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Prediction 2: March Primaries

by John Heckenlively about a year ago in opinion

Biden tops Sanders 496-442

Since I was not disastrously wrong on my Super Tuesday predictions (wrong, but not terribly), here is my attempt to predict the upcoming contests for March.

Major caveat: If there is anything that is certain this season, it is that things can change in a New York minute. Joe Biden could have a major gaffe that puts his cognitive issues in sharper relief. But here are my predictions based on educated guessing.

My starting point for delegates after Super Tuesday (factoring in CA, CO and UT): Biden 714, Sanders 635

March 10

Michigan (125 delegates): Despite all the polling, I think Sanders supporters see Michigan as critical and they will turn out in an “all hands” moment. Sanders wins Michigan narrowly, as he did in 2016.

My delegate projection for Michigan: Sanders 66, Biden 59

Washington (89 delegates): Sanders did well in the Pacific Northwest in 2016 and should do well here again. Seattle especially should boost his numbers. Sanders with 56 percent.

My projection for Washington State: Sanders 50, Biden 39

Missouri (68 delegates): Once again, I go against the polling. I think Biden wins Missouri, but narrowly, the same way Clinton did in 2016. A close split between Biden and Sanders.

My delegate projection for Missouri: Biden 36, Sanders 32

Mississippi (36 delegates): Biden continues his winning streak in the South, taking about 75 percent. In this one, the polling is probably more or less accurate, although Sanders may get some of the black vote with the endorsement of Jesse Jackson.

My delegate projection for Mississippi: Biden 27, Sanders 9

Idaho (20 delegates): Sanders did well her in 2016, and should do well here again, despite the change of format. He should get somewhere about 50 percent.

My delegate projection for Idaho: Sanders 12, Biden 8

North Dakota (14 delegates): North Dakota is one of the few caucus states remaining, helping Sanders. He did well there in 2016 and should do well there again.

My delegate projection for North Dakota: Sanders 9, Biden 5

Overall Delegate Projection for March 10: Sanders 178, Biden 174

March 14: Northern Marianas (6 delegates): Should break about 2 to 1 for Biden.

My delegate projection for Northern Marians: Biden 4, Sanders 2

March 17: Another Huge Day

Illinois (155 delegates): Sanders scores a narrow upset over Biden in the Land on Lincoln. I think Chicago could potentially do well for Sanders, if he has the Jackson machine behind him.

My delegate projection for Illinois: Sanders 81, Biden 74

Florida (122 delegates): Biden will win Florida, but probably not by the overwhelming factor that polls predict. The Jewish vote should turn out for Sanders, as will a substantial Hispanic vote. Biden wins, but by about 60-40.

My delegate projection for Florida: Biden 73, Sanders 47

Ohio (82 delegates): Biden takes Ohio, but narrowly. In a fight over working class voters, Sanders can make just as solid or better case than Biden.

My delegate projection for Ohio: Biden 44, Sanders 38

Arizona (67 delegates): Biden narrowly wins Arizona, around 52 percent. The Hispanic vote keeps things close for Sanders.

My delegate projection for Arizona: Biden 36, Sanders 31

Overall delegate projection for March 17: Biden 227, Sanders 197

March 24: Georgia (105 delegates): Biden should continue his winning ways in the South, get around 64 percent in Georgia.

My delegate projection for Georgia: Biden 67, Sanders 38

March 29: Puerto Rico (51 delegates): The month closes with Puerto Rico, where Sanders should eke out a narrow win over Biden.

My delegate projection for Puerto Rico: Sanders 27, Biden 24

March delegate additions: Biden 496, Sanders 442. Biden winds up ahead largely due to big wins in Florida and Georgia.

Running Count as of March 31: Biden 1207, Sanders 1077

John Heckenlively
John Heckenlively
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