It’s Not Just the Weather

Some say climate change is just the weather. For me, that is far from satisfactory. It's rather like saying light is just something we see or that sound is just something we hear. Even with no scientific background, our intuition tells us that deeper layers of knowledge exist - there is no “just” about it! Quick-off-the-mark soundbites are all too easy. We know there is more to the weather and climate.

Very Smart People

We’re lucky, we don’t have to do the hard graft to explain the science that underpins the chaotic nature of the weather. We have at our disposal a global army of meteorologists and climate scientists. They are our emissaries. Through their insightful knowledge, gained over years of study and experience, they tell us how the atmosphere works. They know how it governs our weather and climate. And they stand upon a firm, long-established foundation of climate science that goes back over a hundred years.

Sunshine and the Rain

Sunshine, rain, wind, snow, fog or frost, we experience a pallet of ever-changing meteorological conditions. Weather is short-term variability, season-to season, month-to-month, week-to-week, day-by-day, even hour-by-hour.

Climate is the long-term average of the weather, often over thirty years or more. And from the data collated over years and decades, whether for global average temperatures or regional precipitation, climate scientists can uncover trends in the data.

Yet climate is relatively new to our way of thinking. When in Victorian times geologists discovered evidence that ice sheets once covered large parts of the northern hemisphere, they concluded conditions must have once been much cooler for a long period. Fast forward to the present day, and science explains the various natural cycles that gradually alter the global climate over thousands of years or longer. But that is only part of the picture. We see from direct observation and measurement a recent and ongoing shift in global climate over the last couple of hundred years that natural cycles cannot explain. The change is too abrupt. The explanation that fits above all else are changes to the composition of the atmosphere. This is largely the result of burning fossil fuels. Most scientists agree on this, which are the same scientists that know and understand the natural processes responsible for past periodic episodes of long-term climatic change. Understanding past climate change is the key to understanding what is happening now and what may happen in the short and long-term future. Scientists are rather like crime scene detectives that piece together fragments of evidence.

For some, there is contention. Why not consider other explanations for short-term climate change? Solar cycles, sunspot activity, the gravitational effect from other planets in the solar system, cloud seeding, secret energy weapons or that mother nature is doing what she knows best. But none of these explanations fit with observation, measurement data or the science.

There is certainly nothing wrong with speculation. But alternative explanations will fall flat unless supported by evidence. They have nowhere to go, other than to circulate in the quagmire and downward spiral of conspiracy theory.

This may explain why on social media posts and on some broadcast media outlets, we sometimes see “it’s just” explanations. But without evidence and any depth, they are meaningless; a self-perpetuating loop of aimless narrative.

Simplicity That Goes Nowhere

Comment sections and text-based social media platforms foster an engaging interactive medium. But they also encourage short bursts of narrative of a few words, a sentence or paragraph or two. This lowers the bar for anything that requires detail and critical thinking. It encourages a lazy culture of quick-of-the-mark simplified explanations and responses that lack any depth. This is not good for society and provides the perfect conduit through which conspiracy theories spread.

Imagine a book about climate with only one page, on which is written: Climate - it’s just the weather. After laughing my socks off and feeling short-changed, I’d question why the author had left so much out. In fact, I’d wonder why they had bothered to write it at all!

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