Do You Remember When They Said It Would Strike The Atlantic?

Asteroid 99942 Apophis is one of many NEO asteroids. The size of Apophis is threatening at more than 300 meters. And, the truth of the matter is, that in 2004 when it first appeared on radar the initial calculations were that there was a small but believable possibility that it would strike Earth in April of 2029, somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

Since the expected trajectory has been figured, refigured, and refigured again over the past 18 years since the 2004 discovery, does anyone actually know for sure if it will hit Earth or not seems like a fair question?

Apophis

While scientists have seemingly ruled out an impact in 2029, this one will be extremely close to the earth and there are several years worth of unknown gravitational effects that could change its’ trajectory. In the case of Apophis, predicted to fly by the earth at a mere 19,800 miles, whether it hits or not it still poses a risk of interrupting our daily lives. 19,800 miles is well within the distance of Earth's communications and military satellites as well as within the distance of manned space stations.

During the 2029 flyby, it will be visible to the naked eye over the southern hemisphere. In the night sky, it will look like a speck of light moving east to west over Australia. While it’ll be mid-moring on the US East Coast, Apophis will start its’ journey from Australian skies, over the Indian Ocean, eventually crossing the equator over the continent of Africa.

When Apophis is at its’ closest “expected” approach to the Earth, just before 6 p.m. Eastern Time on April 13, 2029, it will be moving so fast it will cross the Atlantic Ocean in less than an hour. By 7 p.m. EDT, Apophis will have crossed over the United States.

As risky of an event as Apophis is, its name aptly comes from Egyptian mythology and in ancient times Apophis was referred to as the “God of Chaos.”

Coincidentally, Apophis will make this approach on Friday the 13th… So, for superstitious types, this will be one high-tension day. I’m going to guess on Thursday, April 12, 2029, the marijuana dispensaries and doctors prescribing anti-anxiety meds will see a surge in business.

History of Apophis

Discovered in 2004, by astronomers Roy Tucker, David Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi of the Kitt Peak Observatory in Tuscon Arizona Apophis has been of interest to the world ever since. As the original discovers only had two days to study their finding due to weather and technical difficulties, it was fortunate that a time at the siding observatory spotted Apophis again later in the same year.

The use of optical and radar telescopes has been keeping a very close eye on the alarming path of Apophis as it orbits the sun and scientists are confident in the trajectory they now believe Apophis will take in 2029. Current calculations indicated that there is a very small chance of Apophis having an impact on Earth, but they believe that will be many decades from now.

The most important observations of Apophis will occur during the 2029 flyby. The best minds around the world will study its size, shape, composition and hopefully will study its interior makeup.

Updates On Apophis

In 2020 Nasa issued a report that was posted on its’ official website that Apophis is the equivalent of two and a half football fields. The potential of an impact on earth equals the equivalent explosive force of 880 million tons of (trinitrotoluene)TNT exploding at the same time. Scientists calculate that if this were to happen the effect would be 65,000 times more destructive than the Hiroshima nuclear disaster.

It was in 2020 that NASA revealed the fact that Apophis had accelerated. The arrival for the fly-by in 2029 was originally scheduled for 2068 by earlier projections. Thus, it’s obvious that any projections can be altered by the effects of flying through space, gravitational effects, impacts with other space objects, and variables yet known as we explore space.

Instead of 19,800 miles from earth, the figures by scientists at the Hawaiian Observatory now put the distance at 19,400 miles.

At this time scientists predict that the chances of Apophis striking the earth are approximately up to 2.7%. So, what will many of us be doing on April 13th, 2029? Paying attention and keeping our fingers crossed? Considering that its trajectory has been the Atlantic Ocean, then 19,800 miles away from the surface, and is now 19,400 miles away as Apophis speeds up, I’d say it’s a safe bet that the world will be watching.

If Apophis Hits Earth

Should Apophis strike the earth it will no doubt leave devastation and be the greatest cataclysmic event of the modern age. But, what would that look like to 21st-century mankind?

The type of asteroid that Apophis is classified as is a city-killer. This could decimate a city the size of New York or Los Angeles. The devastation and the destruction would be nearly unfathomable if it weren’t for movies that have depicted the events.

Within an instant, New York would be lifeless, as a city of millions would die off within 25 miles of the impact zone. The resulting debris being shot into the atmosphere and the ash from the fires would carry across the rest of the country.

If Apophis were to strike in the Atlantic Ocean as it was originally believed it would, the result would be a tsunami that is five hundred or more feet high, stretching as far as fifty miles wide and traveling at 1000 miles per hour as it washes away an area of coastline. The expectations put the affected area for a city killer as far as twenty to fifty miles inland depending on the size, speed, location of impact, and composition of a city-killer-sized asteroid when it strikes in the ocean.

For a better idea of how bad things may get, in the event of an eventual asteroid collision with the planet, check out the video simulation done on History.com.

Will The Governments Of Earth Knowingly Tell Us The End Is Coming

Much like it’s depicted in the movies, the reality is that governments will keep any knowledge of a guaranteed strike by an asteroid under wraps as long as they possibly can. And they should.

The result of sharing such devastating news too soon will start the downfall of civilization sooner, rather than later. As we’ve seen in recent years, it takes very little in this world for riots, anarchy, and chaos to reign down on our streets. From country to country we’ve experienced riots, a racial movement that led to violence, cities were burning, destruction, and death.

Imagine if the fear of ultimately being annihilated off the face of the earth became a reality. The last days of humanity would become a nightmarish scene and emergency services would be overrun. We would see the worst in humanity.

So, it’s ultimately up to us, the civilian population, to stay informed of such potential events in the scientific and global communities. The use of the internet for more than just Facebook and surfing for adult fare will keep us more informed. That way, there’s a chance that more of us will carry on should the unthinkable become reality.

Final Thoughts

Besides the obvious hope that this never happens, why they intrigue me more and more is probably a question I’ll never be able to answer. That said, it’s comforting to know that there are such brilliant minds studying the possibilities of a threat to the planet and developing technologies to assure that we don’t suffer from extinction due to an impact with an asteroid. Hopefully, as these massive stone and ore composed beasts become more and more thought about, the world will come together at some point and realize how interdependent we are on each other to survive as a species.

It doesn’t appear to me that asteroids, meteors, or comets will care whether we are from the United States, Russia, or the UAE. So it’ll require all of us to defend against one of them eventually intruding into our little blue world in space.

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REFERENCES:

History.com

NASA.com

JPL.Com

Republicworld.Com

YouTube.com

NASA.Gov