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What are the most popular travel destinations in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic?

Jessica A. Bell is Senior Program Officer at the Nuclear Threat Initiative

By [email protected]Published 2 years ago 6 min read
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Improved health and safety conditions could boost travel bookings in the wake of the pandemic.

During a pandemic, the quality of the health response can affect the competitiveness of a tourist destination.

? Health and hygiene have always played an important role in the competitiveness of global tourism. Now, COVID-19 is making it even more important, and may reshape the map of the most popular destinations in the process.

The report analyses emerging trends in visitor preferences, attitudes and choices regarding health and hygiene. The results show that good health and hygiene can greatly increase travel bookings and thus change the landscape of the highly competitive tourism industry.

This report expands the preference for health and hygiene based on the results of the report, taking into account the actual capacity to respond to COVID-19. Specifically, how post-pandemic consumer assessments of a destination's ability to respond to a crisis before deciding to travel could change the competitive dynamics among those destinations.

In this respect, the Asia-Pacific region (APAC) is a good research object. Its tourism industry is highly competitive on a global scale, but its health and hygiene conditions are extremely diverse.

As the chart below shows, in general there is a positive relationship between health and hygiene and overall competitiveness. Destinations that score highly for health and hygiene tend to also score highly for tourism competitiveness.

COVID-19 response and competitiveness

Most of these countries have responded strongly to COVID-19 compared to the rest of the world. Overall, the region has been exemplary in many aspects of its handling of the crisis.

Some destinations in this highly successful group are doing even better than others in terms of containment. Given the attention tourists are now paying to COVID-control-related capabilities, such capabilities could boost their competitiveness when destinations reopen.

Japan and Australia

Before the pandemic, for example, Japan and Australia ranked highly in terms of competitiveness as tourist destinations. While both countries have taken strong measures to deal with COVID-19, other countries have reported fewer cases. In theory, that could drive tourist flows to other Asia-Pacific destinations such as Vietnam or Thailand, which have seen few cases of COVID-19 compared to the world.

Japan and Australia, on the other hand, have had success in controlling outbreaks compared to the rest of the world and have a long history of being the best places to travel because of their cultural and natural resources. With their well-developed health and hygiene infrastructure, unique cultural and nature-related experiences, and health-conscious marketing, Japan and Australia are likely to maintain their competitive edge.

Thailand and Vietnam

At the same time, destinations such as Thailand and Vietnam have taken the lead in the region and even the world in their coronavirus response, which is likely to make them more competitive in the aftermath of the pandemic from a tourist safety perspective.

With the outbreak of COVID-19, Thailand has responded very robustly, with low case counts and tight lockdowns.

Vietnam is a good example of how competitiveness can change dramatically in the future. While Vietnam is on the rise in the global tourism competitiveness rankings, from 75th in 2015 to 63rd in 2019, it is the lowest ranked country in the "Best Destinations in the Asia-Pacific region" at 63rd. Furthermore, Viet Nam ranks third from the bottom in global health security for pandemic preparedness, and 50th globally, compared to other regional destinations. Still, Vietnam is one of the best countries in the world in terms of its robust response to COVID-19. Vietnam's rigorous and swift policy adjustments and health responses to tourist destinations have earned it worldwide acclaim and emulation, thanks to its early efforts to pursue leading communications efforts (including a magical PSA music and dance challenge video featuring a Vietnamese pop star, The video has been viewed more than 60 million times on YouTube since March).

Therefore, both Thailand and Vietnam should continue to invest in their health infrastructure, and destination managers should actively engage in communication and marketing efforts, integrating their COVID-19 response capabilities as a matter of pride and closely aligned with tourist safety into future destination marketing campaigns. Doing so could help both countries gain a huge competitive advantage over other regional players once tourism is fully reopened in due course.

Singapore

Singapore is another case in point. Singapore ranks in the middle of selected rankings for tourism competitiveness in the Asia-Pacific region, and the island nation has also implemented a robust pandemic response at the global and regional levels. In fact, many countries around the world are praising Singapore's leading technology interventions and contact tracking efforts, especially after Singapore officials made the underlying code available to developers around the world.

Nevertheless, the report says that in addition to assessing a destination's health response to COVID-19, it is important to recognize the dynamic nature and interrelationships of the various components of tourism competitiveness and the impact of COVID-19 on them. For example, given these new health and hygiene preferences, tourists and residents may be more inclined to visit less populated natural destinations, which is a big benefit for some of the natural resource-rich destinations in the Asia-Pacific region. However, this could have a detrimental impact on urban destinations such as Singapore, despite its high health and hygiene scores and strong pandemic response capacity. But to counter this potential bias against urban tourism, places such as Singapore will need to find a way to put future visitors at ease by demonstrating its strong response to COVID-19 and the measures it has taken to prepare for future outbreaks.

India

The final destination worth exploring is India. In terms of tourism competitiveness, India ranks 34th in the Tourism Competitiveness Index, 8th in culture and 14th in relation to natural resources. Add in price competitiveness, which ranks 13th, and it is not surprising that the number of international visitors to India has soared from 5.8 million in 2010 to 17.4 million in 2018. However, the destination is ranked 105th in terms of health and hygiene, with poor access to basic health services relative to the population and limited availability of doctors and hospital beds. In addition, India is one of the tourist destinations most affected by the pandemic. So while India shares the same wealth of cultural and natural resources as other similar destinations, it risks losing competitiveness given its potential weaknesses in health and hygiene and its delayed response to COVID-19.

Include tourism in the health policy agenda

The above analysis is merely to highlight that, based on current observable trends, travelers will in future consider the potential health and hygiene conditions of destinations, including their response to the COVID-19 crisis, before making booking decisions.

In addition, the purpose of this report is not a criticism of a government or a health system, but that such as tourism competitiveness index, index of concrete works, to show the nature of the tourism department of complex and interconnected, at the same time promote meaningful multi-sectoral participation, to supplement the national health security and tourism needs assessment, prioritization, planning and financing of the existing processes.

These findings can help galvanize political action to fill gaps in health security and health capacity, and to better integrate tourism into national health agendas and health into tourism promotion. For this to happen, travel policies, infrastructure, digitalization, and existing health and sanitation systems must be aligned.

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