The Baltic is Heating Up - Politically

There's been a heavy focus on the east of Ukraine with many observers wondering if the touted Russian Spring offensive in the Donbas is really underway as Russia is losing more than 1,000 killed almost every day. 

And others are wondering when and where Ukraine's threatened Spring offensive will start - probably when Russia has lost another 30,000 troops and Ukraine has fresh tanks by the end of March.

In the meantime there has been a lot happening elsewhere in Europe.

Tension in the Baltic is ramping up with diplomatic spats, disinformation, military exercises and Russian force re-orientation. I've taken a quick trip through some of the Baltic news (?) that has caught my eye over the last few weeks.

Disinformation?

Is this Russian disinformation for home consumption as it seeks to set up an excuse for attacking the Baltic states?

The Estonian government is planning to establish the contiguous zone regime in the Gulf of Finland as proposed by the national Foreign Ministry, ERR writes.

The regime will be applied within the 24 nautical miles from the Estonia coast and cover the whole of the Gulf of Finland. It would have a beneficial impact on Estonia's security, protection of the environment as well as archeological and historical objects found in the sea, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu explained.

Estonian special services at the same time will be eligible to check Russian military vessels and civilian ships sailing out of the Leningrad region ports. If inspections are not granted, they will be banned from navigating through the Gulf of Finland. - TASS

Reuters are not reporting this story about 'the closure' of the Gulf of Finland. 

In fact, none of the Western big name news outlets are, but it is being reported by many other 'second tier' news channels. I first saw it on 25 January 2023 and now it's 10 February and all is still quiet on the Western front about this apparent inflammation.

Of course, Tass is not noted as a champion of free or true speech. So, I'm guessing that it doesn't pass the smell test for the major news outlets. Not even Al Jazeera.

Baltic diplomacy developments

It's a strange fact but as tensions between countries mounts, they actually reduce their diplomatic presence. You'd think it would work the other way but no, this is how it has been for centuries. Its seems counter-intuitive to me. 

Anyway, Estonia and Russia are expelling diplomats in a tit-for-tat. The Estonian ambassador was ordered to leave Russia by 7 February 2023. Margus Laidre had been Estonia's representative in Russia since 2018, and had previously worked in Finland and the UK. He's now back home.

Estonia responded by asking the Russian ambassador to leave by the same date.

Russia's move against Mr Laidre comes after Estonia recently ordered a reduction in the size of the Russian Embassy in Tallinn. - BBC

"Now Estonia has taken a new unfriendly step to radically reduce the number of personnel of the Russian embassy in…www.bbc.com

I'm guessing that the requested reduction by Estonia was due to excessive off the books behaviour by so-called Russian diplomats.

Then Latvia followed suit, recalling their ambassador as Russia gave him until 27 February to pack his bags.

And Lithuania's ambassador has been back home since April 2022, the recall being prompted by the Russian war crimes in Bucha.

Other Baltic heating sources

Meanwhile, NATO military exercises have been underway in the region, with Tallinn Dawn shortly to be followed by Operation Cabrit.

This region is highly sensitive. The Suwalki Gap is a 60-mile corridor between Belarus, Lithuania, and Poland - and Russian territory.

The region is of strategic importance because it is the only land route between the Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea, and the rest of Russia via Belarus. 

It's just down the road from Putin's birthplace, St Petersburg (or Leningrad as then was).

This Gap is the area around the cities of Suwałki, Augustów, and Sejny, which connects Poland with Lithuania and other Baltic states and, at the same time, separates the Kaliningrad region of Russia from Belarus.

NATO's fears about the Suwałki Gap intensified after 2014...These worries prompted the alliance to increase its military presence in the area, and an arms race was triggered by these events. - Wikipedia

There have already been spats about Russian trains passing through Lithuania from Russia to Kaliningrad because they were carrying goods subject to sanctions. 

And Russia pulled 12,000 troops out of Kaliningrad and sent them to Ukraine. They didn't come back.

Now, Russia is beefing up its presence in the region and re-organising its military district command structure.

On 17 January 2023, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans for major changes to the structure of the armed forces', to be implemented between 2023 and 2026.

Shoigu also announced the re-establishment of Moscow and Leningrad military districts, a partial return to the Soviet era organisation of forces in Western Russia. A new army corps is to be established in Karelia, near the Finnish border.As the intelligence update states, Russia will probably struggle to staff and equip the expansion. - Twitter

And that's why Belarus is a key ally for Putin.

Russian forces are being trained in Belarus in an ongoing cycle. Putin desperately needs to bring Belarus into the war so that he can split Lithuania from Poland, and isolate Latvia and Estonia (NATO members) from NATO in the process. He could then pressure the northern border of Ukraine and enable a fresh drive down to Kyiv. 

That road to Kyiv proved very tough and expensive for Putin in the last week of February 2022.

So far Belarus's long term president Lukashenko has gone no further than allowing Russian forces to attempt to invade Ukraine from his territory a year ago. That was a major disaster for Russia. He's also provided training facilities and shipped tanks and other armour to Russia. Russian aircraft also operate from Belorussian airfields.

Summary

In summary, the political temperature is definitely increasing as Poland additionally pushes to send Western fighter aircraft to Ukraine.

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