Hurricane Hilary Strengthens to Category 3, Poses Flooding Threat to Southern California and Southwest

Hurricane Hilary, rapidly intensifying in the Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico, has surged to Category 3 strength, raising concerns about significant flooding across Southern California and parts of the Southwest. The National Hurricane Center reported sustained winds of 120 mph and anticipates the storm to elevate to Category 4 status with winds exceeding 130 mph by Friday.

As of Thursday evening, Hurricane Hilary was situated approximately 445 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The storm's path as it moves northward along Mexico's Baja Peninsula over the next few days remains uncertain, making accurate predictions for the most intense rain and wind challenging.

Potential Impact on Rainfall and Flooding

Hilary's arrival is expected to bring substantial rainfall, with the potential for flooding, to various regions. While it is projected to weaken before reaching Southern California and parts of the Southwest, the threat of heavy rain and flooding remains. The following are key points of concern:

Southern California: The region could experience substantial rainfall, with anticipated widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches over the weekend, particularly on Sunday and Monday. Some areas could see local amounts of up to 6 inches, potentially exacerbating flood risks.

Southern Nevada: Similar to Southern California, heavy rainfall is projected, with rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 4 inches. The most significant deluges are expected over Sunday and Monday.

Arizona, Central California, and Northern Nevada: These areas might receive rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, contributing to the overall moisture and flood potential.

Multiple consecutive days of heavy rainfall reduce the ground's ability to absorb moisture, thereby heightening the risk of flooding.

Drought Relief and Weather Changes

Despite the flooding concerns, the precipitation from Hurricane Hilary is anticipated to bring relief to drought-stricken parts of the Southwest. Regions such as New Mexico, California, and Arizona have been grappling with drought conditions. The monsoon season, which typically provides a significant portion of the yearly rainfall, has been notably absent this summer.

The expected rainfall and increased cloud cover are also predicted to lead to a substantial cooling trend over the weekend. Temperatures that have been soaring into the upper 90s to 110s may experience a reduction of up to 20 degrees, offering much-needed respite from the scorching heat.

Historical Significance and Rare Landfall Potential

Should Hurricane Hilary make landfall in California as a tropical storm, it would mark a remarkable occurrence. Notably, such an event has not transpired in nearly 84 years. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reveals that the last tropical storm to hit California was in 1939, and the only other recorded instance was the San Diego Hurricane in 1858.

While the current forecast suggests that Hilary may maintain its tropical status as it enters Nevada, this would represent an unprecedented event in recorded history.

Conclusion

As Hurricane Hilary continues its trajectory toward the Baja Peninsula and subsequently, parts of the Southwest, the potential for significant rainfall and flooding looms large. Residents of Southern California and neighboring regions should remain vigilant and prepared for the incoming weather impacts. While the storm offers hope for drought relief, its unpredictable nature underscores the importance of staying informed and taking necessary precautions to mitigate potential risks.