, even if it is not perfect, remains the best form of organization for the future. "
Moscow wants more than a new piece of the territory of the neighboring country
However, the analyst is of the opinion that Vladimir Putin will not act on impulse because he wants to get, in fact, much more than a new piece of the territory of the neighboring country.
The Moscow leader will only take action when he is assured of victory on all fronts - military and diplomatic, especially since Russia suffered a heavy defeat in the 1980s when it became involved in the conflict in Afghanistan.
The fact that Russia has gathered Western chancelleries at the table is again a milestone victory for Vladimir Putin. The stake for Russia is not only an invasion of eastern Ukraine, but a much more important one, which would allow the Moscow leader to tickle the pride and pride of the Russian people, but also his own.
The disappearance of democracy
High-level negotiations continue between Russia and the West, with diplomacy being the most sought-after way to avoid armed conflict. European and American leaders are threatening Russia with very harsh economic sanctions if it orders its troops to cross the border, some much harsher than those imposed after the 2014 Crimean invasion.
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