What are the factors that affect Ukraine’s chances of a successful counteroffensive?

Is there a possibility for Ukraine to regain its soil from Russia’s troops? Find out in today’s exciting saga that evaluates Ukraine’s odds for a successful strike to reclaim all of its seized areas 🤔😱🚫

Ukraine’s Counterattack: The Thunder Before The Storm

The war between Ukraine and Russia has been raging for more than 500 days, and it shows no sign of ending anytime soon. Both sides have suffered heavy casualties and losses, and the international community has been divided over how to respond to the crisis. In this blog post, I will try to give you an overview of the latest developments and challenges of the war, based on the information I have gathered from various sources.

The Spring Offensive

Ukraine launched a counterattack in the spring of 2023, with the support of NATO and other allies, to try to regain control of the territories occupied by Russia since 2014. This was the counterattack that the world had been waiting for since the start of the conflict, and it caught Russia by surprise.

One of the key factors that enabled Ukraine to launch this offensive was the delivery of long-range cruise missiles from Britain. These missiles, known as Storm Shadow, are low observable, sub-sonic weapons that fly very close to the ground to evade Russian radar. They can hit targets up to 560 km away with high accuracy and precision.

Russia had taken precautions to move its supply depots and command and control nodes out of range of American HIMARs, a rocket artillery system that can fire up to 300 km away. But it did not anticipate the threat posed by Storm Shadow, which could strike much deeper into its rear areas.

For several weeks, Russian targets such as bridges, roads, railways, airfields, bunkers, and command posts were hit by Storm Shadow missiles, causing significant damage and disruption. One of the most notable attacks was the one that allegedly killed or injured Adam Delimkhanov, a Chechen senior military commander and member of the Russian Parliament. Delimkhanov was one of the most influential figures in Chechnya, and a close ally of Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov. His death or injury would be a major blow to Russia’s morale and stability in the region.

Russia claimed to have shot down most if not all of the Storm Shadow missiles, but there was little evidence to support this claim. Instead, Russia resorted to propaganda and misinformation, trying to downplay the impact of the attacks and exaggerate its own successes.

The Ground Action

While the long-range attacks were ongoing, Ukraine was preparing for the ground action part of the counterattack. However, this was not the battle that many had expected. Instead of committing its full force to a decisive breakthrough, Ukraine engaged in a series of attacks known as reconnaissance-in-force.

These attacks involved smaller units and less heavy equipment than usual, and they were meant to probe and test Russia’s defenses without becoming decisively engaged. The goal was to see where the Russian line was weakest, so that it could be exploited by a massed concentration of firepower kept in reserve.

Ukraine also used these attacks to confuse Russia’s mobile reserves. Russia had deployed a large number of troops and mercenaries behind its defensive line, ready to respond to any Ukrainian penetration. But Ukraine attacked across a wide front, making it hard for Russia to predict where the main attack would come from.

To make things worse for Russia, Ukraine continued to launch attacks on Russia’s mobile reserves and transport infrastructure with long-range precision weapons. This slowed down or froze Russia’s ability to maneuver and reinforce its defenses.

Ukraine also employed a tactic inspired by the US playbook: thunder runs. These were swift and bold assaults that penetrated deep into enemy territory, disrupting their command and control and causing chaos and panic. One example was the Ukrainian 35th Marine Brigade, which conducted a week-long thunder run operation along the Mokri Yaly River, southwest of Donetsk. This brigade was lightly armed with armored trucks and a few tanks, but it managed to blast its way through Russian lines with speed and discipline.

These probing attacks were successful in regaining ground on some parts of the front, especially on the flanks of Bakhmut and across eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian government confirmed the liberation of dozens of smaller villages from Russian occupation.

However, these attacks were also costly in terms of casualties and equipment losses for Ukraine. Some western equipment provided by NATO and other allies was also destroyed or captured by Russia. This included American Bradley and German Leopard II tanks, which were rare and valuable assets for Ukraine.

Russia used these losses as propaganda tools, sharing footage of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles on social media and claiming that it had defeated every Ukrainian effort to penetrate its lines. Russia also tried to create a false narrative that supported its Ministry of Defense’s claims that the counteroffensive was a failure.

However, this narrative ignored some important facts:

• Ukraine had not yet committed its full force to the counteroffensive. It still had a sizable force held in reserve, including many western tanks and IFVs that had not been seen on the front lines yet.
• Losses were expected in any offensive operation, especially against a well-entrenched enemy. Ukraine was prepared to sustain and replace these losses, with the help of its allies who had pledged to continue supplying it with weapons and equipment.
• Ukraine had achieved some significant gains in terms of territory and morale, while Russia had suffered some serious setbacks in terms of damage and disruption.

The Challenges and the Future

The counteroffensive was not the end of the war. Both sides still had the manpower and the resources to continue fighting for a long time, even if they suffered catastrophic losses in the current fighting. This is why the best chance for a swift end to the war was a truly combined arms assault that integrated ground and air power with western equipment, shaping it into a plated fist that smashed deep into occupied territory and delivered demoralizing losses to the Russians.

Ukraine’s will to fight was high, as it was defending its sovereignty and its people from a foreign aggressor. Russia’s will to fight was low, as it was fighting a war of expansion and domination that had little support from its own people. Russia knew this too, which is why it resorted to using blocking forces and executions to prevent its soldiers from retreating or surrendering. This was a sign of desperation and weakness, not strength.

However, Ukraine still faced some major challenges and vulnerabilities in its war effort. One of them was its inability to challenge Russia in the air. Ukraine lacked air superiority or even air support over the front, and it had few long-range frontline air defense systems. This meant that it was vulnerable to Russian airstrikes, which could hamper its offensive operations and cause heavy losses.

This is why Ukraine desperately needed western jets and air defense systems to counter Russia’s air threat. The US had recently lifted its prohibition on selling F-16s to Ukraine, which was a good sign of things to come. Australia was also rumored to donate as many as 40 F-18s to Ukraine, as it transitioned to F-35s. These donations would have a very real impact on the ongoing war, as they would give Ukraine a fighting chance in the air.

Another challenge for Ukraine was Russia’s defensive fortifications. Russia had spent six months building up multiple lines of defense along the front, protected by vast minefields, infantry trenches, bunkers, and tank obstacles. These defenses were formidable and difficult to breach, especially without air cover and precision fire.

Ukraine had received some engineering vehicles from its allies, but it still faced a slow and hard fight against a dug-in enemy. This is why it was crucial for Ukraine to achieve a breakthrough and exploit it quickly, getting into Russia’s rear areas and behind its lines of defense.

Conclusion

Ukraine had proven that it was not dumb, and that it was being advised by senior military commanders from NATO, the most powerful military alliance in human history. It had also proven that it was brave and determined, and that it would not give up on its quest for freedom and justice.

The war between Ukraine and Russia was not over yet. It was still a complex and unpredictable conflict that had many aspects and implications. But Ukraine had shown that it had the potential and the support to win this war, if it played its cards right.

📝 Sources: https://pastebin.com/vUCn2j4i