Serious Wild Ass Guess

I was an Intelligence Officer for the US Government for 32 years.

When I tell people that fact, most don’t know how to comprehend the meaningfulness behind it. Sometimes I can see it people’s eyes.

They think I’m making it up. I can’t blame them. I’d probably think the same way.

One of the things people really don’t understand is how Intelligence even works, so here is a simple explanation.

There are people who go get information. They collect all the facts, or rumors, or assumptions and they put it all into one file. The people who collect the raw data, never speculate on what it means or twists it’s “meaning”. They deal with “Intelligence Raw Facts”.

Then, all these facts are thrown into the same folder. Someone who had nothing to do with collecting the facts, looks at all the information. That way the person is not biased into believe one piece of raw data, that may contradict other data, is more reliable or important.

All facts matter and they all need to be evaluated to understand all the information.

The person who looks at all the information, is called the Fusion analyst. The Fusion analyst then tries to assimilate meaning to the facts. What does it all mean? More importantly, how does that meaning of past events predict or impact future events. What is The likelihood that each event could happen. This is called an “analytical conclusion”. We also call this conclusion a “WAG” or even a “SWAG” ,,,

Or spelled out: A “Wild Ass Guess” or a “Seriously Wild Ass Guess”.

So why am I telling you this in my Real Estate Blog?

Because, no matter how much data you have, no one can predict the future!

There is a lot of talk of an massive economic crash right around the corner. Analytical conclusions stating housing prices may drop 40%. The stock market is going to see the greatest recession or even a depression than ever recorded.

Last week, they talked about how we might default on our debt….

Come on,,,, those conclusions are what we like to call,, hype!

Yes, we have had bad times in the past. Yes, the algorithms, graphs, historical data suggests it is more likely we will see continued negative pressure on housing prices over the next five years.

But what if they are wrong? What if they are simply and seriously wild ass guessing to what it all means?

Here’s my SWAG:

Most people are in a very low interest rate mortgage.

Most people have significant equity.

Most people have no intention of selling their house and taking on a large mortgage with high rates.

So there is no pressure to sell.

15% of the massive home buying during COVID was done by large corporations, that will hold on to this property for rental gains.

The 1% even came out and told us all about the great reset.

“You will own nothing and be happy about it”.

Because we have low inventories, prices will hold,,, maybe even give back a little 10% or 20%…

BUT,, then it will be election season, and no one wants the FED to interfere. And they will start to quantitative ease back,, IE lower the rates…

Then, all hell will break loose. There will be a mad rush to the market, trying to catch the bottom and all the losses will disappear in a year… hitting new highs.. forcing interest rates down, so the people can return to normal,,,

And inflation adjusts…..

Who knows? maybe I’m wrong, maybe all the dooms day tellers are right

THE SKY IS FALLING,,, THE SKY IS FALLING!

Or maybe, just maybe, the less common SWAG is right.. if you watch the stock market that is what normally happens.. because that is what the rich what us to do…

But what do I know???

I thought Iraq DIDN’T have the nukes! Oh wait,,,,,

If you enjoyed this article, please like and follow. If you are in the market to sell or buy a house (yea I know what I just said),, if you are in the market, give me a call.

I treat all clients like the Generals I once answered to, I’m at your beckon call.

Michael Barnett

Realtor - The Joe Taylor Real Estate Group - Las Vegas, Nevada

S.0199556

(702) 344-9293

[email protected]