IEA: China determines the future of solar photovoltaic

The main conclusions of the report include:

one

In 2016, solar photovoltaic grew faster than other fuels, ushering in a new era of solar power

1 thanks to significant cost reductions and policy support, global solar photovoltaic capacity boomed in 2016, growing by 50% to more than 74 Gw, with almost half of the increase coming from China.

2 the growth rate of solar photovoltaic is the highest for the first time, surpassing the net growth of coal.

3The annual output growth of wind power decreased by nearly 20% in 2016.

4 in the hydropower sector, despite strong growth in Brazil, the expansion of hydropower capacity is slower than in 2015 due to the third consecutive year of decline in the Chinese market.

(5) the growth of other renewable energy technologies, such as bioenergy, concentrated solar energy and geothermal energy, is relatively slow, accounting for only 4% of the new global renewable energy power production capacity in 2016.

two

China is the leader in the growth of renewable energy and power, which determines the future of solar photovoltaic.

From 2017 to 2022, global renewable energy power production capacity will grow by 92 Gw, or 43 per cent. This forecast is more optimistic than last year, mainly because of the increase in solar photovoltaic capacity in China and India.

2China contributed more than 40% to the growth of global renewable energy power capacity in 2016, thanks to the correct guidance of China's 13th five-year Plan capacity target and China's concern about air pollution.

3 China's solar photovoltaic demand and annual solar cell production capacity account for 50% and 60% of the total global solar photovoltaic demand and annual solar cell production, respectively. China's market and policy changes will have a global impact on the demand, supply and price of solar photovoltaic.

In order to meet the rising cost of renewable energy subsidies and the two major challenges of grid connection, China is carrying out ambitious electricity market reform, new transmission lines and distribution network expansion.

5 assuming that the Chinese government can meet policy challenges and remove development barriers, China's total solar photovoltaic capacity will reach 320 Gw by 2022, equivalent to Japan's total capacity.

6 if other major countries such as India, Japan and the United States can reform their policies and regulations, total global solar photovoltaic power generation is expected to triple to 880 Gw by 2022.

At present, China has exceeded its 2020 solar photovoltaic target and is expected to exceed its wind power target in 2019. In addition, China will be the global market leader in hydropower, bioelectricity and biothermal energy, as well as electric vehicles.

three

The United States is still the second fastest growing renewable energy market, and India's renewable power growth rate will surpass that of the European Union.

Despite policy uncertainty, the United States is still the second fastest growing renewable energy electricity market. Growth in new wind and solar capacity on land in the United States remains strong. However, there are still uncertainties in federal tax reform proposals and international trade and energy policies, which may affect the growth rate of renewable energy electricity.

2 the bidding system makes the prices of solar photovoltaic and wind power in India the lowest in the world (close to coal prices), and makes these two kinds of electricity account for 90% of India's electricity capacity increment.

At present, India is taking action to improve the financial soundness of public utilities and solve the problem of grid connection. It is estimated that by 2022, India's renewable energy power capacity will double from 2016, and its renewable energy power capacity growth rate will surpass that of the European Union for the first time, increasing by 33.33%. If this growth is maintained, India will keep pace with the United States to become the second largest incremental renewable energy market after China.

4Renewable energy electricity growth in the European Union fell by 40% in 2018-2022 compared with 2013-2017. There are still challenges to the growth of renewable energy power in the EU, such as weak electricity demand, overcapacity and limited transparency of real-time bidding capacity in some markets.

Offline capacity in developing Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will triple in 52022. The most dynamic household solar systems in the offline market will provide basic electricity services to nearly 70 million people in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, giving some low-income earners access to electricity services for the first time.

four

The competitiveness of renewable energy power generation is improving, and the gap with coal power is narrowing.

1 Global renewable energy generation reached a new high in 2016 and is expected to grow by 8000 Twh (TWh) by 2022, equivalent to the current combined electricity consumption in China, India and Germany. By then, the share of renewable energy in global electricity generation will rise from 24 per cent in 2016 to 30 per cent in 2022.

Although coal will remain the largest source of power generation in 2022, the gap between renewable energy generation and coal generation will narrow by 50 per cent to 17 per cent. At that time, hydropower will be the largest source of renewable energy, followed by wind, solar photovoltaic and bioenergy.

3The global average power generation cost is expected to decline further from 2017 to 2022, of which the average power generation cost of solar photovoltaic power is expected to drop by 25%, onshore wind power by 15% and offshore wind power by 66.6%. In addition, the promotion of competitive pricing can further reduce the average generation cost in the next few years.

five

With the accelerated growth of wind power and solar photovoltaic, system integration is becoming more and more important.

1 in the next five years, wind and solar power will account for more than 80% of global renewable energy capacity.

2 if the adaptability of renewable energy power supply system (including power grid strength, interconnection, reserves and other flexible supply) cannot be improved synchronously, volatile renewable energy may face the risk of losing system value in the market. When the supply of wind and solar power exceeds demand, wholesale prices are bound to fall. The market and policy framework needs to be adapted to meet multiple objectives simultaneously, including providing long-term price signals to attract investment, ensuring efficient short-term power dispatch, and developing a schedulable portfolio of renewable energy technologies.

six

With the increase in the proportion of electric vehicles, biofuels will still account for the largest share of renewable energy in the field of transportation.

1 the share of renewable energy in road traffic will grow only from 4% in 2016 to 5% in 2022.

Biofuels are expected to grow by more than 16% by 2022, accounting for 90% of the total renewable energy consumption in the road transport industry.

seven

Global consumption of renewable energy heating has increased by 25%, but its share has increased only slightly.

1 the proportion of global consumption of renewable energy heating in total heat consumption is slow, and is expected to grow from 9% in 2015 to 11% in 2022.

Thermal production processes used for hot water, building space heating and industrial processes produce 40% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, the decarbonization of thermal production still has a long way to go. The construction sector is expected to lead the growth of global thermal consumption of renewable energy.

3 as far as heat sources are concerned, bioenergy will dominate the growth of renewable energy heat consumption in 2018-2022, and global solar heat consumption is expected to increase by 33.33%.

4 due to the increase in the consumption targets of solar, biological and geothermal e