Andy Burnham will be the UK Prime Minister, But it will be bloody

As I'm writing this, upwards of 70 Labour MPs have announced they want Keir Starmer to resign as leader, and thus as Prime Minister. This all comes off the heels of Labour's worst possible result in the Local Elections wherein they lost over 1500 seats in Local Councils in England, as well as lost control over the Welsh Senedd which was handed to Plaid Cymru on a silver platter. Reform UK has taken over 1,000 seats in Local English councils, as well as [basically] replaced the Tories in Scotland, Wales and many Conservative seats in the local councils, as well as taking over quite a few labour seats in the process. 

There are two contenders for Starmer's position; Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting. Those familiar with British politics have already immediately clocked a problem with one of those two options, and its that Andy Burnham is the Mayor of Manchester, he's not a Member of Parliament (MP), so how is he going to run as leader? Well, we'll get to that in a moment but the man we should worry about is Wes Streeting. Thus far Streeting has opted not to say one way or the other, about whether he supports Starmer or not. Streeting probably knows the old political adage that those who wield the knife, do not become king. 

Thus staying neutral for him is probably the least bad thing for him to do, Pat McFadden, Secretary for Work and Pensions has stated to Beth Rigby at Sky News that no one confronted or challenged Starmer at the most recent cabinet meeting, presumably including Wes Streeting. So who is Wes Streeting? And why should most Brit's be worried and/or furious that he might become leader of the Labour Party. 

Pulling the ladder up behind you

Wes Streeting is the Labour MP for Ilford North, and more crucially, the current Secretary for Health and Social Care. Streeting belongs to the Right wing of the Labour party, much like Kier Starmer. But unlike Starmer, Wes is far more outwardly Corporatist than Starmer who is a Technocrat (at best). Streeting has outwardly stated that more of the NHS should include private companies, and he's also received donations from private health providers in the UK. 

In addition to more Right wing Economic beliefs, Wes is basically a "pick-me" of the LGBT community, despite being an openly gay man he has actively campaigned and invoked policies that harm Trans people and trans children. This is an issue because the policy changes as Secretary for Health and Social Care have been so blanketed, they've also prohibited or made access to gender affirming care to non-trans people all the more difficult, or outright impossible. Situations like cisgender teenagers needing puberty blockers to reduce over-production of certain hormones, now either have to jump through hoops or not get those medications at all. 

When it comes to Foreign Policy, Streeting is a staunch ally of Israel and an atlantacist to a fault, backing the United States, and Donald Trump by proxy at basically every turn. In regards to Social, Economic or Foreign policy he is either exactly the same as Keir Starmer or even more right wing. 

King of the North: Andy Burnham

In comparison to Streeting, Burnham is on the Left of the Labour party, but he hasn't always been. Burnham started off on the "soft left" of the Labour party under Gordon Brown, and was generally regarded as being of the Blairite tradition. In other words, he was a "third way" social democrat who was broadly pro-business and socially liberal. In some respects, he hasn't changed, as Mayor of Manchester he's worked with the private sector, and in others has actively clashed with them. 

He identifies as a Socialist, and is broadly seen as one of the most Progressive elected figures in any major British city. He's seen massive growth as Mayor, Manchester has seen GDP growth of ~3.1% annually, which is double the national average. He's seen as a big spender mayorship, which puts him at odds with the Starmer Government in London, who have tightened the belt of the entire country. Manchester has also seen more economic migration from London into itself than it has seen drain to London. Manchester now is seen as a major Tech hub of the United Kingdom, as well as expanding its reach into Green Energy and Life Sciences. 

He has abided by the Socialist label in respects that he wants to re-nationalise "the basics" aka water, energy, housing, transport and health. Speaking of which, he has successfully nationalised the bus network in Manchester and brought it under the banner of the "Bee Network" (the worker bee is seen as a symbol of Manchester and the broader co-operative movement to which Burnham belongs). 

Unlike Streeting, Burnham is a Social Progressive not just Economic one, he has a strong track record of being very supportive of LGBTQ+ rights, yes, including Trans Rights. He has worked to better integrate Trans healthcare into the larger Healthcare system inside of Manchester, trying to get the waiting times down for gender identity clinics in the region. As well as working to expand access to mental health resources to LGBTQ people of colour and faith, showing a firm belief in Intersectionality. 

