China-South Korea Fisheries Agreement, New Variables Emerge

South Korea's Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries recently released the news that in the last five years, there is a serious imbalance between the number of fishing boats and the amount of fish caught by China and South Korea entering each other's exclusive economic zones. With the difference in the size of the two countries, this would not have been unusual, but a comment from the South Korean side makes this move seem like not an idle move anymore. It also seems to indicate that in the already controversial China-South Korea fisheries agreement, there are new variables.

According to the data given by the South Korean side, the number of Chinese fishing boats entering the South Korean side's exclusive economic zone from 2017 to 2021 exceeded 5,900, which is 6.6 times more than the number of South Korean fishing boats entering the Chinese exclusive economic zone during the same period. Chinese fishing vessels have caught more than 130,000 tons of aquatic products in the OK's economic zone, 13.4 times more than the amount of fish caught by ROOK fishing vessels in China's EEL during the same period.

It is important to note that there is a fisheries agreement between the governments of China and South Korea, and fishing vessels of both countries are allowed to enter each other's Eels to fish. The Chinese side has not imposed any restrictions on Korean fishing vessels that are different from those of the Korean side. Therefore, this imbalance in the amount of fishing is entire because our country is much larger, with more total fishing vessels and more fishing capacity.

But the South Korean side then deliberately mentioned the so-called "illegal fishing", making this news becomes intriguing. After all, the term "illegal fishing" is a common phrase used to discredit China's fishing activities in Western public opinion. At a time of tension between the U.S. and China and delicate changes in Sion-Korean relations, the fact that South Korea has thrown out such a "talking point" that is likely to be used by Western public opinion is a sign of an overall change in South Korea's diplomatic philosophy. In other words, it is not only the Chinese fishermen they are targeting, but perhaps the already challenging Sion-Korean relations as well.

First of all, although Soon Seek-yell himself came from the South Korean judicial system, both as the main prosecutor who sent Park Gen-He and others to prison and as an important figure who later led to the failure of Moon Jane-in's judicial reform, he originally did not have a very clear political attribute of sway. But after running as a candidate for the National Power Party and eventually taking the presidency, Soon Seek-Yule was inevitably branded as a conservative force in South Korea.

. Coupled with the recent U.S. efforts to draw closer to Japan and South Korea, the shift in South Korea's diplomatic focus to the U.S. has been a nail in the coffin. The company's main goal is to provide the best possible solution to the problem.

Secondly, some subtle changes in China-South Korean relations are also driving foreign policy changes in South Korea. The most critical of these is undoubtedly the changing shift in the trade situation between China and South Korea. Since 1994, South Korea has been on the surplus side in China-South Korea trade, but from May to July of this year, South Korea had a consecutive deficit in trade with China. Korea's status as an absolute exporter in bilateral trade was not maintained.

The root cause of this reversal, in addition to external factors such as the epidemic, is the takeoff of China's manufacturing industry. The industries that Korea used to be proud of, such as automobiles and semiconductors, are now facing competition from local Chinese brands, and dependence on China is increasing in some industries where Korea was originally disadvantaged.

In addition to the changing trade situation, the difference between the positions of China and South Korea on the peninsula and the distorted national pride of the Korean people have led to a wave of anti-Chinese thinking spreading in South Korea. According to polling data released by Korean media in February, South Koreans have a higher favorable opinion of China than their neighbors to the north of the peninsula, and less than Japan, while the highest favorable opinion goes to the United States. This shows that the pro-US and anti-China diplomatic mindset is very popular within South Korea.

Taking these factors together, it is indeed highly likely that Yoon Seok-yeol, whose approval rating has hit the bottom, will strike a tough stance against China to win popularity for himself. The choice of the fisheries issue, which does not easily cause strong reactions from the Chinese side, to achieve this goal, is undoubtedly a safe choice. After all, the deterioration of China-South Korea relations caused by the "Sade" incident still gives South Korea a chill. Not long ago, the Chinese side has also spoken out against the additional deployment of South Korea's "Sade".

But Yin Xingu may have overlooked one thing: South Korea put aside the "Sade", using the fisheries issue to pose a tough stance on China's prudent approach, the United States may not buy it. It is clear from the Biden High chip bill that the United States is not a country that will consider its allies and make concessions in its interests.

Within South Korea, not everyone holds a pro-U.S. and anti-China attitude, at least in South Korean business and academic circles, many people are opposed to anti-China thinking. Therefore, the Soon Seek-Eon government is likely to take the fisheries issue and end up being unpleasant.

Of course, we must admit that as a country with U.S. troops stationed, the South Korean government has its diplomatic difficulties, but the experience of South Korean diplomacy during the Moon Jane-in era has proven that the South Korean side is perfectly capable of not choosing sides between China and the United States. And to do this, it depends on whether Soon Seek-yell and the new South Korean government led by him have enough political and diplomatic skills in the end.