Grant us authority to shape climate policy, IPCC scientists say

Climate experts, dismayed by the sluggish progress in addressing climate change, are urging a significant restructuring and empowerment of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In a candid revelation to The Guardian, five lead authors of IPCC reports advocated granting scientists the authority to propose policies and potentially oversee their execution among the 195 nations aligned with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

This appeal follows revelations that the United Arab Emirates, slated to host Cop28, was aiming to strike oil and gas deals, raising concerns about conflicts of interest.

Sonia Seneviratne, an IPCC vice-chair and long-time coordinating lead author, stressed the need for a shift: "As climate change worsens, being policy relevant without being prescriptive becomes increasingly challenging."

She asserted that scientists should advocate for fossil fuel reductions and phaseouts, highlighting the disparity between IPCC science and the actual actions being taken, which appears nonsensical to the scientific community.

Gert-Jan Nabuurs, a coordinating lead author on multiple IPCC reports, expressed concerns about the diminishing role of the IPCC in providing critical, independent guidance. He lamented that the influence of nations seems to be growing while the IPCC's ability to make decisive policy statements diminishes.

The frustration among authors stems from their inability to be policy prescriptive, limiting their capacity to make strong recommendations about necessary actions. Some questioned the efficacy of producing assessment reports that, despite offering updated insights, face familiar challenges and yield little alteration in subsequent actions.

Emissions continue to surge, with projections indicating a 9% rise by 2030, in stark contrast to the warnings of imminent climate tipping points. To meet the Paris Agreement's goal of capping global heating at 1.5°C, emissions would need to plummet by 43% by the decade's close.

Julia Steinberger, a coordinating lead author on the latest IPCC assessment report, emphasized the impediment caused by the IPCC's inability to deliver robust, straightforward statements, such as the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels. She noted a pervasive self-censorship among scientists, hindering impactful communication beyond the confines of IPCC reports.

The upcoming Cop conference faces scrutiny due to concerns that vested interests, particularly from the fossil fuel industry, influence governmental decisions, undermining viable climate diplomacy.

IPCC's current model involves issuing comprehensive assessment reports every six to seven years, culminating in a summarized version for policymakers. However, the process of governmental review and amendments often leads to dilution of crucial scientific messages, raising questions about the report's efficacy.

There have been instances where scientific assertions, including identifying key contributors to emissions increase, were altered or omitted due to objections from powerful nations.

As the urgency to address climate change intensifies, voices within the IPCC are calling for a fundamental shift in its role, advocating for a more assertive stance to confront the global climate crisis. However, differing perspectives persist among IPCC scientists, with some cautioning against a hasty transformation, emphasizing ongoing improvements in collaboration and preparedness among participating nations.

Amidst these debates, the IPCC reaffirms its primary role of providing scientifically informed insights to support UNFCCC negotiations, emphasizing its policy-relevant but non-prescriptive approach. Growing concerns about representational inequities and limitations in accessing scientific resources from the Global South continue to challenge the IPCC's credibility and inclusivity.