China's Deadly New Weapon That Could Turn the Tide of the Ukraine War

China's weapons can turn the tide of the Ukraine war

Russia has been selling arms to China for decades. From 2001 to 2010, Russia sold an average of $200 million worth of arms to China each year. In 2015, they signed a $5 billion arms deal with China. But now the situation is reversed. Since the start of the attack on Ukraine on February 24 last year, Russia has recovered 9,400 pieces of military equipment. This includes 1,500 tanks. Apart from this, Moscow has faced a shortage of ammunition while fighting for more than a year.

US intelligence believes that Beijing is considering supplying weapons to Russia. According to the current situation of the war, if China arms Russia, the momentum of the war may change. This will create a deep crisis in China's relationship with the United States and Europe.

The relationship between the US and China over the Taiwan issue is not good at all. In between, the relationship between the two countries has become more bitter after the Chinese balloon was detected in the sky of the United States. A war of words has started between the two countries. In the meantime, US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met and talked about disciplining Russia. At the same time, if China supplies arms to Russia, they will take action against them. China has been warned by the European Union that sanctions will be imposed on China if it arms Russia. However, China has not admitted to supplying weapons to Russia.

According to a report by the Economist, Moscow has requested arms support from China several times since the start of the Ukraine war. China has repeatedly pushed Moscow back. So far not only lethal, but also aided by weapons. China's aid to Russia includes helmets and aircraft parts. U.S. officials have not elaborated on what kind of arms assistance Beijing might provide to Russia. However, on February 23, the German magazine Der Spiegel claimed that the Russian army had discussed getting drones from China.

Russia is negotiating with Chinese President Xi Jinping about drones. China's Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology manufactures attack drones. Russian forces are trying to get this drone. Russian soldiers have been using such drones in the battlefield since last September. In particular, the use of drones has been seen in attacks on Ukraine's power infrastructure. According to Ukraine, Russian forces have used drones obtained from Iran in such attacks.

The day after Der Spiegel's report was published, the influential US newspaper Washington Post reported on Biden administration officials that Beijing is considering supplying ammunition to Moscow. Both Russia and Ukraine have been using Soviet-era caliber 122mm and 152mm shells in the war. However, Russia has run out of ammunition in this year-long war. In the meantime, the country has exhausted the stockpile of ammunition in Belarus. Received some ammunition from North Korea. But North Korea is worried about exhausting its ammunition. Moscow does not expect to get much from Iran.

China is now the name of Moscow's trust. They have enough ammunition. Lonnie Henley, a former Pentagon intelligence official, said that it is not possible to know much about the exact amount of ammunition that China has. But it will certainly be enough to deal with Russia's shelling crisis. This shell can make a big difference in the current conflict. Defense sectors on both sides are struggling to ramp up production.

Considering the current conflict, China's arms trade potential is huge. China is currently the world's fourth largest arms exporter. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the latest ranking places China eight out of the world's top 100 arms manufacturers. Among them, 7 Chinese companies are among the top 20. In this case, the position of China is after the United States. In recent years, sales of equipment made by China's top arms manufacturers have increased dramatically.

The Russia-Ukraine war has given China a great opportunity to recalibrate and rebalance its relationship with Russia. The country has been importing Russian military technology for a long time. Now the country can reduce the use of Russian weapons by exporting counter-technology. From 2017 to 2021, 81 percent of China's defense equipment came from Russia. These include engines for China's latest stealth fighter jets.

Michael Ruska, an analyst at Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said that the opportunity for China to become a partner in the Russian defense industry has come before China. China can help Russia overcome Western sanctions by sending technology and equipment needed for drones, cruise missiles and advanced weapons instead of sending useful equipment to Russia. China may ask for RD-180 rocket engine from Russia instead. Apart from this, submarine technology and jet engines can also be negotiated.

China's leaders are trying to hide from the war situation. Still, they don't want Russia to be disgraced on the battlefield. At least China will not accept Russia being humiliated by US rocket launchers and European tanks. That hint came weeks before the war in Ukraine began. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have declared 'infinite friendship' between the two countries. Some leaders in Beijing would certainly like to keep US military power away from the Asia Pacific and Europe.

But there are also some obstacles in the relationship between China and Russia. China is already angry with the Kremlin. A European official has claimed that Beijing is angry at the way the US is promoting the issue of arming Moscow. China wants to keep the cooperation a secret. If not, their position as impartial mediators will be questioned. On February 24, Ukraine's allies rejected the peace proposal made by China on the Ukraine war. If the cooperation with Russia becomes known, relations with the United States will become more toxic and relations with Europe will also be destroyed.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the United Nations, and Joseph Borrell, the European Union's foreign policy chief, warned that giving Russia lethal weapons was crossing a "red line".

China is proceeding very cautiously. Borrell said that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told him in a meeting on February 18 that China will not give any weapons to Russia. He also said that China does not send arms to any warring country. On February 24, US President Joe Biden also said in a tone of confidence that Wang Yi will keep his word.

It is believed that the Ukrainian forces will counterattack the Russian forces next spring or summer. If Russian forces become desperate to control the situation on the battlefield, China's tolerance will come under severe pressure.