There are four ways in which technology will affect human work

From outflow to empathy, a new report identifies four ways technology is affecting our work.

Opinions differ as to whether technological progress is good or bad for our careers.

Now, a report by the Royal Society of Arts has set out four scenarios that show what the world might look like in 2035. The study shows that technology will affect our work in four ways, namely automation, digitisation, people management and so-called "broking" -- which may appear on online marketplaces like eBay.

This week, the Office for National Statistics predicted that automation will replace 1.5 million British jobs. Waiters, shelving clerks, junior salespeople and bar staff are most likely to be replaced, while dentists, teachers and doctors face the same fate.

Last year, a poll showed that 23 per cent of British workers - about six million people - thought their jobs would no longer be needed in 10 years' time. But the survey also found that nearly three-quarters of people are confident they can adapt to social developments and improve their skills to cope with technological change. PwC, a professional-services firm, predicts that AI will help boost Britain's GDP by 10% over the next decade.

Beware the prophets of doom

At the same time, the RSA report warns against focusing too much on people who claim to know about the future.

As a result, the report sets out four ideas that it says "provide inspiration for further discussion, rather than developed proposals".

Is the empathic economy the solution to all the world's problems?

Four kinds of ideas

The first, called the "big tech economy," describes a world of rapid technological development, creating a new machine age that provides high-quality products and services at very low prices. The disadvantage is that some multinational companies are in charge, which will eventually lead to rising unemployment and unstable employment.

In the precision economy, monitoring the workplace allows for real-time evaluations of employee performance. Gig economy platforms manage employees, with competition replacing cooperation. It is widely believed that this will lead to a more meritocratic society where efforts are rewarded, resources are better used and waste is eliminated, the RSA report said.

Moreover, the outflow economy envisages a scenario of economic collapse, where funding for innovation is cut and the UK is "stuck in a low-skill, low-productivity and low-wage working pattern". Capitalism was replaced by other economic models: co-operatives and communities emerged in food, energy and banking. Low wages have encouraged many people to move away from cities and live a self-sufficient life.

The empathic economy envisages a future society based on a system of responsible management. As technology has advanced, so has public awareness of its risks. Tech companies self-regulate, work with external stakeholders, and workers and unions jointly manage automated production. But the RSA warns: "This trend brings with it emotional Labour, the need to manage one's emotions and even restrain oneself in order to meet the needs of others."

No single economic scenario can solve all problems, the report says. "While an empathic economy may seem optimal, look beneath the surface and see the risks it poses, such as the rise of emotionally draining work."

Change old patterns with AI

The report cites the example of the UK's National Health Service, which still uses fax machines despite having an Internet protocol in place since 1996. Ministers stopped buying fax machines after announcing last year that the NHS was the world's biggest buyer, but more than 9,000 people still use them.

"With further discussion of the fourth Industrial revolution, it is easy to lose sight of the non-technological trends that may affect the Labour market," the report says. For example, the level of net migration to the UK, the strength of trade unions, the extent of investment in education and skills, the extent of climate change and the state of the global economy."

Matthew Taylor, RSA's chief executive, said: "There's a lot more that we need to work with. With the right policies and practices, we can not only manage the worst effects of technology, but also use it for the benefit of workers, minimizing the drudgery and increasing the work that brings meaning and satisfaction to our lives."