If Johnson “Resigns” would it harm Support for Independence?

If 2020 were a book it would be the Necronomicon. H.P. Lovecraft created a universe where Humans are irrelevant to the Great Old Ones and those who exist between the dimensions. We have plausible candidates for the Idiot God Azathoth and the endlessly baying gods who surround him. We have a candidate for Nyarlathotep the crawling chaos radiating contempt for his masters while pouring chaos into the void and we have the backbench unionist shoggoths. To them humans are as irrelevant as the law.

Chaos:

The Brexiteer Gang claimed we would be taking back control of our borders. Just to make sure they are reimposing one between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic and creating a porous border between Kent and the rest of the Island of Britain.

The Brexiteer gang predicted amazing opportunities once we left the EU and this has come true. Thousands of entrepreneurs are looking at the porous border, figuring that the authorities cannot police every road and thinking running trucks across the border and forging paperwork would be a nice little earner even after the cost of bribing the guards. While it may break the law it will do so in a very specific and limited way so it’s OK.

Humans are irrelevant:

The people of Kent are probably not happy at having the garden of England turned into a lorry park repository for rotting fruit and vegetables. They did not vote for this, despite voting leave and it was not an inevitable consequence of leaving. The apparent gross incompetence of the Tories, for whom they voted, has created this situation.

Meanwhile we are given almost daily proof that this government is even more corrupt than previous governments with contracts given away to random Tory donors with no regard for competence or the potential for competence.

As Michael Gove pointed out, the English are sick of experts which is why they create expert committees with no experts?

Cthulu Rises?

The United Kingdom is walking into a neoliberal dystopian capitalist future by dismantling the check and balances that have made the UK’s government a good approximation to a functional democracy. The three main Celtic nations – Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are moving faster and faster towards independence and there are voices, growing slowly louder in England calling for England to be independent of the rest of the UK. If Cornwall begins to stir nothing can stop the breakup not only of the UK but of England.

If England disintegrated it would not be a disaster, England would merely revert to the days when Hengist and Horsa established their glorious rule over South East England while other tribes ruled north of Watford. England would revive itself with memories of Alfred the Great and his ruined Great British Bakeoff.

Chaos to come?

There are, unsurprisingly rumours that The Johnson will resign as PM early in the new year leaving someone else to clear up the mess. He can leave knowing he will not be held totally responsible for the Brexit catastrophe and the breakup pf the United Kingdom. That will be blamed on whoever grasps the poisoned chalice of the Prime Ministership.

Independence?

How would the disappearance of Britain’s Johnson affect support for Independence?

A change of leader may swing some Tory no to yes voters back to no, if the new leader is seen as better than Johnson (not a high bar). Johnson has, however, systematically stripped the cabinet of candidates who might challenge him replacing them with even weaker candidates for PM.

Rishi Sunak is projecting a fake air of competence with his cosmetic fake schemes to help the poor by directing money towards the rich. Priti Patel may appeal to the Xenophobic-but-some-of-my-best-friends-are-Indian backbench tories. Michael Gove may have missed his chance – he is less competent as a schemer than Johnson but should not be dismissed.

Patel would be almost as toxic as Johnson and similarly has a mouth not controlled by a functioning brain. Sunak seems to be pure image but would come over better at PMQs and Gove would survive simply by being forgotten as soon as he left the room.

A new leader would create pressure for an election before 2024. If that happened there is a possibility Kier Starmer would become Prime Minister and pursue neoliberalism with a human face mask.

Only Sunak might get Tories in Scotland switching back to NO again in any serious numbers. Its unlikely Starmer would be able to swing a No vote in any referendum.

Looking at the candidates it seems unlikely a disappearing Johnson would significantly harm the cause of independence. The longer Johnson remains in power the more likely it is we have passed a tipping point.

This is not the time to relax and sit back with beer and popcorn. That would leave us open to the march of the backbench shoggoths and the manipulations of Nyarlathotep. I disagree with some SNP possibilities but we must do everything we can to ensure a pro independence majority if Westminster does not abolish Holyrood. That means supporting and voting for the SNP.