Return to Normal! What is Normal?

When the argument is presented, that 2020 was a year of disruption, it will more than likely encounter minimal to no debate. The last twelve to fourteen months has left everyone screaming, When is the world returning to Normal? I must say even my narrow minded lifestyle which at the genesis of this pandemic celebrated the idea of not having to subject myself to the social scene, has slowly begin to switch positions. Now the soon to be husband of a wife, I find myself desiring some of the ways by which we once lived. Just going to a movie, or simply dinner for two on a patio is somewhat like begging for air; but I am not in a hurry to return, because I am not truly sure of what we are returning too?

I mean think about it? Was the world we knew pre 2019 really all that? Or was its just a reality we settled for because the idea of something different wasn’t there? You and I both know, the idea of change is on the same level of a billionaire realizing his tax bill is one tenth of his income. The average person, present company include, struggle with change, and somewhat avoid it until forced. That said, here we are, seemingly headed upward, moving swiftly beyond the world of death and disruption brought on by covid. But we are also staring in the face of change by force. which brings me back to the original question. Is the normal we once knew truly worth returning too?

An article I read by Heather Long, of the Washington Post explained one point of this like such. The coronavirus pandemic has triggered permanent shifts in how and where people work. Businesses are planning for a future where more people are working from home, traveling less for business, or replacing workers with robots. All of these modifications mean many workers will not be able to do the same job they did before the pandemic, even after much of the U.S. population gets vaccinated against the deadly virus. This has economists warning of a massive need for career changes and retraining in the United States.

“We’re recovering, but to a different economy,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell.

Heather also in her piece remind of a Bill Gates prophecy. He (Bill Gates) predicted that half of business travel and 30 percent of “days in the office” would go away forever. That forecast no longer seems far-fetched. The report continues, pointing to McKinsey Global Institute says that 20 percent of business travel won’t come back and about 20 percent of workers could end up working from home indefinitely. These shifts mean fewer jobs at hotels, restaurants and downtown shops, in addition to ongoing automation of office support roles and some factory jobs. This to me, points to the fact, employers are recognizing how much of the bottomline was directed in dare I say a pointless pit. McKinsey and David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-wrote a report warning that automation is accelerating in the pandemic. He predicts far fewer jobs in retail, rest, car dealerships and meatpacking facilities. This reality is already hitting the marketplace This according to Stephaine Wissink, a managing director at Jefferies, an American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company that is headquartered in New York City.

”When you can take labor out and replace it with automation, you are taking out a significant cost,”

This brings us to the labor, being individuals like you and me. Even if the economy could rebound, returning to its former glory, what good would it do, if no one was around? I know this is a morbid train of thought, but covid has not only exposed the fractures to our economy, but to our heath system as well. According to a PBS report, In the first six months of 2020, life expectancy in the United States dropped by a full year, according to new federal data. Laura Santhanam with Elizabeth Arias, a demographer with the National Center for Health Statistics who served as the report’s lead author, states this isbad, but gets worse if you happen to be a person of color. The write up continues that Communities of color have suffered disproportionately throughout the pandemic, and these latest numbers further illustrate the magnitude of those disparities. Reflecting the many ways racial inequality in the U.S. has been highlighted over the past year, the life expectancy gap between Black and white people has also widened.

As one example, while the life expectancy of a white man dipped by eight-tenths of a year during the first six months of 2020, three years were shaved off the life of a Black man. For decades, Black people had been gaining in life expectancy, edging closer to that of white people, thanks in part to long-running trends in increased access to health care, improved social mobility and greater economic stability, Arias said. It takes a long time for progress in health equity to prolong people’s lives, she said. In 1900, less than a half-century after the end of slavery, Black Americans were dying an average of 14 years sooner than white Americans. By 2019, that gap shrank to 4.1 years. That gap has expanded again — to six years — six months into the coronavirus pandemic. Significantly higher rates of COVID-19 mortality within the Black community are driving the decrease for that demographic, Arias said.

This brings us to our final point in this search for understanding about what we’re going back to? CLIMATE CHANGE… also includes global warming driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases, and the resulting large-scale shifts in weather patterns. Though there have been previous periods of climatic change, since the mid-20th century, humans have had unprecedented impact on Earth's climate system and caused change on a global scale. The conversation of Climate change really hit the national stage during the administration of then President Jimmy Carter. Bringing us to president day, The major winter storm that's swept across the South this week and knocked out power for more than 3 million people in Texas has raised concerns over the vulnerability of the country's power grid to extreme weather events made worse by climate change. Extreme weather events caused 67% more major power outages in the U.S. since 2000, according to an analysis of national power outage data by research group Climate Central. This lead Michael Craig, a professor at the University of Michigan's School for Environment and Sustainability to argue..

"We need to plan better for the increased variability we expect to see under climate change; States and system planners and regulators need to make sure they are accounting for what weather will look like in the future.”

So as I conclude, once again reminding you of a world previously, who denied climate change was real, who denied technological advancement was the gateway to the future, and most of all who showcased that not only do Black Lives Not Matter, but as a result of what happened to Martin Gugino, then 75, suffered a cracked skull, brain injury and was left temporarily unable to walk after he shoved to the ground by police during a Black Lives Matter protest in Buffalo, New York, which resulted in the police getting off, has also concluding that White Lives Don’t Matter. I think not? Yes the future is different, and dare I say unnervingly stressful, but It is bright, and worthy of our united embrace.

Until the Next we can connect, Lawd Willing and the crick don’t rise!! From Me and Mine, Unto you and Yours!! LATTERZ!! -EDB