Unraveling Sudan's Revolution

December 19th, 2018 marked the beginning of a significant revolution that swept across Sudan, challenging President Omar Bashir's oppressive military regime. After enduring decades of brutality, civilians rose up, yearning for a democratic system in their nation. In a matter of months, two key figures emerged to help overthrow Bashir in a coup, offering the promised future that the protesters had demanded. However, four years later, these same men find themselves locked in a devastating conflict, tearing Sudan apart and causing the deaths of countless innocent civilians. How did Sudan undergo such a rapid transformation, and how did these once-allied leaders become bitter enemies?

Clashes and a deadly coup shook Sudan, highlighting its long history of military takeovers. Throughout the country's nearly century-long existence, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), formerly the official military, held immense power. Since gaining independence from Anglo Egyptian rule, Sudan had experienced a series of successful coups, with military officers toppling one leader after another. In 1958, Abdullah Kalil, a retired military officer and sitting prime minister, orchestrated the first successful military coup, placing Sudan under military rule. Colonel Jaafar Nimeiry repeated this pattern by overthrowing a brief democracy in another successful coup around a decade later. In 1985, Nimeiry was dethroned by another military officer who subsequently established a new democratic government. Four years later, Colonel Omar Bashir seized power and appointed himself as the new head of state, setting himself apart from his predecessors.

Bashir recognized the fate that befell previous leaders and employed a strategy known as coup proofing to safeguard his position. He surrounded himself with protectors, ensuring they remained checked and unable to overthrow him. His first line of defense was the SAF, which he heavily relied upon to suppress an ongoing civil war in southern Sudan. Under Bashir's command, the SAF and allied militias committed atrocious acts against civilians. While the army was engaged in the south, another conflict emerged in Darfur. Neglected and marginalized, the people of Darfur felt agitated due to inadequate representation in the government and a lack of essential resources. In 2003, rebel groups initiated attacks against troops in Darfur, prompting Bashir to support local Arab militias, known as the Janjaweed, instead of relying on the SAF. The Janjaweed, infamous for their brutality, followed Bashir's orders and targeted Darfuri rebels and civilians, resulting in the destruction of numerous villages. SAF troops in Darfur also played a role in the destruction, with both groups accused of mass killings, rape, and forced displacement.

The events in Darfur taught Bashir valuable lessons on maintaining his power. Seeking additional protection, he turned to one Janjaweed leader he trusted above all others: Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti. Bashir referred to Hemeti as "my protection," a play on the Arabic word "Hemmati." By 2011, the long and gruesome civil war in the south ended with South Sudan gaining independence, leaving Bashir in a weakened position. Sudan's economy suffered a significant blow as many of its oil resources, previously under Bashir's control, were now in South Sudan. To bolster his power, Bashir granted official status to Hemeti and the Janjaweed as a paramilitary force called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in 2013.

Initially, the RSF operated under the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), an agency that also served as one of Bashir's protectors. Despite supporting the SAF in the Darfur conflict, the RSF came directly under Bashir's command in 2017, emphasizing its purpose of protecting him. Bashir ensured the RSF's loyalty by granting Hemeti financial autonomy and allowing him to control Darfur's gold mines, engage in weapon and mineral smuggling, and deploy troops to war-torn regions in exchange for financial gains. Meanwhile, Bashir continued to involve the SAF in major industries such as weapon production and telecommunications, enriching both forces while Sudanese civilians struggled.

In 2018, amid a severe economic crisis, spontaneous protests erupted across Sudan. The government's budget allocated a disproportionate amount to the security sector, which included Bashir's protectors, while ordinary Sudanese people struggled to meet basic needs. These protests eventually coalesced in Khartoum, the capital city. Bashir, backed by the RSF, SAF, and other security sectors, refused to step down, leading to a prolonged standoff with protesters who demanded democracy. However, the resolve of the protesters remained unyielding, prompting the RSF and SAF to realize that Bashir's leadership was no longer beneficial to them. In a surprising turn of events on April 11th, 2019, SAF commanders colluded with Hemeti and ousted Bashir from power.

Although the removal of Bashir was celebrated by protesters, they remained skeptical of the man who orchestrated the coup. Shortly after, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, a former regional commander in Darfur, assumed control of the South, effectively placing him and Hemeti in charge of Sudan. Their complicity in the violence in Darfur, where they had previously collaborated against a significant portion of the population, tarnished their reputations among the people. Subsequently, Burhan and Hemeti turned against the protesters, cracking down on pro-democracy demonstrations in Khartoum. On June 3rd, 2019, the RSF brutally killed over 100 people during a sit-in protest, while other massacres occurred throughout the country.

As the situation deteriorated, international intervention became necessary to guide Sudan towards a democratic path. The United States, along with its Arab allies, the United Kingdom, Ethiopia, and the African Union, exerted pressure on Sudan's military and protesters to agree on a power-sharing agreement. The agreement entailed the formation of a transitional council comprising representatives from both the military and the civilian protest movement. According to the plan, the military would hold control for 21 months, followed by a civilian-led government for 18 months, ensuring the eventual transfer of power to elected civilians. However, despite warnings from the protesters, Burhan and Hemeti were appointed as the leaders of the council, with Burhan as the chair and Hemeti as the vice-chair.

Initially, the council adhered to the agreement, appointing Abdallah Hamdok as the new prime minister. Nevertheless, Burhan and Hemeti repeatedly intervened militarily, including staging a coup in October 2021, which ultimately led to Hamdok's resignation in January 2022. Consequently, Burhan assumed the de facto leadership of Sudan, with Hemeti serving as his second-in-command. Hemeti, who had amassed significant wealth and positioned himself as a statesman, found it difficult to accept a subordinate role. As Burhan formed personal alliances with leaders around the world, Hemeti mirrored his actions, leveraging his gold mine wealth to cultivate relationships with influential figures in various countries.

Following another year of protests, the United States, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom pressed Burhan, Hemeti, and the protesters to sign a new agreement on December 5th, 2020. The agreement promised the formation of a civilian-led transitional government by April 2023. However, a major disagreement between the two men arose regarding the integration of the RSF into Burhan's army, which would curtail Hemeti's power. Burhan proposed a two-year timeline for the integration, whereas Hemeti insisted on a ten-year timeframe. This disagreement created a significant rift between Burhan and Hemeti, fueling the ongoing conflict between them. Consequently, both sides deployed hundreds of thousands of armed personnel across the country, with Burhan's forces, including the air force, inflicting numerous casualties, while Hemeti's financial resources allowed for the arming of additional ground troops. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of civilians, mass displacement, recurrent violations of ceasefires, and futile negotiations between the warring parties.

The once hopeful revolution in Sudan has been overshadowed by the power struggle between these two men. Regardless of the outcome of the war, protesters feel betrayed by the de facto leaders of the country and disillusioned by the international community, which claimed to support their aspirations for democracy.