What are analysts saying about Russia's existing crisis?

Russia bet big on Ukraine and lost tremendously. But is the country on the verge of collapse? Hop on this new narrative, which examines some of the ramifications of Putin's costly and failed invasion of Ukraine. 😵😷🤒

• The battlefield is where Russia has the most immediate issues. The situation for Russia in Ukraine is getting more challenging since the start of the Ukrainian fall counteroffensive. The Ukrainian military initially thought the offensive would be a one-off because the majority of people still thought Russia had a military that was simply too powerful and large for the valiant Ukrainian forces to seriously threaten with a crushing defeat. However, the initial successes in the northeast of the nation quickly gave way to a complete defeat of Russian forces. Critical communication routes from Russia's own territory in the north to strategic locations in the center and northeastern occupied territories were severed by Ukraine.
• Russian forces in the occupied north faced certain defeat in the battle for Lyman. In this battle, Ukraine faced off against Russia's most elite armor formation, the renowned 1st Guards Tank Army. It had some of the best weapons Russia had to offer and was designed to be the spearhead of an assault against NATO's strongest fortifications. If NATO invaded Russia instead, the 1st Guards Tank Army would be kept in reserve and launch a direct counterattack on any NATO advance. Before the war even broke out, the 1st Guards were the best Russia had to offer, bar none. Ukraine also delivered such a stunning defeat that a sizable portion of its equipment was left behind as the tankers and gunners of the 1st Guard fled for their lives.
• Unbelievably, the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division, which had been created specifically to support the 1st Guards' infantry, also suffered a defeat. Any western Russian supporter or Russian military blogger who continued to assert that Russia was merely saving its best for last was silenced for good. The First Guards are unquestionably the best. Thought to have been Ukraine's primary goal at first, the counteroffensive failed to make any notable advances in the south. The deception was successful enough for Russia to move several battalions' tactical groups to the south, opening up its northern flank for attack. In spite of fierce and overwhelming opposition, Ukraine managed to liberate Kherson and, thus, defy all odds and achieve victory.
• Its liberation dealt a fatal blow to Russian morale because the city had been the only regional capital that Russian forces had captured. Even the most ardent Russian supporters started to express serious concern over the condition of their armed forces and the outcome of the war after the Ukrainian flag began to fly again in Kherson. However, Ukraine did not achieve these victories in a vacuum, and this is the area in Ukraine where Russia has the greatest difficulty. Tens of billions of dollars in military assistance as well as an equivalent amount of civilian assistance to support the survival of Kyiv's government have flown into Ukraine since the war began.
• When it became apparent that a swift military victory was not possible, Russia intended to simply wait out Kyiv's inevitable financial collapse, taking advantage of the ensuing chaos and lack of government support to erode public support for the Kyiv government. But because of the massive amounts of financial aid provided by the West, Kyiv has managed to stay afloat and hasn't fallen. The most dangerous threat to Russian forces today is modern Western technology, as if that weren't bad enough. Russia tried to use its nuclear trump card in an effort to halt or at least slow the rate of direct military support. Since it became apparent in the late summer that his forces had failed and the Russian military's initial momentum was being reversed, Vladimir Putin has engaged in a game of nuclear brinkmanship.
• He has been very successful, but not quite successful enough. Vladimir Putin has made numerous statements indicating that no option is off the table, heavily implying the threat of nuclear weapons. Despite the fact that he has not explicitly said he would use nuclear weapons, not even when asked directly, he has chosen to speak in a way that keeps the possibility of nuclear conflict alive and well in the minds of westerners. Naturally, the idea of nuclear weapons being used inside Ukraine horrified western observers, and this fear was heightened by the knowledge of what it would inevitably mean when the west used nuclear weapons as retaliation against Russia.
• The world was once again staring down the barrel of a global nuclear conflict for the first time since the end of the Cold War. But Vladimir wasn't just being tough; he was addressing you specifically, the Ukrainian supporters all over the world. Considering that he wanted you to be sufficiently alarmed to doubt either your governments' or the west's ongoing military support for Ukraine, Since Vladimir Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons, the word "escalation" has been used a lot in the media worldwide. Even Ukraine's brilliant tactical and strategic victories inside and outside of Russia have been met with a healthy dose of escalation warnings whenever the topic of sending more weapons to Ukraine has been raised.
• For fear of provoking a stronger response from Russia, the United States has itself refrained from providing Ukraine with the weapons it requires to win a war. Everything here is nonsense. Russia is unable to escalate the conflict further. When it sent its best units into Ukraine, which were kept in reserve in case NATO provoked them, the situation got worse. It got worse when it tried to change the course of events in Ukraine by drawing on its stockpile of precision weapons, which was also kept on hand in case of war with NATO. And it got worse when it started the 300,000-man conscript draft in an effort to turn around its ongoing defeat. Because nuclear weapons were never an option, Russia has no other choice.
• Russian suicide would result from the use of nuclear weapons. Even the Chinese Communist Party, which is Russia's only remaining significant ally on the international stage, would turn away from it, sealing Russia's fate as a pariah terrorist state for years to come. Even opportunistic countries like India would find their relationship with Russia too cancerous to continue, as they have turned their backs on international norms and taken advantage of cheap Russian energy for their own gain. And as the west is inspired to truly destroy Russia by forcing it into military and economic suicide inside Ukraine, eliminating it forever as a threat to the global order, the flow of weapons into Ukraine will only increase, not decrease.
• NATO would never have to use force in retaliation, though they most likely would do so as well by launching conventional airstrikes against Russian forces. Nevertheless, Vladimir continues to threaten nuclear war because it terrifies Westerners, and the strategy has been effective. Out of concern for escalation, the US is refusing to give Ukraine the ATACMS long-range land attack missile it has been requesting since the beginning of the war. However, without this weapon, Ukraine is forced to try to thwart Russian long-range bomber attacks on its infrastructure by carrying out guerilla attacks against airfields deep inside Russia. The use of the word "escalation" by western media undermines Ukraine's capacity to protect its own citizens and works directly in Vladimir's favor.
• However, as the war continues, the number of weapons entering Ukraine increases rather than decreases. After Ukraine successfully attacked airfields located deep inside Russia, the US recently announced that it would send the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine and hastily approve deep strikes into Russian territory. Up until that point, the US had publicly refused to support such an act; however, with US approval, US targeting information may now be made available, greatly enhancing the effectiveness of future attacks. Russia has attempted to start a strategic bombing campaign against Ukraine in response to its losses on the battlefield by using long-range air-to-ground missiles, ballistic missiles, and even suicide drones.
• However, there is almost no chance that this strategy will succeed. First off, since the invention of flight, strategic bombing has never been able to produce a decisive military victory. Even during World War II, a post-war investigation by the US military showed that the strategic bombing of German industry had only transient effects on its capacity to support the conflict. Only the severing of supply lines and direct ground action resulted in long-lasting and severe industrial impairment; factories were either quickly rebuilt or repaired. Similarly, bombing Japan's industries hindered rather than prevented the country from going to war, and it would never have been able to end the war on its own.
• After only a few years of fighting in the Vietnam War, there were essentially no more targets for the US to bomb. Any target with economic or industrial value had already been destroyed, sometimes twice or even three times; however, the war would famously end with peace between the US and the North, the withdrawal of US forces, and victory by the North over the South—whose own industry had been largely unharmed. Due to two major issues, Russia's current anti-terror campaign is doomed to failure.