Ukraine War: How Important is Transnistria?

Russia recently launched Kalibr cruise missiles from vessels in the Black Sea which overflew Moldova en route to targets in Ukraine. They didn't actually cross Romanian territory, but came close, although the graphic suggests they did. Romania is a NATO member, and Russian missiles over Romania would have resulted in more than press headlines.

The Moldovan government has long accused Russia, which bases soldiers in the breakaway region of Transnistria in the east, of stirring unrest in the country, including protests in the capital, Chișinău. 

In an interview with POLITICO last month, [Moldovan President Maia Sandu] accused Russia of using the energy crisis and spiraling costs to "bring instability to Moldova," referring to disinformation efforts by Russia to stoke anti-government feeling. - politico.eu

A complex political situation

The political situation in Moldova/Transnistria is complex, and horribly reminiscent to that which obtained in the Sudetenland and which was used by Hitler as a reason to invade Czechoslovakia at the start of the Second World War.

Moldova is a former Soviet republic with a population of about 3.1 million people with another 475,000 people in Transnistria, 29% of whom are ethnic Russians.

Moldova is not a member of NATO, but in March 2022 applied to join the EU along with the former Soviet republic of Georgia.

Official relations between Moldova and NATO began in 1992 when Moldova joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. However, as Moldova's neutrality is enshrined in its Constitution, there are no official plans for Moldova to join the organization. (Wikipedia)

In early February 2023, the Molodovan Government resigned.

Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned along with her pro-European Union government on 10 February 2023 following intense Russian economic and political pressure.

Dorin Recean has now been confirmed as the new Prime Minister of Moldova.

Russia has long been stoking unrest in Moldova and Transnistria. 

What is Transnistria?

Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), is an unrecognised breakaway state that is internationally recognised as a part of Moldova. Transnistria controls most of the narrow strip of land between the Dniester river and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border, as well as some land on the other side of the river's bank. Its capital and largest city is Tiraspol. 

Transnistria has been recognised only by three other unrecognised or partially recognised breakaway states: Abkhazia, Artsakh and South Ossetia. Transnistria is officially designated by the Republic of Moldova as the Administrative-Territorial Units of the Left Bank of the Dniester - Wikipedia

On 15 March 2022, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe recognized Transnistria as a Moldovan territory occupied by Russia.

Putin = Hitler

There is an unknown number of Russian troops in Transnistria (Wikipedia).

They have been there as a 'peacekeeping force' since 1992 (it's complex and too long to go into now, but there's a bit more about this here). Local Russian passport holders have been recruited as Russian troops can no longer be rotated through the Moldovan airport of Chisnau.

Putin is beginning to sound increasingly like Hitler. 

His 'state of the nation' speech on 21 February 2023 contained many lies (fact-checked here) and promoted escalation of the Ukraine war (although he avoided the word 'war' - it's still a special military operation, apparently). 

And there was more:

Putin on Tuesday stoked tensions in Moldova by cancelling a 2012 decree that backed Moldova's sovereignty in solving the future of a breakaway region of Moldova called Transnistria, where Russian troops are stationed. - BBC

The European Union in November 2022 announced $250 million to help Moldova with an energy crisis after Russia cut off natural gas to the country over the Ukraine war.

Sandu said at that time that Moldova's "acute energy crisis" was caused by Russia, calling the action "political blackmail" that used energy resources as weapons against democracy. (UPI)

Russia plans to destabilise Moldova

Speaking to European Union leaders in Brussels on 16 February 2023, President Zelenskyy said he recently told Moldovan President Maia Sandu about the alleged scheme.

Moldova's Intelligence and Security Service released a statement confirming it has received "respective information from our Ukrainian partners" and said it has also identified "subversive activities, aimed to undermine the Republic of Moldova, destabilize and violate public order."

"At the moment, we cannot provide more details as there is a risk of jeopardizing various ongoing operational activities," the statement read, adding that all of Moldova's state institutions "are working at full capacity and will not allow these challenges to happen."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov charged last week that the West was considering turning Moldova into "another Ukraine." - abcnews.go.com

Demonstrations

There have been recent demonstrations in Moldova in support of Russia. These are part of Russia's destabilisation plan.

Chisnau Airport is a target

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean has said that Russia plans to seize the Moldova airport in Chisinau in order to deploy its military to Transnistria, but the country's security forces are ready for this, Moldova1 has reported.

On 21 February, Recean said that the Moldovan authorities were ready to cope with these challenges. He added that there are several scenarios for destabilizing the situation in Moldova.

"I would like to emphasize once again that our goal is to ensure peace and stability in the country, including in the Dniester region. Moldova stands for a peaceful settlement of the Dniester conflict, and we must align our goals to achieve peace and security," he said. - LB.ua

I am surmising that Russia cannot move troops to Transnistria by sea without establishing a beachhead or capturing a port in Ukrainian territory (or Moldovan territory) - and exposing its naval vessels to Ukraine's proven anti-ship missiles. Therefore, taking the Molodovan airport at Chisnau would be a solution to the problem.

Would the Russian aircraft be exposed to Ukrainian air attacks? 

This could all be fluff of course, but we do know that Russia attacked the key Zotoka bridge between Ukraine and Moldova, using a USV - a naval drone, on 12 February.

Conclusions

The next few days and weeks will be crucial with the threat of a spring offensive from Russia, which many analysts believe is already underway. 

I'm not so sure. I think Putin will want a high profile demonstration of success. 

It's certain that the small 'enclave' of Transnistria is diverting some of Kyiv's planning focus and forces.

And so for me, from my amateur armchair, yes, Transnistria is very important.

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