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Do We Have to Accept Putin's Aggression to Avoid A World War?

When can Putin be stopped?

By Mehedi Hasan ShawonPublished 2 years ago 5 min read
Do We Have to Accept Putin's Aggression to Avoid A World War?
Photo by Yukon Haughton on Unsplash

Just a few months ago, we debated whether Russia would invade Ukraine. Russia had mobilized a large number of troops on its border. The country claimed it as its right. The same thing happened on Belarusian soil. Many did not believe when the United States predicted a full-scale Russian attack on Ukraine.

Many trusted Putin. But when the aggression started, many people again supported the aggression on various pretexts. Putin said he was not invading Ukraine. Conducting military exercises on its borders. But now it is clear that there is nothing to believe in Putin's statement.

Russia has said in a statement that it will end its military operations in the eastern part of the country and will end its military operations in the eastern part of the country. But diplomatic analysts say Russia wants to establish a corridor from Donbas to Crimea. At least that is what Russia's desperate attempt to capture Mariupol is all about. Because there is Mariupol between Donbas and Crimea However, a Russian army general recently announced a larger target.

Russian General Rustam Minekayev recently told a state television channel that Russia wanted to occupy the whole of southern Ukraine, not just from Donbas to Crimea. He also said the reason. If Russia succeeds in doing so, it will open the way for direct access to Transnistria, located between Ukraine and Moldova.

Russia says it wants to protect people of Russian descent while conducting operations in the south. Transnistria is home to about 29 percent of the population. However, the number of people of Ukrainian descent is not less here (23 percent).

Let's talk about Transnistria. This region is located on the Ukraine-Moldova border. The area is about four thousand square kilometers. The population may be between four and five lakhs. The territory is internationally recognized as part of Moldova. Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Artaxerxes, these three regions are not independent countries. The first two regions are under Russian control. But Transnistria is like an independent state. The government, the currency, the parliament, and the police are all there in this region.

Moldova declared independence during the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the Russians living in Transnistria opposed it and wanted to stay with the Soviet Union. But there was a clash. Despite the ceasefire agreement, the Russian military maintained its position on the pretext of securing it. About 1,500 Russian troops are still deployed, along with various heavy weapons and tanks. Despite the demands of Moldova and the United Nations, Russian troops are still stationed there.

But the funny thing is that even though Russia does not recognize Transnistria as an independent state, it is supplying gas there for free. It is even providing pensions to about 1.5 lakh residents. Doesn't that sound weird to you? Yes, it is strange but true. According to the Russian general, after the conquest of the whole of southern Ukraine, Transnistria will be connected to the mainland of Russia. This is a master plan.

In the interests of negotiations, Russia has been able to achieve this goal. In this way, they will achieve another strategic goal. If Ukraine loses control of the whole of the south, Ukraine will become a landlocked country. In other words, Ukraine's capacity as a state will be greatly reduced. But the question is, will Putin stop after that?

Just a few days ago, some government buildings in Transnistria were attacked. Russia has blamed Ukraine for this. But the people of Moldova are beginning to panic, perhaps trying to occupy Moldova centered around Transnistria. Moldova may also acknowledge Putin's attack.

Some military experts have predicted that Putin could take over the whole of Ukraine if the situation gets under control. The main reason for this is that if Ukraine and Moldova can be occupied, Russia will get the natural protection of the Carpathian Mountains in the west. As a result, Russia will have a strategic advantage in preventing ground attacks in any future war with NATO. Putin has nothing to believe. No wonder he tried. Such a possibility cannot be ruled out.

On April 26, Putin met with Russian lawmakers in St. Petersburg. One of his speeches was at the center of a global debate. "If an outsider tries to intervene in Ukraine and pose a security threat to Russia, we will react like lightning. We have weapons that can stop the pride of any country. We will not be proud of them but will use them if forced," he said.

Analysts say the rationale is that Putin could use ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons. Russia recently conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test. Russia claims that the 'Sarmat' missile will not deter any country's defenses. Russia's weapons in the Ukraine war have had a bad enough result. Russia has said in a statement that the missile test "could create fear in the West."

A meeting of defense ministers and representatives of 40 countries was held at Ramstein Airport in Germany, hosted by the United States. The main purpose of the meeting was to discuss how to provide more military assistance to Ukraine in the long run. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in response to the meeting that NATO was continuing its shadow war against Russia.

He said the conflict could escalate into World War III. The reason for his anger is that the Russian forces have faced catastrophes in the face of sophisticated weapons supplied by the Western world, especially the United States.

Ukraine has come under attack from Russia. Naturally, Ukraine's allies will help him in this war. How successful Ukraine will be with these weapons is debatable. But how long the war will last with these weapons is a matter for Ukraine to consider. In the last century, third countries have been involved in various wars for their benefit. There are many such examples.

By Max Kukurudziak on Unsplash

For example, in the war in Syria, Putin went directly into the war to keep Bashar al-Assad alive against the interests of the West. The city of Aleppo was reduced to rubble by Russian airstrikes, the worst in history. But then the Western world did not warn Russia of the threat of a third world war.

But in the current context, Putin sees aid to Ukraine as tantamount to outside intervention and threatens the West. Did he think he could easily occupy Ukraine? Just his plan to occupy Ukraine? The longer the plan, the easier it is to predict. Does Putin think that his occupation should be allowed to run smoothly in the Western world? Does he expect the world to indulge in its occupation to avoid World War III?


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