Homelessness is a huge issue for Burnham, to which he's seen some success on. Including donating a chunk of his own salary to homeless hostels to ensure that at least 650 people in Manchester have a bed to sleep in every night. He has however been criticized for not doing enough to build more social housing in Manchester in order to permanently house those people living on the streets. But i guess there's an argument to be made that he doesn't have quite the resources to guarantee a house for every single person. That is often a task for the central government, and rarely something a Mayor can do on their own. 

A unique trait of Burnham is that, unlike virtually any Conservative or Labour members of parliament or members period, he actually supports the implementation of Proportional Representation. A policy that actually supports and encourages more parties and thus more voices seats in the House of Commons, this in turn would force the Labour Party and the Conservatives to actually try harder to win elections, rather than just relying on a age old assumption that Tory and Labour are the only two options. 

A Prime Minister in waiting

As mentioned before, Burnham cannot run as leader of the Labour party because he is not currently a sitting MP. However, there have been a few MPs who have stated they would step aside and allow Burnham to run in their seat, allowing Burnham in turn to challenge Starmer as leader of the Labour Party. This was attempted over the Gorton and Denton by-election, which eventually saw Hannah Spencer of the Green Party taking the seat and not the Labour party candidate. 

This was a failed plan, because Starmer blocked Burnham from being the candidate in Manchester despite there clearly being an appetite for him to serve that constituency. This a calculated political move because Starmer knew what Burnham's intentions were, and to put it simply, did it to keep himself in power. But it appears that, that decision to block Burnham, guaranteed that the by-election would be lost to the Green party. Which in turn has resulted in a momentum accelerator for both Reform and the Greens, the two parties who would eventually eat into Labour's vote share in the local elections. 

This is the backbone of the anger that many Labour MPs currently have towards Starmer and much of his party. Many have the view that he should have swallowed his pride and let Burnham in, because at least then, he would have presented himself a challenger to bench himself against, and give more progressive and left wing voters someone in his party to fall in line behind. But he didn't do that, and now he's likely going to have to step down and let someone else take over. 

So how does Burnham take over the party from the outside? Well like i've said at least 3 times now, he would need to be a member of parliament. The obvious option is for another Manchester based MP to stand down and let Burnham run in that seat, but Starmer is likely to block him again so we need to find a likely ally to Burnham who would run for him as leader, and put Burnham in a seat and swap positions with him. Basically the British version of what people suspect Trump of wanting to do, rather than run as president a 3rd time, run as vice president, have the President step down, and take over as president. Except this is to actually save the Labour party from its own incompetence and not turn a dominant world party into a fascist one party state, very big distinction. 

The Bait and Switch… but not really

So who would likely run as Leader of the Labour Party in order to do a swap with Burnham later on? Well there's two options as far as I see it; Rebecca Long-Bailey (RLB) or Richard Burgon. Both of them are Corbynites and both of them are from the North of England, RLB is a Manchester lass herself and has run as Labour leader before, and actually finished second to Keir Starmer. Meaning a re-run against a Keir Starmer 2.0 in the form of Wes Streeting would likely put herself in first place, almost by default. 

Richard Burgon is the MP for Leeds, and like RLB, is a firm Corbynite and belongs on the left of the labour party. A firmly progressive candidate, and much like RLB also ran for leader of the Labour party in 2020, eventually throwing much of his weight behind Rebecca towards the end of the Leadership election. Both RLB and Burgon know how to run, and they also know the internal workings of the Labour party in a way that would allow them to run against Starmer. Both are natural allies to Burnham, and would give him legitimacy if he did in fact run as a progressive "soft left-winger" willing to do what needs to be done to keep Reform out of downing street. 

I reckon that RLB and Burgon will probably be talking to eachother right now as I write this, trying to figure out who runs as the Progressive, and how they bring Burnham into the fold, either as Prime Minister or as a major cabinet member. Because as much as Burnham has been an excellent Mayor of Manchester, he has the skills and popularity to possibly recover a Labour party that is currently in its death throws alongside the Conservative party. 

As for what this means for the Greens, it will probably still result in the Greens throwing out all the Starmerites and Blairites out of their seats, and some of those seats will still go towards Reform UK, but the key is less of them will go towards Reform UK and Nigel Farage. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a boost in labour membership as people anticipate a new leadership election, and most of them will vote for an RLB or Burgon leadership especially if there is a backroom deal with Burnham to get him in cabinet and thus a seat in the House of Commons.